Ah, November. It’s a crisp, cozy time of year that is known for its traditions, providing familiarity and comfort in a world ripe with everlasting change. The leaves are changing and falling. Thanksgiving is upon us. And the New York Jets are mapping out their upcoming offseason.
Let’s not waste any more ink on this meaningless intro. It’s time for a 2025 New York Jets mock offseason on November 18, 2024. Come along for the ride.
To be clear, this plan is my opinion, not my prediction.
Aaron Rodgers decision
Aaron Rodgers has already struggled mightily through 11 games this season. His mobility and accuracy have completely evaporated. Rodgers is currently averaging a career-low 5.5 net yards per attempt, which ranks 29th out of 36 qualified quarterbacks, slotting him between Justin Fields and Drake Maye. He is just the second quarterback in franchise history (joining Joe Namath in 1974) to begin a season with 11 consecutive starts in which he failed to throw 300 yards or lead the team to 30 points.
Six games remain for Rodgers to make his case to return in 2025. I don’t see anything changing, though, as Rodgers has not displayed any signs of progress from a physical standpoint. I believe Rodgers will struggle enough over the final six games to the point where the Jets have no interest in bringing him back. Considering his severely diminished on-field performance and the enormous distraction he provides off the field, cutting ties with Rodgers will be a no-brainer barring a major turnaround.
The Jets would owe Rodgers $49 million no matter how they cut ties with him this offseason (pre-June 1 cut, post-June 1 cut, or retirement), but they can push most of the dead money back to 2026 if they cut him with a post-June 1 designation. This would give New York $14 million in dead cap in 2025 ($9.5 million savings versus his $23.5M cap hit if he plays) and $35 million in dead cap in 2026. The numbers would be the same if he retires with a post-June 1 designation.
I think the Jets will inform Rodgers immediately after the season that they are ready to part ways, and then leave it up to Rodgers to decide how he wants to handle the breakup. If Rodgers wants to test the waters and see if somebody else will give him a starting job in 2025, they will cut him with a post-June 1 designation. If Rodgers wants to call it quits on his own terms and avoid having “cut by the Jets” on his resume, I can see them coming to an agreement where he decides to retire with a post-June 1 designation. Either way, this saves the Jets $9.5M in 2025 cap space while costing them $35M in dead money in 2026.
Rodgers takes the retirement route.
- Aaron Rodgers retires with post-June 1 designation (2025 cap space increases +$9.5M to $43.4M)
Regime changes
With Rodgers gone as soon as the offseason begins, the Jets’ head coach vacancy becomes much more appealing. They can offer a new coach the opportunity to build the organization entirely in his vision without being overshadowed by a below-average quarterback who needs to air out his dirty laundry on ESPN every Tuesday.
- Jets hire Mike Vrabel as head coach
Needing an enforcer to rebuild their culture, the Jets hire former Titans head coach Mike Vrabel.
I find it difficult to see the Jets attracting Vrabel or any of the top head coaching candidates if Rodgers stays with the team, but if they make it clear to candidates that he will be gone, I think the Jets become more attractive than people give them credit for. They have plenty of young, star-level talent, just waiting for the right leader to unlock their potential. Vrabel can set the right mindset for guys like Sauce Gardner, Garrett Wilson, and Breece Hall to become great winners, not just great players.
- Jets hire Brandon Sosna as general manager
At general manager, the Jets target a young, up-and-coming candidate in 31-year-old Brandon Sosna, who has helped turn around two of the NFL’s fastest-rising organizations. Sosna is currently in his first season as the senior vice president of football operations for the Washington Commanders. The Commanders’ team site describes his role as follows:
“In his role as senior vice president of football operations, Sosna will be the club’s lead contract negotiator, oversee a number of football operations departments, including analytics, health and performance and football administration and will be one of the club’s liaisons to the business operation. He will also play a major role in strategy around roster construction, the salary cap and the CBA. Sonsa reports directly to Washington Commanders General Manager Adam Peters.”
Prior to his role in Washington, Sosna served as the senior director of football administration for the Detroit Lions from 2022-23. In Detroit, Sosna “oversaw Detroit’s strategic planning and management of the salary cap. He was also the club’s chief contract negotiator,” according to the Washington team site.
