DISCLAIMER: I am not suggesting the following is remotely likely, nor am I predicting it will happen. I highly doubt that it will! I am simply pondering what might have to occur for an event with a 0.01% probability to transpire.
With that out of the way, let’s hop into it.
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The New York Jets are 2-6. At this point, if they want to ensure their spot in the playoffs without relying on tiebreakers, they will probably have to win out (9-0).
The AFC’s current sixth-seeded team, the Los Angeles Chargers, is on pace for approximately 10 wins. If the Jets lose even just one game the rest of the way, that would leave them at 10 wins, potentially putting them in a tiebreaker situation. Winning out would put the Jets at 11 wins, which would likely guarantee their spot.
Despite the Chargers’ 10-win pace, it’s worth noting that, since the league expanded to 30 teams in 1995, no AFC team with 10+ wins has ever finished below the conference’s 7th seed. That is likely to continue in a season where the NFC is substantially stronger than the AFC. So, there is a high chance that 10 wins would be enough for the Jets to get in, buying them the wiggle room to lose one game.
To take it one step further, there is still a realistic chance that a 9-8 finish would be enough for the Jets to get in. Below the seventh-seeded Chargers, who are one loss away from .500, no team on the outside of the AFC playoff picture is above .500. Only one team (Indianapolis) does not have a losing record. It’s a weak field, so 9 wins might be enough, in which case the Jets could still afford two losses.
If you’re a Jets player, though, none of these exercises should ever be crossing your mind. There is only one mindset: running the table.
Obviously, to do that, the Jets must take things week-by-week and focus on the task at hand. The Jets cannot overlook the team in front of them, as they so often do. But as a 2-6 team that is wildly underperforming, the Jets must operate with the mentality that they are completely out of chances to waste. Lose, and it’s all over. That should be the mindset from here on out.
There is no reason for Jets fans to believe that a 2-6 football team – particularly one that just lost to the dismal Patriots – is capable of finishing 9-0. But the Jets themselves have to buy into the possibility. If not, why even play the game?
For the Jets to finish 9-0, here are a few things that need to happen.
Aaron Rodgers’ ball security goes back to normal
Aaron Rodgers only threw one interception over his first four games, and it came off a tipped pass. Since then, he’s tossed six interceptions. He is now tied for sixth in the league with seven interceptions.
Rodgers cannot be a winning quarterback at this stage of his career if he is turning the ball over. He is no longer dynamic enough of a playmaker to overcome interceptions. Elite ball security needs to be the bread-and-butter of the value he brings to the offense.
Luckily, there is reason to believe Rodgers can get back to pitching shutouts in the interception column on a weekly basis. Despite ranking sixth in total interceptions, Rodgers actually has the third-lowest turnover-worthy play rate among qualified quarterbacks (1.5%), per Pro Football Focus. Only Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson are putting the ball in harm’s way less frequently.
Among the top five quarterbacks with the lowest turnover-worthy play rates, Rodgers is the only one with more than three interceptions – and he’s got seven of them. Essentially, he’s been very unlucky in the interception department. Whether it was the tip in San Francisco, Garrett Wilson’s drop on a perfect pass in Pittsburgh, or the two 50-50 balls to Mike Williams, Rodgers has come up on the wrong end of many passes that really should not have been picked off.
If Rodgers’ luck normalizes, he should get back to playing interception-free football, which will give the Jets a much better chance of winning these close games they tend to find themselves in.
Stars lock in and remember who they are
This one is targeted at a lot of players – probably too many for it to be possible that all of them turn it around. But if the Jets want to go 9-0, it can only happen if all of these players return to peak form.
Sauce Gardner looks like an everyday cornerback. With more holes across the defense than we’ve seen at any point since 2022, the Jets cannot even be a “good” defensive team, let alone a great one, if Gardner is playing like an average starter. They need the two-time first-team All-Pro to reclaim his superpowers if they have dreams of saving this sinking ship.
Is Gardner going to start attempting to tackle people again now that the Jets’ backs are to the wall? His effort as a tackler this season has been downright atrocious. When your best player is giving that type of effort, it becomes contagious. At times, it feels like nobody on the Jets defense is capable of making a routine tackle. If Gardner starts setting a better example with his effort, perhaps the rest of the defense will catch up.
