The New York Jets are 7.5-point home favorites against the Denver Broncos in Week 4, the largest spread in New York’s favor since Week 8 of the 2015 season. Riding a two-game win streak across two matchups in which the Jets were favored, Jets fans feel confident that, for the first time in eons, their team will consistently win the games it is “supposed” to win.
While this game against Denver is surely one of those games New York is “supposed” to win (based on the point spread), it might not be as easy of a matchup as Jets fans think.
With an over-under of 5.5 wins entering the 2024 season, most people did not expect the Broncos to make much noise this season. Three games in, the Broncos are 1-2, so they have not done enough winning to quiet the doubters just yet.
However, their overall level of play has exceeded the low expectations that were laid out for them. Denver has a point differential of +6, which ranks 13th-best in the NFL. They have two one-score losses and a blowout road win over a team that made the Divisional round last year. They’ve pulled this off against a slate of teams with a combined record of 6-0 outside of their matchups with Denver.
Believe it or not, Denver’s +6 point differential is better than any of the first three teams on New York’s schedule: San Francisco (+4), Tennessee (-30), and New England (-18). This remains true even if you account for those teams’ games against the Jets. If you remove the Jets games, San Francisco moves to -9, Tennessee moves to -23, and New England moves to +3.
So, no, this Broncos team is not one that New York should take lightly. It’s fine to say the Jets “should” win if they truly are the Super Bowl contenders they want to be, but to say this is an easy matchup would be disrespectful to Denver.
Visit our New York Jets Analytics page to learn the advanced football numbers.
The main reason for Denver’s surprising competency has been a thriving defense. Denver is currently allowing the sixth-fewest points per game (15.3) and the third-fewest yards per game (259.3).
More specifically, it’s the Broncos’ pass defense that is keeping them in games. Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph has the Broncos ranked second-best in passing yards per game (133.3) and third-best in net yards per pass attempt (4.5). The run defense is less formidable, ranking 22nd in yards per game (126.0) and 16th in yards per attempt (4.4).
Denver’s success against the pass is somewhat surprising, given the unit’s lack of headliner talent. Cornerback Patrick Surtain II is the lone member of the Broncos’ defense with a Pro Bowl appearance to his name. Yet, Surtain II has not played up to his standards this year. He is tied for the most penalties among cornerbacks with five, while his Pro Football Focus coverage grade of 45.2 ranks 82nd out of 87 qualified cornerbacks (min. 100 defensive snaps).
So, with only one star on the unit – who isn’t playing well – how is the Broncos’ defense so good?
It’s easy: Their pass-rush by committee.
Denver has done a phenomenal job of getting after the quarterback this season. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, they have generated pressure on 44.8% of opposing dropbacks, the third-best rate in the NFL behind only the Jets (45.6%) and Texans (46.2%). They have excelled at finishing, too, as their 12.4% sack rate also ranks third-best (their 11 total sacks are the fifth-most).
Without any superstars to count on, the Broncos have pulled off their pass-rush success by drawing production from all over their depth chart. According to Pro Football Focus, the Broncos have 12 different players with at least two pressures this season, tying them for the most in the NFL with… the Jets.
Here are the Broncos players who have generated multiple pressures this season:
- DT Zach Allen: 18
- EDGE Jonathon Cooper: 11
- EDGE Nik Bonitto: 6
- DT Malcolm Roach: 4
- DT D.J. Jones: 4
- EDGE Dondrea Tillman: 3
- EDGE Jonah Elliss: 3
- LB Cody Barton: 3
- CB Ja’Quan McMillian: 2
- EDGE Baron Browning: 2
- DT Jordan Jackson: 2
- DT John Franklin-Myers: 2
Zach Allen is the leader of the unit. He is off to an All-Pro-worthy start, as his 18 pressures are the most among defensive tackles.
Outside of Allen, though, the Broncos do not have another defensive tackle or edge rusher who ranks top-15 at their position in pressures. Jonathon Cooper is the closest, ranking 19th among edge rushers with 11 pressures, but after Cooper, there is nobody else ranked even top-40 at their position in pressures.
