Hackett couldn’t hack it, so it all comes down to Downing.
Interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich has essentially handed full control of the New York Jets offense to passing game coordinator Todd Downing, stripping offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett of his responsibilities. While their titles have not changed, Ulbrich said that Downing “will have the full say on the game plan and ultimately the plays that are called within the game.”
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This will be Downing’s fourth season as an offensive play caller. He previously served as the offensive coordinator for the 2017 Raiders and the 2021-22 Titans.
Downing is tasked with rejuvenating a wildly disappointing Jets offense. To do it, he must impose multiple changes to the team’s offensive philosophy.
It is impossible for Downing to completely overhaul the scheme in-season. The Jets will likely continue to run the same playbook they worked on all summer. However, it is possible for a fresh perspective to immediately alter how the offense approaches game planning during the week and play calling on gameday. Downing has the chance to create an entirely new identity within the same offensive scheme.
On Wednesday (before we knew the Jets were demoting Hackett), I wrote an article highlighting three changes I believe Ulbrich should push to instill in the Jets’ offensive scheme:
- More pre-snap motion
- Less predictability when using motion
- Decreasing usage of multi-TE packages
Now that we know Downing is in charge of the offense, we can look to his past to get an idea of whether he is the right coach to accomplish these goals.
Of course, Downing’s decisions at his previous stops are by no means an indicator of what he will do for the Jets in 2024. These are different teams with entirely different rosters and coaching staffs, and Downing is allowed to change his philosophies over time. Not to mention, he is inheriting an offense in-season that he did not establish in the summer. So, just because he did something in 2021 with the Titans, it does not mean he will do it in 2024 with the Jets.
Nonetheless, it is interesting to take a look back and see what Downing has done in the past. While it cannot tell us everything, it can give us a slight idea of what he might bring to the Jets as their new offensive leader.
Let’s take a look at Downing’s tendencies with pre-snap motion, predictability, and personnel packages.
Pre-snap motion
Motion data from NFL Next Gen Stats is unavailable before 2018, so we unfortunately cannot get any data on the Raiders’ pre-snap motion in 2017. We will focus on Downing’s 2021-22 run with Tennessee.
It should be noted that the Titans were already a motion-heavy team before Downing took over. Under offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, the Titans ran pre-snap motion on 66.2% of their plays in 2019, the fourth-highest rate. They dropped a bit to 62.5% in 2020, but that was still fifth-highest.
Downing maintained Smith’s heavy reliance on motion. In 2021, the Titans ranked sixth with a motion rate of 61.5%. They declined slightly to 60% in 2022, although that dropped them six spots to 10th, as the league average for motion usage has increased yearly.
Overall, across the two-year sample, it can be said that Downing moderately decreased the Titans’ motion usage relative to the league average compared to Smith. Still, he had them in the top 10 in each of his two seasons.
This would be a major increase compared to the Jets’ current motion usage. Through the first five weeks of 2024, the Jets are ranked 31st with a motion rate of 46.5%. That is 16.2% below the 2024 NFL average of 62.7%.
Downing, on the other hand, had the Titans 7.8% above the league average in 2021 and 3.5% above the league average in 2022. If we average those two margins, we get 5.7%. If Downing maintains that margin compared to the 2024 NFL average, it would give the Jets a motion rate of 68.4%.
This is obviously hypothetical. We know Aaron Rodgers has publicly stated his preference to avoid using motion, so it will be interesting to see where the Jets end up now that they have a play caller with a history of using motion at a high rate. I would guess that we will see the Jets increase their motion from where it was over the first five weeks, although not quite to the levels Downing reached in Tennessee.
Predictability with motion
In my Wednesday article, I criticized the Jets’ predictability when using pre-snap motion this season.
There is a 19.7% disparity between the Jets’ run-play rate when they use motion (45.9%) versus when they do not (26.2%), which is the sixth-largest in the NFL. This makes it easy for opponents to use the Jets’ motion as a tip-off. If the Jets use motion, there is a good chance of a run. If they do not use motion, they are very likely to pass.