Coaching staff
- Jets hire Tanner Engstrand as offensive coordinator
Vrabel goes outside of the box and targets an up-and-comer for the offensive coordinator role instead of somebody he’s connected to (his ties on the offensive staff from Tennessee are not impressive).
Tanner Engstrand, age 42, is currently in his second season as the Lions’ passing game coordinator. As the PGC for a run-first offense that heavily utilizes play action off of their success in the run game, he is the perfect complement to Vrabel, a gritty head coach who will likely try to mold the Jets into a physical team similar to how he molded the Titans.
- Jets hire Jim Schwartz as defensive coordinator
On the defensive side, Vrabel goes with a trusty veteran who is he connected to. Schwartz served as a senior defensive assistant under Vrabel for two seasons in Tennessee (2021-22), and he has served as the Cleveland Browns’ defensive coordinator for the last two seasons, overlapping with Vrabel in 2024.
Schwartz remains in Cleveland, but with the Browns’ season going off the rails, there could be major changes on the coaching staff after the season. If Schwartz is fired, look for him to follow Vrabel.
Options/extensions
The Jets will pick up the 2026 fifth-year options for Sauce Gardner, Garrett Wilson, and Jermaine Johnson.
Wilson is the only player extended by the team. Wilson signs a deal similar to the one signed by DeVonta Smith in 2024: a three-year, $75 million extension with $70 million guaranteed.
I do not have the Jets extending Gardner. He must prove he can bounce back in 2025, potentially leading to an in-season extension. If he causes trouble regarding his lack of an extension, the new regime can trade him for a haul of picks, similar to the Jets’ 2020 trade of Jamal Adams. As for Johnson, the new regime must evaluate how he looks following a serious injury before they can extend him.
Cuts/restructures
- Cap space sits at $43.4M following Rodgers retirement, per Over The Cap
Cuts:
- WR Allen Lazard ($6.55M savings/$6.63M dead)
- LB C.J. Mosley (Post-June 1: $4M savings/$8.78M dead)
- P Thomas Morstead ($2.55M savings/$0.5M dead)
- K Greg Zuerlein ($2.47M savings/$2.31M dead)
- TE Jeremy Ruckert ($1.39M savings/$0.21M dead)
- DE Micheal Clemons ($1.1M savings/$0.19M dead)
The Jets need to clear the Aaron Rodgers stink out of the building and allow the new regime to make its stamp on the team. Lazard has only been effective with Rodgers throwing him the ball; otherwise, he has been atrocious. Farewell.
New York is ready to pass the torch off to Jamien Sherwood at linebacker, making Mosley expendable. Zuerlein is an obvious cut. Morstead has been mediocre in 2024; the Jets can upgrade there. Ruckert and Clemons are liabilities.
- Cap space post-cuts: $61.5M
Restructures:
- WR Davante Adams (Bring cap hit down from $38.3M to $18.3M)
Adams remains a quality NFL receiver, but the Jets cannot afford to have him on the roster for a $38.3M cap hit in 2025. They could cut him to save $30M while only taking on $8.3M in dead money, but Adams still carries value for a Jets team with no depth at WR after Garrett Wilson, especially after cutting Lazard.
In my mock plan, the Jets come to an agreement to lower Adams’s cap hit to $18.3M in 2025.
- Cap space post-Adams restructure: $81.5M
Re-signings
- QB Tyrod Taylor (1 year, $7M – $5M cap hit in 2025)
- LB Jamien Sherwood (3 years, $15M – $4M cap hit)
- OT Morgan Moses (1 year, $6M – $4M cap hit)
- S Tony Adams (Original-round RFA tender – $3.2M cap hit)
- CB Brandin Echols (2 years, $8M – $3M cap hit)
- TE Tyler Conklin (1 year, $5M – $3M cap hit)
- IOL Wes Schweitzer (1 year, $2M – $1.5M cap hit)
- S Jalen Mills (1 year, $1.5M – $1.5M cap hit)
- S Chuck Clark (1 year, $1.5M – $1.5M cap hit)
- DT Solomon Thomas (1 year, $1M – $1M cap hit)
Taylor returns to serve as a bridge quarterback while the Jets patiently develop Jordan Travis and a young QB to be named later.
