When you’re a 3-9 NFL squad, you become less of a team and instead a group of players. The collective dreams of the franchise are burnt to a crisp, which means the outside world turns its focus to the individual dreams across the roster.
Here are five New York Jets players with the most to prove before the 2024 season ends.
Aaron Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers thinks it is “ridiculous” to suggest that he must use these next five games to prove himself worthy of staying with the Jets. Unfortunately for Rodgers, it is not ridiculous at all.
And it’s not just about the Jets. There is a strong chance New York’s new regime will not want Rodgers back regardless of how he finishes the year. If Rodgers wants to keep playing football, as he claims he does, then he is auditioning for the rest of the NFL, too. Because the way he has played so far, no team in the league is going to want him and his distracting presence in their building next year – at least not as a starter, and we know Rodgers is not accepting a backup role.
Is Rodgers the worst starting quarterback in football and worse than Zach Wilson? No, that would be an exaggeration. But is he comfortably situated as a bottom-10 starter at this stage of his career? It is difficult to argue otherwise.
According to NFL Next Gen Stats, out of 34 qualified quarterbacks, Rodgers ranks 32nd in completion percentage over expected (-4.9%), 31st in yards per attempt (6.3), and 26th in EPA (Expected Points Added) per dropback (-0.09).
In addition to his overall metrics being poor, there are underlying metrics that point to Rodgers being a liability who wastes favorable situations created by his supporting cast.
For one, Rodgers is brutal from clean pockets, ranking fourth-worst in the NFL with 6.2 Y/A when not pressured, per Next Gen Stats. Additionally, he frequently blows downfield passes to open targets. He ranks fourth-worst in the NFL with a 58.6% adjusted completion percentage (which counts drops as completions) on throws 10+ yards downfield to receivers with 3+ yards of separation.
Nobody is going to want this player as their starting quarterback. Rodgers has everything to prove over the next five games if he wants to play football in 2025.
Davante Adams
The Jets will have a big decision to make with Davante Adams after the season. His $38.34 million cap hit next season is absurd, so something must be done.
Luckily, the Jets can cut Adams to save about $30 million while only taking on about $8.4 million in dead money. However, with very little wide receiver talent on the roster outside of Garrett Wilson, the Jets could feel compelled to keep Adams instead of cutting him to create another hole. Considering they have the leverage to cut him, they are in an ideal position to renegotiate his contract to a more reasonable number if there is mutual interest in a reunion.
Before the Jets think about keeping Adams, he will have to perform better on the field.
Since he came to New York in Week 7, the Jets have fed Adams the eighth-most targets in the NFL (58), but he’s only 35th in receiving yards (344). He has been wildly inefficient, with his 5.7 yards per target ranking 47th out of the 51 wide receivers with 30+ targets over this span.
Part of Adams’ poor production is due to missed throws by Rodgers, but Adams deserves plenty of the blame for his own ugly numbers. His hands have been brutal in New York. Adams has the fifth-worst drop rate (13.9%) and second-worst catch rate over expected (-11.5%) among the 51 wide receivers with 30+ targets since Week 7.
This is the fourth consecutive season Adams’ drop rate has increased, which is a concerning sign about his long-term outlook as he prepares to turn 32 this month. Adams must use the next five games to prove he can normalize his drop rate and overall efficiency, or else he will not look like an appealing player for any team to commit big money to in 2025.
Breece Hall
I and many other people believed Breece Hall would establish himself as one of the best running backs in the NFL this season, if not the best. Instead, he has just been another starting running back.
Hall hasn’t been “bad.” But he hasn’t been special. The expectation-beating magic that he displayed over his first two seasons has evaporated.
According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Hall ranks 17th out of 32 running backs (100+ carries) with 0.2 rushing yards over expected per carry. Compare this to his last two seasons. In 2023, Hall averaged 0.7 RYOE per carry, seventh-best among RBs with 100+ carries, and in 2022, he averaged 1.4 RYOE per carry, which led RBs with 80+ carries.
In his first two seasons, Hall ran behind an atrocious offensive line and still managed to produce efficient results. The degree to which he exceeded the expectations of his situation gave him an incredible ceiling going into 2024, as he was set to run behind the best blocking of his career. While the Jets’ run-blocking in 2024 has been underwhelming, it has still been much better than what Hall got over his first two seasons, and yet, Hall has become less efficient, averaging a career-low 4.2 yards per carry (versus 4.5 in 2023 and 5.8 in 2022). He is now a back who simply takes what is blocked up for him – nothing less, nothing more.
