Every offseason, the debate reemerges: Who are the NFL’s top 10 wide receivers, and is Garrett Wilson among them? We will try to answer both questions in this article.
This is part two of my offseason player ranking series. I posted the top 10 defensive tackles last month. Now, it is time for wide receivers.
Since being drafted 10th overall in 2022, Wilson immediately asserted himself as one of the NFL’s most promising young receivers. He is only the fifth player in NFL history to record at least 80 receptions and 1,000 yards in each of their first three seasons.
Wilson is off to a phenomenal start. But is it good enough to crack the NFL’s top 10?
Methodology
To evaluate every wide receiver from 2022 to 2024, I compiled and sorted Pro Football Focus (PFF) data. By combining various metrics from this data – some volume-based, some efficiency-based – I came up with a custom metric that I call “X-Grades.”
I calculate the X-grades using a weighted combination of a player’s percentile rankings in various metrics. Here is a detailed breakdown of what comprises the X-Grade of a wide receiver.
- 12.5% yards per game
- 10.0% yards per route run
- 7.5% receptions per game
- 7.5% contested catch rate
- 7.5% YAC per reception
- 5.0% targets per game
- 5.0% catch rate
- 5.0% yards per reception
- 5.0% missed tackles forced per reception
- 5.0% drops per target
- 2.5% touchdowns per game
- 2.5% passer rating when targeted
- 12.5% PFF overall grade
- 7.5% PFF receiving Grade
- 5.0% PFF drop Grade
Through this breakdown, the X-Grade comprises 25.0% per game volume, 25.0% PFF Grades, and 50% efficiency statistics.
I limited the analysis to 96 players with at least 750 pass plays from 2022 to 2024. Among this group, the average X-Grade was 44.8.
For the PFF grades, I calculated a weighted average by accounting for playing time each season.
When creating this system, one of my biggest debates was whether I should use total statistics or efficiency. In the end, I decided that using per-game statistics, along with PFF grades and efficiency, gave a better overall picture than totals. This method still gave weight to high-volume producers even if they missed a handful of games.
Now that the system is set up, let’s dive in.
The NFL’s top 10 wide receivers since 2022
The NFL is littered with talented wide receivers. While there are still some veteran stars, players drafted from 2019 to 2021 have emerged as some of the best of the bunch.
These were the top 10 wide receivers from 2022 to 2024, according to X-Grades.
- Justin Jefferson, MIN: 80.9
- Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET: 79.7
- A.J. Brown, PHI: 78.9
- Tyreek Hill, MIA: 75.7
- Nico Collins, HOU: 75.5
- CeeDee Lamb, DAL: 75.0
- Puka Nacua, LAR: 74.5
- Ja’Marr Chase, CIN: 72.4
- Stefon Diggs, BUF/HOU: 66.7
- Brandon Aiyuk, SF: 65.3
Leading the way is Minnesota Vikings superstar Justin Jefferson. The fifth wide receiver selected in 2020, Jefferson hit the ground running and has never slowed down. He averages a ridiculous 100.4 yards per game over the last three years, 10 more than the second-place finisher. A player with no weaknesses, he pairs his high volume with elite efficiency.
Following him is Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown. St. Brown was a bit of a surprise, but after looking closer at his performance, it makes sense. He ranks top-10 in 11 of the 15 metrics that I used. St. Brown simultaneously has some of the best hands in the NFL (1st in PFF drop grade, 2nd in catch rate, 14th in contested catch rate) while also being targeted at the 10th-highest rate.
Behind St. Brown is the Philadelphia Eagles’ A.J. Brown. In the three years since being traded to the Eagles, Brown has racked up over 250 receptions, 4,000 yards, and 25 touchdowns to go along with three second-team All-Pros. Brown is the most physically dominant receiver on this list, using his size to box out DBs and power through tackles.
Coming in at number four is veteran wide receiver Tyreek Hill. Hill leads all receivers in yards the last three seasons (4,468), ranks third in receptions (319), and is sixth in touchdowns (26). Hill’s elite speed makes him a home run threat any time he touches the ball.
Rounding out the top 5 is the most surprising player to me so far, Texans wide receiver Nico Collins. Collins has missed 14 of 51 possible games, but he’s excellent when on the field. Collins leads the NFL in contested catch rate (63.6%) and is fifth in yards per route run (2.64).
The biggest surprise of the top 10? The NFL’s highest-paid non-quarterback, Ja’Marr Chase, finished as the 8th-best wide receiver.
In per-game statistics, Chase is arguably the best in the NFL, ranking first in touchdowns, second in receptions, and fourth in yards. Even his efficiency isn’t a major drop compared to the players ranked ahead of him.
What separated Chase from the other top receivers was his yards per route run. The Bengals call an extremely high volume of pass plays (NFL-high 37.5 pass attempts per game since 2022), so Chase’s production doesn’t look quite as efficient when you account for this. In addition, his PFF grades were the lowest or second-lowest of the top 8 receivers.
Rounding out the top 10 are Stefon Diggs and Brandon Aiyuk.
We’ve broken down the top 10 receivers. One player who is noticeably absent? Garrett Wilson.
So, where does Garrett Wilson rank?
Here is where Wilson ranks among the 96 wide receivers with 750 pass-play snaps. The metrics included in the X-Grade formula are bolded.
