If I had to choose one word to describe the 2024 New York Jets season thus far, it would be… “inexplicable.”
The pieces are all there. Nearly everyone has remained healthy. This was supposed to work.
Yet, somehow, the final product arguably looks even worse than it did over the past two seasons. It is difficult to explain how it could be possible for the Jets to perform this poorly with the talent they have on the field.
No facet of this football team embodies the “inexplicable” label more than its rushing attack.
Among the many areas where it seemed like the Jets were poised to improve in 2024, the run game seemed like the safest bet to take a step forward. The Jets already had one of the league’s most talented running backs, and he was set to enter the season fully healthy after entering the previous year coming off an ACL injury. They supplemented him by bolstering the offensive line with three veterans who run-blocked effectively in 2023. To top it all off, they were set to finally have a respectable quarterback under center, preventing defenses from stacking the box as frequently.
The only question mark seemed to be health, and the Jets haven’t had any issues there. Breece Hall and Aaron Rodgers have played every game, and the five offensive line starters have missed just two out of 35 possible starts. The most important offensive lineman for the run game, Alijah Vera-Tucker, has not missed a start.
Despite all of the pieces seemingly falling into place perfectly, we are left with results that even the football gods could not offer an explanation for.
In 2023, the Jets’ run game generated -0.21 EPA (Expected Points Added) per attempt on carries by running backs. This ranked 29th in the NFL.
Surely, even in a worst-case scenario, the Jets would rank much higher than 29th in 2024, right? After all, the 2023 offensive line saw players like Laken Tomlinson, Mekhi Becton, Carter Warren, and Max Mitchell play over 100 run-blocking snaps. A cooked Dalvin Cook carried the ball 67 times; this year’s squad has Braelon Allen in the same role. There is no way the Jets aren’t substantially better than 29th in 2024 with the pieces they have.
Well, here we are. Through seven games, the Jets’ run game has generated -0.19 EPA per attempt on RB carries. This ranks 28th in the league – just one spot ahead of last year’s team.
One. Spot. Ahead.
How?
It seems like an unfathomable phenomenon. When you peek beneath the hood, though, you can see a few possible explanations for why the Jets’ run game has been so underwhelming despite seemingly having everything it needs to succeed.
Allow me to try to explain the inexplicable. Here are three reasons the Jets’ run game is performing well below its apparent talent level.
Breece Hall’s creation
The reason the entire NFL world was so high on Breece Hall entering 2024 was that he did an incredible job of exceeding the expectations laid out for him in 2023. In a brutal situation, Hall managed to put up great numbers. With a seemingly improved situation in 2024, it was easy to envision him performing like a superstar if he exceeded expectations to the same degree he did in 2023.
While it is debatable whether the situation around Hall has actually improved thus far, at the very worst, the Jets’ situation is not any less favorable than last year’s. The problem is that Hall has not been as effective at creating his own production independent of the blocking.
In 2023, Hall ranked sixth among RBs with 146 Rushing Yards Over Expected (RYOE). This metric is calculated by using GPS tracking to determine how many yards the runner should be “expected” to gain on each play based on the quality of the blocking. Hall’s top-six ranking was a testament to his ability to exceed the poor blocking in front of him.
Hall has taken a major nosedive in this category. In 2024, Hall has accumulated just 12 RYOE, which ranks 39th among running backs. He is averaging 0.1 RYOE per carry, which ranks 25th out of 42 qualified running backs (50+ carries). Compare that to his 2023 average of 0.7 RYOE per carry, which ranked sixth out of 49 qualifiers (100+ carries).
Essentially, Hall is merely getting what’s blocked up for him. That isn’t bad – there are quite a few running backs out there who gain less than what is expected – but it’s not special. He was special in 2023.
So, we know that Hall is not creating at the same level. But why? Taking that next step is where we range into truly “inexplicable” territory, so I might have to defer that one to the football gods. It is difficult to make sense of this type of drop-off from an extremely talented 23-year-old back who, to our knowledge, is fully healthy.