Sherwood gets a nice three-year deal that pencils him in as a starter. Adams returns on an original-round tender. Echols gets a shot to compete and replace D.J. Reed, who walks for a sizable contract in free agency.
Conklin is a decent starting-level tight end. Moses remains a solid fort-holding starter, and his tenacious play style is especially fitting for the Jets’ transition to a more power-minded offense. Schweitzer, Mills, Clark, and Thomas provide solid veteran depth.
- Cap space post-re-signings: $53.8M
Free agency
- S Budda Baker (4 years, $56M – $10M cap hit in 2025)
- DT Alim McNeill (3 years, $40M – $8M cap hit)
- CB Kristian Fulton (2 years, $18M – $7M cap hit)
- FB Reggie Gilliam (2 years, $5M – $2M cap hit)
- WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (1 year, $3M – $2M cap hit)
- WR DJ Chark (1 year, $3M – $2M cap hit)
- TE Mo-Alie Cox (1 year, $3M – $2M cap hit)
- EDGE Clelin Ferrell (1 year, $2M – $2M cap hit)
- EDGE Emmanuel Ogbah (1 year, $1.5M – $1.5M cap hit)
- LB Devin Bush (1 year, $1.5M – $1.5M cap hit)
- P Rigoberto Sanchez (2 years, $4M – $1M cap hit)
The main goal of the Jets’ free agency period is to make a statement on the defensive side of the ball. As-is, their defense is talented and athletic, but it has become soft. With these additions, the Jets reinvigorate their defense with aggression and physicality.
These additions are heavily influenced by the Jets’ schematic changes. Under Schwartz, the Jets’ defensive scheme will feature heavy usage of single-high coverages. The 2024 Browns rank third in single-high rate at 65.1%.
This is good news for Tony Adams, who can slide into a comfortable role as the Jets’ free safety, allowing him to play to his strengths in deep coverage without having to play as much in the box. The Jets will just need a physical box safety to play alongside him, and they get one with their biggest splash of the offseason, former Cardinals safety Budda Baker. He’ll bring much-needed tenacity to a Jets defense that has become soft in the tackling and run defense departments.
Further bolstering the fortitude of their run defense, the Jets nab former Lions behemoth Alim McNeill, a stout 315-pound presence who also provides juice as a pass rusher. He immediately becomes the best two-way player that Quinnen Williams has played alongside in his NFL career.
Cornerback Kristian Fulton comes in as the favorite to win the CB2 job opposite Sauce Gardner, although Brandin Echols will have a chance to compete for the job. Fulton was drafted by the Titans under Vrabel and started 35 games in Tennessee, recording four interceptions and 25 passes defended. His man-coverage skills make him a good fit under Schwartz, who runs a man-heavy scheme (CLE ranks fourth in man-coverage rate at 38.8%). In the midst of a resurgent season with the Chargers this year, Fulton has earned an 81.1 man-coverage grade at Pro Football Focus, fifth-best among CBs with at least 30 man-coverage snaps.
Emmanuel Ogbah fills the tweener defensive end role previously filled by John Franklin-Myers and Micheal Clemons. He is a large edge-setter on run downs who could move inside on pass downs if needed. Clelin Ferrell also has the size and length to provide decent run defense while bringing enough pass-rushing impact off the edge to be a viable rotation player with the second unit.
Offensively, the Jets focus on complementary additions.
At wide receiver, they add Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and DJ Chark, who each have connections to the new staff. Westbrook-Ikhine was drafted under Vrabel and played four years for him in Tennessee, while Chark played under Engstrand in 2022 and had his most efficient NFL season in multiple categories. Both players are downfield threats who can provide high yardage per reception on a low volume of targets, making them ideal complements to two high-volume target magnets in Wilson and Adams.
At tight end, Mo Alie-Cox hopefully breaks the Jets’ long-lasting search for a quality TE2. Alie-Cox has the fourth-best run-blocking grade at PFF this season, and he’s not a non-factor as a receiver, boasting 15 career touchdown receptions.