New York’s predictability is even worse on early downs. On first or second down, the Jets have a 24.8% disparity between their motion run rate (53.1%) and their no-motion run rate (28.3%), which is the fourth-largest in the NFL. They are too prone to calling run plays with motion on early downs, and they are too pass-heavy when motion is not used.
If I can identify these tendencies as some random guy on the internet, then so can NFL scouting departments. The Jets are allowing their opponents to get one step ahead of them.
Does Downing’s history suggest he can thwart this issue?
There are promising signs. Downing did a great job of keeping the Titans unpredictable on motion plays in 2021. Tennessee ran on 50.4% of its motion plays and 44.2% of its non-motion plays. That 6.3% margin ranked 20th in the league – right in the middle of the pack, which is exactly where you want to be.
In the middle of the leaderboard, the Titans were joined by all of the league’s best offenses. They were two spots behind the Bills (7.6% margin), one spot ahead of the Cowboys (6.2%), two spots ahead of the Buccaneers (5.6%), and three spots ahead of the Chiefs (5.6%) – those were the top four highest-scoring teams in 2021. Clearly, it pays to avoid being too run-lenient or too pass-lenient on motion plays. Don’t allow your motion usage to be a hint of what’s coming, and you have a chance to thrive.
However, Downing played things much differently in 2022. That season, Tennessee ran on 58.6% of its motion plays and 33.2% of its non-motion plays, a whopping 25.4% margin that ranked fourth-highest in the NFL. None of the top six teams in that category (New Orleans, Washington, LA Rams, Tennessee, Green Bay, and Pittsburgh) made the playoffs.
To be fair, Downing was dealt a miserable hand in 2022. Star receiver A.J. Brown was traded in the offseason, left tackle Taylor Lewan missed all but two games, multiple other starting linemen missed at least five games, and starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill missed five games. Tennessee’s top three receivers in targets ended up being 30-year-old Robert Woods, journeyman tight end Austin Hooper, and first-round bust Treylon Burks.
With all of those blows to the passing game and Derrick Henry healthy for the entire season, it is not surprising that Downing leaned so heavily on the run game. Still, even if you want to be a run-heavy team, it is never ideal to tip your opponents off. Downing must prove he can return to his 2021 balance now that he has a healthy and well-rounded Jets roster.
Personnel packages
My final plea to Ulbrich was to ditch the team’s reliance on 12 personnel packages (1 RB/2 TE/2 WR). The Jets are using them very often despite having no justification for doing so.
New York has used 12 personnel on 26.6% of its plays, ranked eighth. However, they are averaging 3.3 yards per play when using 12 personnel, ranked 30th. That is not a healthy balance.
With nothing to offer at the tight end position beyond Tyler Conklin, it is time for the Jets to stop pretending they are a heavy-personnel, smashmouth football team and focus on spreading the field with either 3-WR sets or 2-RB sets. That is what the makeup of their roster calls for.
What are Downing’s preferred personnel packages?
This time, we can check in on Downing’s 2017 numbers with the Raiders. That season, the Raiders used 11 personnel (1 RB/1 TE/3 WR) on 71.3% of their plays, fourth-highest in the NFL. They were 26th in 12 personnel usage at 12.8%. Downing liked to sprinkle in some 13 personnel (1 RB/3 TE/1 WR), using it on 6.3% of their plays, ranked eighth.
That distribution would make plenty of sense for the Jets. 11 personnel should be New York’s bread-and-butter. There is never a situation where the Jets are better off having Jeremy Ruckert or Brenden Bates on the field over Mike Williams. Use the multi-TE packages to change the pace and give Williams or Allen Lazard an occasional breather, but 3-WR sets should be the bread-and-butter of this offense.
Out in Tennessee, Downing’s personnel tendencies looked much different than they did in Oakland. Much like the current Jets, the Titans wanted to be a heavy-personnel offense.