Yet, this is still a defense allowing the second-fewest passing yards per game, fueled by the NFL’s third-highest pressure rate. It is not because of their star power, but because of their depth. Perhaps only Allen is worth fearing, but nobody on the field can be overlooked. Any Bronco can come get the quarterback at any time. That is a threat arguably even more terrifying than facing one or two superstars.
Denver’s well-rounded pass-rush production is fueled by Joseph’s reliance on the blitz. The Broncos have an NFL-leading blitz rate of 50%. No other team is even at 40%.
These blitzes have been very successful. Denver has generated pressure on 52.1% of its blitzes, ranked fifth-best.
Because of their high blitz rate and their high success rate on those blitzes, the Broncos are far more reliant on the blitz to generate pressure than any other team. A league-high 58.1% of Denver’s pressures came on plays where they blitzed. The league average is only 34.5%, and no other team is above 50%.
The bottom line: New York must be prepared to handle Denver’s blitz packages on Sunday.
Luckily, the Jets appear to match up well against a blitz-heavy defense. Aaron Rodgers has been successful against the blitz this year, ranking ninth-best among 35 qualified quarterbacks with 0.19 EPA (Expected Points Added) per dropback when blitzed. His 58.8% success rate is sixth-best.
A big part of Rodgers’ success has been the protection in front of him. New York is picking up blitzes very well. While Rodgers’ 41.2% pressure rate when blitzed is middle-of-the-pack (20th of 35), it is actually a strong number when considering his average time-to-throw when blitzed is a lofty 2.86 seconds, which ranks seventh-highest. It is unusual for a quarterback to be able to hold the ball that long against the blitz and only get pressured at an average-ish rate.
For perspective, as far back as this data is available (since 2019), there have only been three quarterbacks to finish a season (min. 200 dropbacks) with a sub-45% pressure rate when blitzed and a 2.80+ TTT when blitzed: Deshaun Watson in 2019, Baker Mayfield in 2020, and Lamar Jackson in 2022. This is a testament to the elite blocking that all three quarterbacks received; they each had offensive lines that ranked top-7 in PFF’s pass-blocking grade. Mayfield and Jackson’s were top-2. This shows how strong of a job the Jets are doing for Rodgers right now.
Here are a few examples of Rodgers making things happen against the blitz, particularly with great protection.
The Patriots bring six, and nobody gets close to Rodgers. Tyron Smith, John Simpson, Alijah Vera-Tucker, Olu Fashanu, and Jeremy Ruckert all handle their one-on-one reps, while Breece Hall helps out Joe Tippmann.
Rodgers signals to Hall pre-snap to stay in and pick up any inside pressure. Hall gets his hands dirty and does enough to keep Rodgers clean. Tippmann and Simpson also do a great job of clearing their defenders outside, preventing any sort of interior pocket cave-in that could affect the throw. Rodgers is able to get off a third-down conversion downfield against a six-man rush without being touched or even moved off his spot.
Rodgers’ pre-snap recognition allowed him to make a quick decision. The Patriots bring everyone up to the line of scrimmage to show a six-man pressure, vacating the middle of the field. Seeing this, Rodgers knows that if all six players come, Mike Williams’ slant route will send him into the vacated area against one-on-one coverage. As soon as Rodgers confirms the six-man rush, he instinctively turns to Williams and delivers the throw.
The Patriots bring five, and New York does enough to give Rodgers the time to go through his progressions. It takes approximately three seconds until Rodgers is forced to move here, which is plenty good protection against a blitz. Moses eventually lets up inside pressure, but then Rodgers shows off the mobility he rediscovered on Thursday night, extending the play to his right.
From there, Tyler Conklin makes himself available, and Rodgers hits him. This highlights one of the downsides of blitzing Rodgers. If you fail to take him down on a blitz and allow him to get outside of the pocket, you are forced to defend his vaunted scramble drill with fewer defenders in coverage. Rodgers will find the soft spots with ease in these situations.