It’s speculative, but the only reasonable explanation may be that Hall is fighting through some sort of undisclosed ailment. As Rivka Boord detailed, Hall’s GPS numbers are noticeably down from last year. His max speeds on breakaway runs have been significantly lower. This is a sign that Hall may not be quite 100% healthy. Compare this breakaway against Buffalo in Week 6 to Hall’s fastest run from the 2023 season.
Offensive line chemistry
By just about any metric, the Jets’ run blocking has been poor this season. On RB carries, the Jets are 30th in yards before contact per carry (0.6) and 25th in expected yards per carry (3.8), according to NFL Next Gen Stats.
With the offensive line doing a poor job of creating running lanes this season, Hall is not going to get very far if he only picks up what is blocked for him. Thus, you get the Jets’ formula for failure. The Jets have an offensive line that is creating little room and a running back who isn’t adding anything on top of it.
Individually, I would argue the Jets’ offensive linemen have looked fine in the run game. When I watch the film, I rarely come away thinking, “Wow, this particular player is just getting cooked out there.”
There are numbers that corroborate this eye-test takeaway. The Jets’ offensive linemen have combined for a run-blocking grade of 67.4 at Pro Football Focus, which ranks 14th in the NFL among offensive line units (to be clear, this is solely looking at offensive linemen; all other positions are excluded).
The problem with using PFF grades to evaluate blocking is that the grades are focused on individual execution, whereas run-blocking is as much of a team effort as anything in the sport. All five linemen can throw a great block, making themselves look great on tape and possibly earning a nice grade from PFF, but if they let one defender run through unaccounted-for, it can ruin the play.
This is the primary reason why the team’s run blocking is so poor despite the linemen doing a decent job of handling their assignments individually. The talent is there, and it has performed reasonably close to expectations (although they are capable of better than 14th), but the group is not on the same page.
Here is a perfect stat to quantify this problem. The Jets’ RBs have been contacted at or behind the line of scrimmage on a whopping 50% of their non-loaded-box carries, the third-worst rate in the NFL. In other words, when the Jets have as many or more blockers than there are defenders in the box, their running backs are still getting hit in the backfield every other play.
If the box is not loaded, it means you have a hat for a hat. Every defender should be accounted for. Mistakes will happen sometimes (the league average rate is 39.5% of non-loaded-box RB carries resulting in contact at or behind the LOS), but it is flat-out inexcusable to allow contact in the backfield half the time in situations where the box isn’t loaded. That can only happen as a result of poor chemistry and communication.
Blocking from the tight ends
It is easy to blame the offensive line for every failed run, but other position groups play a role in the outcomes of run plays, too. Among the non-OL position groups, none plays a bigger role in the run game than the tight ends.
And no NFL team has a worse group of run-blocking tight ends than the Jets.
The Jets’ tight ends have combined for a run-blocking grade of 45.5 at Pro Football Focus, the worst of any tight end unit in the NFL. PFF grades can be faulty, but this undoubtedly aligns with the film. Jeremy Ruckert, in particular, has been a constant liability. Tyler Conklin is struggling mightily as well, but unlike Ruckert, he makes an impact as a receiver. Ruckert is on the team to block, yet he has significantly more negative reps than positive ones.
It only takes one blown block to ruin a run play. Every blocker in the scheme needs to pull his weight for a rushing attack to be consistently successful. Too often, the Jets’ tight ends have ruined otherwise well-blocked plays. No matter how much better the Jets’ offensive line gets, the run game will continue to be held back if the tight ends don’t improve their effort.
The Jets have the pieces to field a strong run game, but multiple facets of the team are vastly underperforming. Hall isn’t as special of a playmaker as he was, the offensive line is wasting its collective talent via poor chemistry, and the tight end unit is a destructive liability.
Fixing the run game starts with solving these three problems, and it certainly won’t be easy, as we’re already seven games in, and little has changed. This just might be who the Jets are. Ten games remain to change that.