- Targets: 454 (4th)
- Receptions: 279 (7th)
- Receiving yards: 3249 (10th)
- Receiving touchdowns: 14 (T-30th)
- Yards after catch: 1154 (12th)
- Missed tackles forced: 66 (2nd)
- Contested catches: 40 (T-11th)
- Targets per game: 8.9 (9th)
- Receptions per game: 5.5 (14th)
- Receiving yards per game: 63.7 (23rd)
- Receiving touchdowns per game: 0.27 (48th)
- Yards per reception: 11.7 (69th)
- Yards after catch per reception: 4.1 (49th)
- Missed tackles forced per reception: 0.24 (4th)
- Catch rate: 61.5% (72nd)
- Contested catch rate: 38.1% (80th)
- Drops per target: 3.08% (27th)
- Passer rating when targeted: 82.4 (85th)
- Yards per route run: 1.69 (42nd)
- PFF overall grade: 77.9 (22nd)
- PFF receiving grade: 79.3 (20th)
- PFF drop grade: 76.3 (29th)
- X Grade: 55.9 (25th)
When it comes to total statistics, Wilson can hold his head high. He’s top 12 in targets, receptions, receiving yards, missed tackles forced, and contested catches. He is the Jets’ passing game. Unfortunately, it’s not a very good passing game.
What separates Wilson from the NFL’s elite is his efficiency. Of my eight efficiency statistics, he’s above the 50th percentile in only two and below the 40th percentile in four.
The biggest surprise is the difference between his forced missed tackles and yards after catch. He avoids tackles at a top-five rate, but it doesn’t translate to more yards after catch than the average receiver. Wilson would sometimes benefit from planting his foot and pushing upfield instead of trying to make defenders miss.
The other area that sticks out is his contested catch rate, especially compared to his volume of opportunities. Wilson has among the most contested targets in the league, allowing him to finish 11th in total contested catches (40), but he is near the bottom in contested catch rate (38.1%).
There have been plenty of missed touchdowns and first downs that Wilson needs to secure to be among the best. While nobody can catch all of them, there have been too many missed opportunities.
While he can improve, context is important. Wilson has the second-most contested targets (105) behind DK Metcalf (114) since 2022. It’s at least encouraging that a physical player like Metcalf isn’t much better than Wilson at contested catches; Metcalf comes in just ahead at 38.6%. And given the Jets’ quarterback play, it’s not hard to imagine Wilson’s opportunities were more difficult than average.
In the end, Garrett Wilson is one of the most talented and productive wide receivers in the NFL. But there are still parts of his game he needs to improve on to truly be considered among the best.
Other takeaways
What else did I learn from this analysis?
The NFL’s top wide receiver duo from 2022 to 2024 came from Philadelphia. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith lead the way with a total X-Grade of 138.6. Here’s the top 5:
- 1. A.J. Brown (3rd, 78.9) & DeVonta Smith (19th, 59.7): 138.6
- 2. Puka Nacua (7th, 74.5) & Cooper Kupp (13th, 63.6): 138.1
- 3. Tyreek Hill (4th, 75.7) & Jaylen Waddle (24th, 56.3): 132.0
- 4. Justin Jefferson (1st, 80.9) & Jordan Addison (33rd, 50.9): 131.8
- 5. Ja’Marr Chase (8th, 72.4) & Tee Higgins (20th, 58.6): 131.0
The 2020 and 2021 draft classes have taken over the position. Six of the top 10 wide receivers and nine of the top 20 were selected in those two years.
Wide receiver is a young man’s game. While there are some highly rated veteran receivers, most of the top 40 wide receivers have been drafted in the last five years.
What’s next for Garrett Wilson?
As Wilson heads into his fourth season, the expectation is that he’ll sign a lucrative deal. Most projections have him making at least $25 million, while some even exceed $30 million. Teaming back up with his college quarterback, Wilson is hoping to take another step as a player.
To do that, he simply needs to be more consistent. He’s shown the ability to make spectacular catches, but he needs to consistently come up with those tough catches in big spots. He has the ability to make defenders miss, but he needs that to translate into more yards. Attacking the football instead of letting it come to him would help in several categories.
What separates Wilson from the best is simultaneously a razor-thin margin and a large gap. The top 10 receivers aren’t significantly better in most categories, but they have no weaknesses, either. It’s up to Wilson to clean up his game and take that final step to superstardom. The Jets will need him to, as the rest of the wide receiver unit isn’t encouraging.
The Jets’ projected No. 2 wide receiver is Josh Reynolds, who ranked 60th out of 96 receivers in X-Grade (38.0). While that’s enough to be considered a low-tier WR2, his grade is driven by efficiency rather than production. Meanwhile, Allen Lazard doesn’t offer much hope, coming in 80th with a 27.5 X-Grade. His 12.4% drop rate ranks 95th of 96 qualified receivers.
Tight end Mason Taylor is a talented prospect, but rookie tight ends rarely produce at even an average starter level. The rest of the tight end room doesn’t offer much hope. Running back Breece Hall is an excellent receiver, but his future with the Jets is murky after an offseason of trade rumors.
While the rest of the receiving options aren’t inspiring, there are reasons to believe Wilson can take the next step and carry the load.
For one, he will benefit from reuniting with his college quarterback, Justin Fields. Wilson was Fields’ favorite target on a team that featured six wide receivers drafted in the first round. In the NFL, Fields helped unlock D.J. Moore for the best season of his career.
Wilson will arguably have his best offensive coordinator in Tanner Engstrand as well. While Engstrand is unproven, he offers the potential to be an upgrade over Nathaniel Hackett and Mike LaFleur (although LaFleur was dealt a bad hand). Wilson’s skill set translates well to the Lions’ YAC-based scheme and Moore’s usage with Fields.
While Jefferson, Chase, and Nacua took the league by storm in year one, most players take some time to reach their ceiling. If all goes right, we may have yet to see the best version of Garrett Wilson.