While the Jets have protected well against the blitz, sometimes they don’t have to protect at all. Rodgers is capable of recognizing a blitz pre-snap and immediately exploiting the weakness it yields.
The Patriots are planning to bring six rushers here, which leaves Allen Lazard in an extremely advantageous one-on-one situation with no potential helpers nearby. Rodgers instantly spits the ball out to Lazard and lets him cook.
Rodgers’ decisiveness was the key to his success against the blitz last Thursday. He read the defense pre-snap, found his favorite answer to a potential blitz, and hit it with confidence when he confirmed the blitz post-snap. The four-time MVP was anything but hesitant, which is the last thing a quarterback can be if he wants to beat the blitz. Hesitancy is what got Baker Mayfield into trouble against Denver’s blitzes last week.
The Broncos bring five here, including a linebacker and a safety who each start five yards off the ball. There is plenty of time for Mayfield to find a solution here, and he has plenty of options.
He initially wants the tight end, but is deterred by the dropping outside linebacker. That shouldn’t have stopped him, though; the tight end has outside leverage, and that slow outside linebacker is not keeping up if Mayfield leads the tight end outside. Instead, Mayfield double-clutches and gets sacked by the late-arriving safety, who flies into the backfield unblocked.
In addition, Mayfield could have gone one read deeper and hit the receiver who clearly had the leverage to separate on an out route beneath Surtain’s soft bailing coverage. On the other side of the field, if Mayfield recognized the blitz pre-snap, he would have seen that he had No. 10 one-on-one on a deep corner into the area vacated by the blitzing safety, resulting in him getting a step on his defender.
It was a great disguise by Denver, though, so you have to give Joseph credit. There is nothing tipping off that they were going to blitz two off-ball players who were that far off the line, especially considering the down-and-distance (2nd & 10). Still, the consequence of blitzing defenders from that far away is that you give the QB more time, and Mayfield did not take advantage due to his hesitancy.
This is another play where Mayfield’s hesitancy causes him to miss an opportunity and get sacked by a safety blitzing from way off the ball. Denver brings seven rushers while the Bucs only leave one back in to protect, giving them a 4-on-4 down the field. This leads to No. 14 being open for a touchdown on an out route up top if Mayfield leads him toward the pylon. Mayfield starts his progression on that route and sees it, but mysteriously turns it down.
Mayfield progresses to the other side of the field and is looking toward his tight end, who is breaking wide-open on a post route after getting a pick from the wide receiver on that side. Mayfield again hesitates and begins to panic, buying time for a safety who started all the way in the end zone to come get him.
Again, give Joseph credit for the creative timing and makeup of his blitzes. This is another second-down play, which is not a time offenses expect to see a blitz. And, just like the first sack, Joseph does a good job of hiding the potential blitz threats by bringing players who are far off the ball. It is a risky move, as it makes the blitz take longer to get home, but it works great if its unusual nature spooks the quarterback into playing hesitantly, which the Broncos successfully did to Mayfield last week.
Blitzing is a risk-reward proposition. The reward is that it increases your odds of pressuring the quarterback. The risk is that it presents the quarterback with better options. Blitz-heavy teams are willingly handing the offense golden opportunities. They are just betting that your quarterback won’t find them because he is too frazzled by the pressure and the complexity of blitz packages.
As long as Rodgers remains as prudent and decisive against the blitz as he looked against New England, the Jets’ offense should be in a good position against Denver. Joseph’s blitz packages may have led to a successful last couple of games against Mayfield and Justin Fields, but Rodgers should be able to punish Joseph for using the same high-risk, high-reward blitz packages. The opportunities were there last Sunday. Mayfield was simply too rattled to convert on them.
On Sunday, the Jets will face a surprisingly respectable Broncos team. That surprising respectability is buoyed by their defense, which is buoyed by their pass defense, which is buoyed by their pass rush… which is buoyed by their league-high reliance on the blitz.
Beat the blitz, beat the Broncos. It’s that simple for Aaron Rodgers and the Jets. Find the holes, strike them with confidence, and score points.