The underlying metrics points to concerning declines from Hall in multiple areas.
Firstly, his power and elusiveness have dwindled. According to Pro Football Focus, Hall is averaging career-lows of 3.2 yards after contact per carry and 0.164 missed tackles forced per carry, down from his previous career averages of 3.6 and 0.205.
Perhaps more concerningly, Hall does not appear to have the same top-end speed that he previously did, which used to be his most appealing trait. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Hall’s max speed as a ball carrier this season is 20.27 mph, which is just the 27th-best max speed among running backs. Last year, Hall topped out at 21.5 mph, sixth-best at the position, and he had a whopping four runs that exceeded his 2024 season-best of 20.27 mph.
It should also be noted that Hall has six fumbles this year after having just three over his first two seasons.
Hall has five games to reclaim the dominance of his first two seasons. If his mediocre play continues, the Jets would be wise to seek avenues of improving the running back position in the 2025 offseason.
That’s not to say the Jets should dump Hall for pennies while his value is low; it would be smart to keep him and give him a chance to bounce back, as he’s too young and talented not to. However, if New York enters the offseason with a group featuring a starter who played “average” and two unproven youngsters behind him, the RB position would not be off-limits from a significant addition. Hall can make it off-limits if he gets back to the peak version of himself.
Hall is currently dealing with a knee injury, and his status for this week’s game is up in the air. The injury comes at a bad time, as Hall really needs a strong finish to affirm his status as a long-term building block in New York – especially with the pending arrival of a new regime that did not draft him.
Jamien Sherwood
Jamien Sherwood has been one of the Jets’ top breakout performers in 2024 and one of their best players overall, particularly on defense. As he gears up for unrestricted free agency in 2025, the stakes are high for Sherwood over these next five games.
As a 25-year-old linebacker with excellent production, Sherwood is bound to receive a nice contract in March, whether it’s from the Jets or someone else. However, he has shown a unique profile in 2024, displaying some high peaks and low valleys. Because of his volatility, Sherwood could gain or lose many millions between now and the end of the regular season.
Through the first six weeks of the season, only the impeccable Fred Warner had a better coverage grade at PFF than Sherwood (87.0) among linebackers. Sherwood had yielded just 43 yards on 15 targets over his first six games, mind-boggling averages of 2.9 yards per target and 7.2 yards per game. That’s pure dominance in the passing game.
Since Week 7, Sherwood has undergone a complete 180, ranking third-worst among qualified linebackers in PFF’s coverage grade (39.3). Over this six-game stretch, he has allowed 238 yards on 26 targets, ballooning all the way to 9.2 yards per target and 39.7 yards per game. There have been three games where Sherwood allowed more yards than he did over the first six weeks combined.
Which Sherwood will we see over the next five games? The answer to that question will go a long way toward determining the value he commands on the open market.
Malachi Corley
Outside of Garrett Wilson, the Jets do not have any wide receivers to feel great about going into 2025. Malachi Corley can change that – and he needs to, for his own sake.
Third-round picks do not always have to make an immediate impact, but it is extremely disappointing that Corley has been unable to do anything of note. While some might knock the Jets’ coaching staff for that, I assure you they would be using him more often if he showed in practice that he deserved it. It seems clear that Corley has not impressed the Jets on the practice field and/or in meetings.
We may finally be reaching the point where Corley will get a legitimate chance to shine. After playing just 14 offensive snaps through nine weeks, Corley played 16 snaps in Week 10 and 12 snaps in Week 11. This past week against Seattle, he played 41 snaps (60%). He was targeted twice (neither caught) and had one rush attempt (8 yards).
Corley needs to use these next five games as an audition for the Jets’ new regime. They did not draft him, so they will not be partial to him because he was a third-round pick. Even the regime that did draft him refused to give him special treatment. If Corley goes into 2025 as the guy who is still best known for throwing away a wide-open touchdown on national television, the new regime will treat him as such, not as a third-round pick.
A late surge from Corley would be immensely beneficial for the Jets, too. The emergence of an in-house solution at wide receiver would give the Jets one less hole to worry about filling, giving them more resources to spend on each of their other holes. Depending on the degree to which Corley impresses, it may also allow them to feel comfortable about cutting ties with Adams.