Garrett Wilson has had easy drops, failed to get his feet in bounds, had the ball knocked out in contested situations, and is often not on the same page with his quarterback. His yards per target this season (6.8) is identical to his yards per target over his first two seasons, which should not be possible when going from Zach Wilson to Aaron Rodgers (even if it’s a declined version of Rodgers).
Wilson has shown signs of improvement recently, playing excellently in two of the Jets’ past three games, but in between those two contests, he had one of the most inexcusable and costly drops by a Jets receiver in recent memory. It’s time for Wilson to lock in and start focusing on doing the little things right so he can maximize his sky-high potential on a weekly basis.
Quinnen Williams started the season off ice-cold. He has played much better over the past few weeks. The Jets need that type of effort from him in every game going forward. The defensive tackle unit is barren beyond Williams, so if he is not playing like a superstar, the Jets are going to be Charmin Ultra Soft on the inside. That group will only be as strong as Williams makes them.
Davante Adams has looked like a JAG (“Just A Guy”) since coming over from Las Vegas. The Jets do not need him to be the 2020 version of Davante Adams, but they didn’t give up a third-round pick for him to catch a couple of slants and call it a day. At the very least, he needs to play like a high-end WR2 next to Wilson.
Adams has failed to secure multiple catchable targets. The Jets need him to haul in nearly everything that comes his way; even if he doesn’t attract the target volume that he used to, he can still be a reliable chain-mover simply through his strong hands. On top of that, Adams has also given questionable effort as a blocker. His speeches are not going to make an impact when his film shows this:
Not a great 2nd/3rd down sequence from Davante Adams in the red zone.
Easily disposed of on the 2nd & 1 run, then can't haul in a contested but well thrown pass on 3rd & 1 pic.twitter.com/wpLuRurrZX
— Michael Nania (@Michael_Nania) October 28, 2024
Something has been off with Breece Hall this year. He doesn’t quite look as elusive or explosive as he did in his first two seasons. Whatever he needs to do to tap back into that form, he must drop everything else and make it happen.
Haason Reddick is finally back. This is a man who came into the year with four straight seasons of 11+ sacks and a league-high total of 13 forced fumbles over that span. Let bygones be bygones, and run defense be damned – the Jets need him to rack up strip-sacks so they can finally start getting the game-tilting plays this defense has been allergic to. The Jets are 25th in takeaways and have not recorded one since Week 5. Reddick is their best potential solution to that issue.
It is impossible to explain why so many of the Jets’ superstar players have simultaneously been underperforming. Perhaps having their backs against the wall will snap them out of their funks. Or, maybe they just aren’t who we thought they were. It’s probably the latter, but if they want to go 9-0, they must use their desperation as fuel to tap back into the dominance they each know they are capable of.
Put the ball through the uprights
This is an obvious one, but the Jets are not going to have any type of sustained success without a reliable kicker.
Greg Zuerlein has missed an NFL-high six field goals, four of those coming in games where the Jets lost by three points or less. The Jets have benefited from some opponent misses, too, so it would be an exaggeration to say the Jets “should” have 4 or 5 wins right now if not for Zuerlein, but it’s safe to say that they would probably have one more win if they had a league-average kicker.
The Jets have not shown that they are capable of blowing teams out. They have one win by multiple scores through eight games, and it came against a rebuilding team (who beat the Jets later on). Barring a shocking jolt of life, the Jets probably aren’t going to start running people out of the building. Their key to getting hot is to start winning all of the close games, and having a reliable kicker is a vital aspect of that.
As bad as the Jets have looked, they have kept themselves within reach of a victory for the majority of their snaps this season. The opening game in San Francisco never felt particularly competitive, but other than that, the Jets have mostly stayed close. Four of their next five losses were by one score, and the Jets had a chance to seal the victory within the final two minutes of all four. Even in their loss to Pittsburgh, which ended up being by 22 points, the Jets led at halftime and were down by a touchdown entering the fourth quarter.
Unless the Jets mail it in and quit on the season, they have shown that they can at least be trusted to avoid getting run out of the building before the fourth quarter begins. They can make a run if they start tapping into some 2022 Vikings-esque luck in close games. To do it, they have to make kicks. Whether that is Riley Patterson or Spencer Shrader, New York’s kicker will be an essential part of attempting to turn this season around.
