Full disclaimer before we hop into it: I’m with you, New York Jets fans. In no way do I envision this hapless team making anything close to a “push for the playoffs.”
But as the Jets prepare for another football game, we do have to acknowledge what’s at stake for the team. As checked out as Jets fans might be, the players and coaches will still be motivated by a shockingly realistic chance at the playoffs for a 3-7 team.
Week 11 Matchup
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I know you’re about to roll your eyes, but the Jets’ Week 10 loss in Arizona was an NFC loss, so it had no effect on the Jets’ future conference-record tiebreakers within the AFC wild card race. In addition, the three teams ahead of them in the standings lost last week (Cincinnati, Indianapolis, and Denver). Because of these factors, the Jets’ Week 10 loss did not slam the door shut on their chances of making the playoffs in the event of a red-hot finish.
According to the New York Times, the Jets have an approximately 95% chance of making the playoffs if they win out and finish 10-7. In other words, if the Jets win each of their next seven games, there is only a 1-in-20 chance they will not get the help they need to earn a playoff spot. Of course, the odds of this heartless 3-7 team winning seven consecutive games are a completely different story, but it’s worth noting that the Jets can still get in with very little help if they handle their own business.
Even more interesting is that the Jets can still afford one loss and have a good shot at the playoffs – depending on who the loss comes against. In the event that New York goes 6-1 to finish 9-8, their odds of getting the required help to make the playoffs can go as high as 65%.
Here are the Jets’ odds of making the playoffs at 9-8 based on who the one loss comes against:
- Seattle or Los Angeles: 65%
- Buffalo: 60%
- Jacksonville: 59%
- Miami (either game): 57%
- Indianapolis: 45%
Losing to Indianapolis this week would be crushing for the Jets even if they win the remaining six games, as they would then cede the head-to-head tiebreaker to two teams they could end up tying for the seventh seed (Denver being the other).
If the Jets win, though, a 9-8 finish is currently projected to give the Jets a greater than 50% chance of making the playoffs regardless of who they lose to. The best-case scenario is to lose to an NFC team (Seattle or Los Angeles), but the odds are not much worse if the Jets lose one of the other games. Clearly, the New York Times’ system is not confident in the other AFC wild card contenders getting to 9 wins.
If you want to get really crazy, it is worth noting that the New York Times simulator believes the Jets would still have a whopping 30% chance of making the playoffs if they finish 8-9 with each of the two losses coming against NFC teams. This is the most truly shocking factoid. Ten wins are usually a lock for the playoffs, while 9 wins offer a strong chance in the 7-team era, so it’s not entirely surprising to see the Jets’ chances in those scenarios; it’s the Jets actually getting there that seems crazy. However, it is mind-blowing to know the Jets could still have a nearly 1-in-3 chance of getting in even if they lose two more games (provided they lose the right games).
The Jets are a bad football team, and it is preposterous to think they are capable of doing what must be done to make a run to the playoffs. Nonetheless, it is fascinating to know that they have an unusually strong window to make a final push if they somehow pull a magical turnaround out of thin air. The football gods have given this Jets team, quite literally, nine lives.
