As is tradition in western Pennsylvania, the Pittsburgh Steelers are enjoying another elite defensive season. Through six weeks, Pittsburgh ranks second-best in the NFL with 14.3 points per game allowed. Across their four victories, Pittsburgh has allowed only 9.8 points per game.
However, the Steelers are only 10th in defensive DVOA, a metric that aims to capture play-by-play efficiency while adjusting for opponent quality. While that is still good, it is not nearly as elite as their rank in points per game. This is largely because the Steelers have benefited from facing the NFL’s fifth-easiest schedule of opposing offenses based on DVOA. They have also benefited from the league’s fourth-best average starting field position.
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So, the Steelers defense is undoubtedly strong, but perhaps it is not as infallible as its No. 2 ranking in points per game would suggest. There are holes to be exploited, and the New York Jets must target them if they wish to be successful in what feels like a must-win game.
New offensive play caller Todd Downing was impressive in his first game taking over for Nathaniel Hackett, making multiple changes that steered the Jets in a positive direction. Downing showed he knew how to mold the Jets’ offensive identity into something that was a much better fit for the players on their roster. He increased their usage of pre-snap motion, decreased their usage of heavy personnel packages, and increased their usage of 11 personnel.
Now that he’s shown an understanding of how to mold the Jets offense to its players’ strengths, the next step for Downing is to show he can mold a game plan around the opponent’s weaknesses.
Let’s dive into the main ways Downing should try to exploit this Steelers defense.
Air it out!
There is a large disparity between the quality of Pittsburgh’s pass and run defenses. Take a look at their ranks against the run:
- 3.6 yards per rush attempt (2nd)
- -24.4% run defense DVOA (5th)
- -0.27 EPA per rush attempt (1st)
Compared to their ranks against the pass:
- 6.0 net yards per pass attempt (16th)
- 4.3% pass defense DVOA (15th)
- -0.07 EPA per dropback (14th)
Trying to establish the run on Pittsburgh’s defense is a futile proposition. They have allowed 4.2 yards per attempt or fewer in all six of their games this season, well below the league average of 4.5. They’ve even faced two of the league’s four highest-graded run-blocking teams (per PFF) in the Colts (1st) and Falcons (4th), and those teams’ running backs combined to run for 3.9 yards per attempt.
This is not the week to stubbornly adhere to the old-school adage of “you got to stick with the run game!” If you know your run game is likely to continuously go nowhere, whereas the opponent’s pass defense is exploitable, why even bother with the run game? Pass plays are already more efficient than run plays in a vacuum, and that disparity is exacerbated against teams that are far worse against the run than the pass. You would be foolish not to try and challenge these kinds of teams with as many passes as possible.
Especially when your team has freakin’ Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, and Garrett Wilson.
I’m not saying the Jets should never run the ball, but this is an ideal week for the Jets to utilize a pass-heavy game plan, particularly early in the game to set the tone. For an example of how effective this philosophy can be for New York, look no further than the Jets’ Week 3 game against New England, one of Hackett’s few bright moments as the Jets’ OC.
Against a Patriots team that entered the game allowing 233 passing yards per game but only 58 rushing yards per game, the Jets came out and passed on seven of their eight opening-drive plays. The drive resulted in a punt from New England’s side of the field due to a drive-killing penalty, but you could see the Jets had a good mojo and were in for a positive night.
The following drive, they drove 73 yards for a touchdown. Having backed the Patriots off on the first drive with their pass-heavy approach, the run game thrived on the second drive, as the Jets ran on three of the drive’s first five plays for 26 yards (with all three carries gaining 5+ yards). They then quickly pivoted back to a pass-heavy approach, passing on the drive’s final three plays.
Downing should write a pass-heavy script to open the game in Pittsburgh. Forget trying to establish the run on one of the NFL’s sturdiest defensive lines. That is a recipe for some quick three-and-outs and an early 10-0 deficit before the Jets start passing every play and then shockingly score more points as a result. Go pass-heavy before you’re forced to. Set the tone by immediately attacking Pittsburgh’s weaknesses. Come out of the gates aggressively challenging their pass defense, setting up the run game to be successful later on when they soften up to adjust for the pass.
You can bet the farm that a Robert Saleh/Nathaniel Hackett-led team would have stubbornly tried to “establish the run” early in Pittsburgh, aiming to “protect the ball” and “enforce their will” to try and win a gritty defensive-led game in a cold road environment. Blah, blah, blah, you know the archaic cliches. But Downing’s debut game suggests he might be the type of guy who won’t fall into that outdated trap.
Yes, the Jets ran the ball much better last week against Buffalo, but that was against a Bills defense that entered the night ranked 32nd in yards per rush attempt allowed. Pittsburgh is second-best. You have to know your opponent.
The Jets have Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, and Garrett Wilson. Go into Pittsburgh and rain fire on that middle-of-the-pack pass defense.
But you might be wondering – how is the Steelers pass defense “middle-of-the-pack” with T.J. Watt on it?
That brings us to our next key.
Get it out quickly to neutralize their pass rush and challenge their tackling
The formula against Pittsburgh’s pass defense is pretty simple. If your quarterback holds onto the football, the Steelers’ outstanding pass rushers will wreck your game. But if he can consistently get the ball out quickly, the Steelers’ secondary is ripe for the picking.