Here are the Titans’ top four personnel packages in each of Downing’s two seasons; for comparison, I included the 2017 Raiders’ rates in the same four packages:
- 2017 Raiders: 71.3% 11 personnel (4th), 12.8% 12 personnel (26th), 6.3% 13 personnel (8th), 0.0% 21 personnel
- 2021 Titans: 56.6% 11 personnel (23rd), 22.4% 12 personnel (11th), 9.4% 13 personnel (3rd), 4.9% 21 personnel (14th)
- 2022 Titans: 52.8% 11 personnel (25th), 24.4% 12 personnel (6th), 12.5% 13 personnel (1st), 4.1% 21 personnel (17th)
In each of Downing’s two seasons, the Titans used either 12 or 13 personnel on over 31% of their plays. They also ranked bottom-10 in 11 personnel usage each year.
Considering the vast difference between Downing’s tendencies in Oakland and Tennessee, it is difficult to know what his personal preferences are. Those were different teams with different head coaches and different rosters. We don’t know how much those numbers were actually influenced by Downing.
It should be noted that Tennessee was already playing this style under Arthur Smith, so it seems like Downing was just going along with the identity his team had already established. Here are the Titans’ numbers in their two seasons under Smith:
- 2019 Titans: 51.2% 11 personnel (25th), 28.7% 12 personnel (5th), 9.9% 13 personnel (1st), 3.9% 21 personnel (21st)
- 2020 Titans: 39.3% 11 personnel (30th), 32.6% 12 personnel (2nd), 9.5% 13 personnel (3rd), 10.1% 21 personnel (10th)
Downing’s heavy-personnel leniency in Tennessee seems like a product of the Titans’ pre-established identity rather than an indicator of his personal philosophy. It should not rule out the possibility that he decides to slice the Jets’ 12 personnel usage.
In fact, if there is anything worth taking away from Downing’s personnel tendencies in Tennessee, it’s how much he decreased the team’s heavy-personnel usage compared to Smith. After Smith had the Titans using 11 personnel just 39.3% of the time in 2020, Downing immediately pushed them up to 56.6% in 2021. That was still low relative to the rest of the NFL (ranking 25th), but it was a major change compared to his predecessor.
The Jets need Downing to do the same thing. They are overusing heavy personnel packages and need to become an 11 personnel-reliant team to be the best version of themselves.
Final takeaways
All of the numbers presented in this article should be taken with a grain of salt for the reasons we have already mentioned a few times. We don’t know how much Downing’s previous stops tell us about his personal preferences or philosophies. They were two short stops with teams who already had pre-established identities when he took over. His stint with the Jets will fall under the same umbrella.
Downing’s offense with the Jets will look like a hodgepodge of many different things. It is unlikely to stray too far from the Jets offense we’ve already seen, so there will still be plenty of influence from the base established by Nathaniel Hackett, Robert Saleh, and Aaron Rodgers. However, Downing will have a chance to sprinkle in different ideas from each of his previous three seasons as an offensive coordinator, along with some new ideas he may have picked up along the way. Jeff Ulbrich will also add his two cents.
Overall, though, I found Downing’s tendencies from his previous three seasons to be encouraging.
Downing used pre-snap motion at an above-average rate in Tennessee, showing that he is open to embracing modern NFL trends. Most of the league’s top offensive coaches are heavily relying on pre-snap motion, and the Jets probably need to catch up if they are going to be successful offensively.
There are also signs that Downing can fix the Jets’ issues with predictability. In the one season when the Titans had a healthy and operational passing game, Downing displayed impressive unpredictability with his usage of motion, rivaling some of the best offenses in the NFL.
Regarding personnel packages, Downing has not adhered to any single philosophy. He ran a spread-out offense with the Raiders and used heavier packages with the Titans, suggesting he is willing to mold to the strengths of his roster. I also found it promising that he boosted Tennessee’s usage of 11 personnel in 2021, as that is exactly what the Jets need right now.
I will stop short of suggesting that Downing is a genius who will transform the Jets into a juggernaut overnight. Still, there are many indicators that he is at least a decent offensive coach, which makes him likely to be an upgrade over Nathaniel Hackett.
