Despite sitting at 2-4, the New York Jets are “all-in,” as Aaron Rodgers boldly proclaimed on Tuesday.
After trading for Davante Adams, the Jets’ goal is clear: go on an incredible run over the final 11 games to make the playoffs. Pulling that off will be difficult, as the Jets don’t have much more wiggle room after their 2-4 start.
Visit our New York Jets Analytics page to learn the advanced football numbers.
The minimum requirement to reach the playoffs is typically 9 victories, a total that has been enough for the AFC’s seventh seed in two of the past three seasons and seems likely to be enough this season based on the weak makeup of the AFC (the seventh seed is currently the 3-3 Colts). To reach 9 wins, the Jets need to finish on a 7-4 run (.636 win percentage).
However, you cannot rule out that the Jets might need 10 wins to get in, as that was the requirement for the AFC’s seventh seed in 2023. In that case, they would need to finish 8-3 (.727 win percentage).
Either way, this .333 football team must become, at the very least, a .636 football team for the rest of the way, which essentially means they must become twice as good at winning football games. That’s not easy to pull off, but if anybody can do it, it’s a team with as much talent as this Jets squad.
Alongside their overall talent, the addition of Adams, and an apparently major upgrade at offensive play caller, there is one more factor working in the Jets’ favor: their remaining strength of schedule (SOS).
According to DVOA, a metric that evaluates overall team strength based on play-by-play efficiency and SOS, the Jets have faced the NFL’s sixth-hardest schedule so far. However, they face the easiest schedule in the NFL over the final 12 weeks.
Here are the teams with the easiest remaining SOS based on DVOA:
- 32. New York Jets (-10.1% DVOA)
- 31. Cincinnati Bengals (-10.0%)
- 30. New Orleans Saints (-6.9%)
- 29. Washington Commanders (-6.5%)
- 28. New England Patriots (-6.1%)
- 27. Miami Dolphins (-5.8%)
- 26. Buffalo Bills (-5.3%)
- 25. Kansas City Chiefs (-4.9%)
- 24. Philadelphia Eagles (-4.7%)
- 23. Baltimore Ravens (-4.3%)
The Jets’ remaining opponents have a DVOA of -10.1%, which essentially means they are collectively 10.1% worse than the average NFL team. That is only a hair ahead of the 31st-ranked Cincinnati Bengals – another high-ceiling 2-4 team who the Jets will be fighting against for a wild card spot – but the Jets and Bengals are in a class of their own. The gap between the Bengals (-10.0%) and the 30th-ranked Saints (-6.9%) is 3.1%, which is larger than the gap between the Saints and the 23rd-ranked Ravens.
Long story short, the Jets have an incredibly easy remaining schedule relative to the rest of the NFL. That buffer could be vital for them as they face the steep challenge of needing to win at least seven of their remaining games to make the playoffs.
Here are the Jets’ remaining opponents and their ranks in DVOA:
- Week 7 @ Pittsburgh Steelers (16th / 3.8%)
- Week 8 @ New England Patriots (29th / -33.8%)
- Week 9 vs. Houston Texans (6th / 21.1%)
- Week 10 @ Arizona Cardinals (22nd / -7.9%)
- Week 11 vs. Indianapolis Colts (19th / 1.4%)
- Week 13 vs. Seattle Seahawks (14th / 8.9%)
- Week 14 @ Miami Dolphins (31st / -40.8%)
- Week 15 @ Jacksonville Jaguars (27th / -27.4%)
- Week 16 vs. Los Angeles Rams (25th / -13.1%)
- Week 17 @ Buffalo Bills (7th / 18.1%)
- Week 18 vs. Miami Dolphins (31st / -40.8%)
The biggest question is whether Tua Tagovailoa returns in time for the two games against Miami, and whether he is healthy enough to significantly boost their performance. Otherwise, this is certainly a favorable slate for the Jets.
None of this matters if the Jets don’t start playing better football, though. Other teams view the Jets as a winnable game on their schedule. The Jets are 21st in DVOA (-7.8%), just one spot ahead of the Cardinals and two spots ahead of the Giants. If their quality of play remains the same, the Jets will be the “better” team in just six of their remaining games, based on current DVOA rankings. That will not get it done.
Regardless of who they face, it is on the Jets to stop shooting themselves in the foot. Whether they have faced great teams or mediocre teams, most of the Jets’ issues to this point have been self-inflicted. If they can finally get to a point where they consistently perform up to their talent level, they have a favorable path to the playoffs. They are capable of looking like the substantially stronger team in nine of their 11 remaining games, and at least on par with the Texans and Bills.
We’ve been making these types of statements for six weeks, though. Until the Jets prove they’re anything different, they are who they are. Time is running out to start looking like the team they’re “supposed” to be based on the flashy names that comprise their depth chart. With Adams in the fold, there are no more excuses. You think you’re an elite team? Then start playing like it and shred your way through this 32nd-ranked schedule.
We gotta GO, and we gotta do it NOW !
— Garrett Wilson (@GarrettWilson_V) October 15, 2024