Reggie Gilliam finally gives New York the true fullback it has sorely lacked this year, ending the days of Solomon Thomas running goal-line routes and Tyler Conklin taking short-yardage carries. Gilliam has played 550 offensive snaps for the Bills since 2020, catching 14 passes for 111 yards and two touchdowns while bringing the thunder as a blocker at 244 pounds.
Rigoberto Sanchez takes over as the Jets’ punter. The 30-year-old ranks sixth in the NFL with 43.7 net yards per punt this season.
Our additions leave the Jets with $14.8 million in cap space entering the draft, plenty to sign their draft class and enter the season with wiggle room.
NFL Draft
- Round 1, Pick 7: Cam Ward, QB, Miami (FL)
- Round 2, Pick 39: Gary Zabel, OT, North Dakota State
- Round 3, Pick 71: Zy Alexander, CB, LSU
- Round 4, Pick 108: Simeon Barrow Jr., DT, Miami (FL)
- Round 5, Pick 143: Logan Jones, C, Iowa
- Round 6, Pick 181: Terrance Ferguson, TE, Oregon
- Round 7, Pick 221: Ryan Fitzgerald, K, Florida State
The Jets select Ward as their QB of the future. Enforcing a change of pace compared to their previous young QB selections, New York will take its time with Ward, penciling in Taylor as the starter with no competition.
Zabel will compete with Moses for the starting right tackle position. Alexander provides depth at cornerback. Barrow is a run-stuffing-minded defensive tackle who could immediately bolster the Jets’ interior sturdiness. Fitzgerald, who has made 30 of his 33 field goal attempts since 2023 (including 5-of-5 from 50+), takes over as the Jets’ new kicker.
Final results
Regime
- General manager: Brandon Sosna
- Head coach: Mike Vrabel
- Offensive coordinator: Tanner Engstrand
- Defensive coordinator: Jim Schwartz
Offense (25)
- QB: Tyrod Taylor, Cam Ward, Jordan Travis
- RB: Breece Hall, Braelon Allen, Isaiah Davis, Reggie Gilliam (FB)
- WR: Garrett Wilson, Davante Adams, Malachi Corley, Xavier Gipson, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, DJ Chark
- TE: Tyler Conklin, Mo Alie-Cox, Terrance Ferguson
- LT: Olu Fashanu
- LG: John Simpson
- C: Joe Tippmann
- RG: Alijah Vera-Tucker
- RT: Gary Zabel
- Backup OT: Morgan Moses, Max Mitchell
- Backup IOL: Wes Schweitzer, Logan Jones
Defense (25)
- DT: Quinnen Williams, Alim McNeill, Solomon Thomas, Simeon Barrow Jr., Leonard Taylor III
- EDGE: Jermaine Johnson, Will McDonald, Emmanuel Ogbah, Clelin Ferrell, Eric Watts
- LB: Quincy Williams, Jamien Sherwood, Devin Bush, Zaire Barnes
- CB: Sauce Gardner, Kristian Fulton, Michael Carter II, Brandin Echols, Zy Alexander, Jarrick Bernard-Converse, Qwan’tez Stiggers
- S: Tony Adams, Budda Baker, Chuck Clark, Jalen Mills
Special teams (3)
- K: Ryan Fitzgerald
- P: Rigoberto Sanchez
- LS: Thomas Hennessy
It feels bizarre to be doing this exercise in mid-November, but the Jets dug this hole for themselves. Whether you are a fan, media member, or writer, it’s hard not to be more focused on the Jets’ upcoming offseason than their upcoming six games.
We still have a very long way to go until we have a more concrete idea of how the Jets’ offseason might play out. How will players’ stocks rise and fall over the next six games? How will the draft board change? Which free agents will be tagged or re-signed? Which coaches are actually available? Will Aaron Rodgers return?
The variables are endless. This was merely a fun exercise to provide a glimpse of how the Jets might be able to dig themselves out of their current dreary predicament and back into a place of optimism by opening kickoff in 2025. So many of the moves I projected today might be considered highly unrealistic (if not impossible) by the time January rolls around. I also have a long way to go in my own evaluation of the 2025 NFL free agent and draft classes, so my opinions on some of these players could change as well.
So, take it all with a grain of salt. Nonetheless… how would you react to this offseason?