Pittsburgh is allowing 0.35 EPA per dropback on plays where the QB releases the ball in under 2.5 seconds, ranked second-worst in the NFL. However, on plays where the QB holds the ball for more than 2.5 seconds, they are allowing -0.35 EPA per dropback, ranked fifth-best. It is quite literally night-and-day.
Led by the superstar pairing of Watt (4.5 sacks, 15 pressures) and Cameron Heyward (3.0 sacks, 22 pressures), the Steelers have one of the most formidable pass rushes in the NFL. Pro Football Focus ranks the Steelers’ pass rush as the second-best in the league.
The Steelers are highly opportunistic, excelling at forcing game-changing mistakes when the pass rushers are given time to get home. Pittsburgh is tied for the NFL lead with seven interceptions on plays where the QB held the ball for over 2.5 seconds. Watt also forced a strip-sack that Pittsburgh recovered.
However, opponents have been able to find success against the Steelers’ pass defense by mitigating the pass rush. Pittsburgh’s opponents have averaged 2.51 seconds from snap to throw, third-fastest in the NFL. Not only does this help prevent Pittsburgh’s pass rushers from affecting the game, but it exploits the biggest holes in their defense.
When you get the ball out quickly, you challenge the Steelers’ inability to prevent YAC. Against quick passes (<2.5 seconds), the Steelers have allowed 1.3 YACOE (YAC Over Expected) per reception, ranked fifth-worst in the NFL. This essentially means that, on each reception, they allow more than one full yard after the catch than the receiver is expected to gain in that specific situation. That adds up to a ton of bonus yards and first downs over the course of a game.
On top of that, Pittsburgh is much less adept at forcing mistakes against quick throws. They have yet to record an interception against a quick pass; only four other teams have faced more quick passes without an interception.
The lack of takeaways is a major reason why quick passes are such a vital kryptonite for Pittsburgh. This defense relies heavily on takeaways to be successful, ranking sixth-best in the league with a takeaway on 17.7% of opponent drives. You completely remove that advantage by getting the ball out quickly.
Pittsburgh’s quick-pass struggles can likely be traced back to lackluster coverage talent at cornerback and linebacker. Each of the Steelers’ top three cornerbacks (Joey Porter Jr., Donte Jackson, and Beanie Bishop Jr.) and each of their top three linebackers (Patrick Queen, Payton Wilson, and Elandon Roberts) have a PFF coverage grade below 60.0 (about league average). PFF grades can be wonky, but this correlates with Pittsburgh’s inability to prevent YAC on quick passes as a team. Considering that the pass rush is so dominant, yet the overall pass defense is average, it seems reasonable to suggest that these two units are likely to blame.
The Steelers’ starting safeties (Minkah Fitzpatrick and DeShon Elliott) are both among the highest-graded safeties in the NFL, but getting the ball out quickly keeps the ball away from them while it highlights the cornerbacks and linebackers. So, it’s not just the Steelers’ elite pass rush you’re avoiding by throwing the ball quickly, but their excellent safeties, too. Pittsburgh’s two best defensive units both rely on the QB to hold the ball to be their most effective.
The two teams to defeat Pittsburgh also happen to be the two teams who had the most success at exploiting them with the quick pass. Dallas (W 20-17) averaged 0.57 EPA per dropback on quick passes in its win over Pittsburgh, the Steelers’ worst mark of the year, while Indianapolis (W 27-24) averaged 0.55, the Steelers’ second-worst mark.
The key to mimicking Dallas and Indy’s success is to get the ball out to playmakers in the shallow part of the field and let them cook. Dallas’s average quick pass traveled only 2.0 air yards, and it worked great as the Cowboys averaged 8.0 YAC per reception on those plays. Overall, they went 16-of-19 for 151 yards on quick passes, with 129 of those yards coming off YAC.
Indianapolis was a bit more aggressive, averaging 5.2 air yards per quick pass attempt, but that’s still very shallow. The Colts completed 13-of-15 quick passes for 117 yards and a touchdown, gaining 57 of those yards off YAC.
Aaron Rodgers and the Jets are equipped to copy this plan. Rodgers is averaging 2.54 seconds to throw this season, ranked third-fastest out of 31 qualified quarterbacks. He has thrown the ball in under 2.5 seconds on 55.4% of his dropbacks, the league’s second-highest rate.
Supported by the incredible pairing of Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson, Rodgers has the weapons he needs to consistently shred the Steelers with quick passes.
Adams might not be the most dynamic YAC player at this stage of his career, but his precise route running and innate chemistry with Rodgers should allow him to separate quickly for short receptions on a routine basis. Quick passes were the duo’s bread-and-butter during their time together in Wisconsin.
This duo is the very last one on Earth that Pittsburgh should want to see tonight with its struggles against quick passes:
Meanwhile, Wilson is a dynamic YAC threat who showed last Monday what he can do when he is fed YAC-faciliating throws. On 4 receptions off quick passes against Buffalo, Wilson gained 35 YAC (8.8 per reception). The Jets need to get him opportunities to catch the ball over the middle with a head of steam so he can exploit Pittsburgh’s issues with preventing YAC.
Downing must emphasize building the passing game around Pittsburgh’s strengths and weaknesses. Save the long-developing stuff for another game. If Rodgers stands back there too long, Watt and Heyward will find him, and the opportunistic Steelers secondary will take the football. But as long as Rodgers gets it out quickly, the Steelers are as soft as any defense in the NFL.
