Davante Adams can still ball
Going into this week’s game, we talked about Davante Adams’ long-term future with the New York Jets. The conclusion was that he still has the separation skills to be worth bringing back in 2025 if he is open to it, but that he needed to use the next five games to quell concerns about his hands, which were brutal over his first six games in New York.
Sunday was a fantastic first step. Adams showed how dominant he can still be when his hands are on-point, as he caught 9-of-11 targets for 109 yards and a touchdown. Adams had a catch rate over expected of +16.1%, a fantastic mark. Compare that to his -11.5% CROE across his first six games with the Jets, which ranked second-worst among qualified wide receivers during that span.
The Jets do not need Adams to be the All-Pro version of himself to prove that he can be a worthy piece to have around in 2025. All he needs to be is a high-quality WR2, and in Miami, he was that and then some. Four more games of this, and you can be certain the Jets’ new general manager will approach Adams about negotiating a fair price to return in 2025. Whether or not Adams would oblige is a different question.
Jamien Sherwood’s market value took a leap
Like Adams, Jamien Sherwood was another Jets player with a lot on the line entering the final five games of 2024. An impending unrestricted free agent, Sherwood is playing to maximize his value on the open market.
Sherwood has been a breakout player for the Jets this season, emerging as a quality starting linebacker. However, he’s been volatile. After a red-hot first six games, Sherwood’s production took a steep nosedive over his next six games. With two vastly different stretches of production on his resume, the final stretch of the season will go a long way toward determining what type of contract Sherwood will demand.
Miami was a phenomenal start for the 24-year-old ‘backer. Sherwood was plugging holes all over the Jets’ porous defense, finishing with a career-high 18 total tackles.
While that is a nice number, it is never wise to glorify tackle totals without applying context. Luckily, in this case, the deeper metrics support Sherwood’s impact. Not only did he make 18 tackles, but he had zero missed tackles, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Of those 18 tackles, six held the ball carrier to a gain of two yards or less, with two of those six resulting in a loss. Sherwood also added a pass deflection.
Sherwood undoubtedly has a high ceiling. He has shown it in various games throughout the season. The problem is that he also showed a low floor with his rough patch from games 7-12. However, if Sherwood can replicate what he did in Miami across the next four games, the positives of his 2024 body of work will vastly outweigh the negatives, making him an extremely appealing player as he hits the open market at 25 years old.
More games like this one, and the Jets will have to pay up if they want Sherwood to be one of their core long-term pieces on defense.
Jets’ young backs have potential, but let’s pump the brakes
Breece Hall’s absence meant it was time for the Jets’ two rookie running backs to shine. They did a nice job with the opportunity, combining for 148 scrimmage yards and a touchdown on 28 touches.
Although Braelon Allen started the game, the Jets employed a nearly even snap-count split between him and Isaiah Davis, with Allen playing 37 snaps to Davis’ 36. In terms of playmaking opportunities, they were identical, with both players having 16 combined carries and targets.
Both players displayed promise. In the run game, Allen had 11 rushes for 43 yards while Davis ran 10 times for 40 yards and a touchdown. The advanced metrics thought Davis did a solid job of creating his own yardage, crediting him with 5 rushing yards over expected (0.5 RYOE per carry). Allen was average, earning 0 RYOE, which means he gained exactly what the tracking system expected him to based on the blocking.
In the passing game, Allen caught 4-of-5 targets for 38 yards while Davis secured 3-of-6 targets for 27 yards. Allen was the superior playmaker in this phase, tying Garrett Wilson for the team lead with 8 yards after catch over expectation. Davis was a little underwhelming in this area, earning -3 YACOE.
Overall, Davis combined for 2 yards over expectation (5 rush, -3 YAC) while Allen had 8 yards over expectation (0 rush, 8 YAC). Those numbers make it a promising outing for the young duo. Both players displayed the capability to be solid, above-average backs who can be counted on to step up and provide respectable production in a pinch.
At the same time, Jets fans should pump the brakes on their praise of Allen and Davis for the time being. While they played well, their performance was not nearly enough to start viewing Breece Hall as expendable. Even in a down season, Hall is still the best playmaking back on the roster by a wide margin. Compare the season-long 2024 numbers of the trio:
- Breece Hall: 38 RYOE on 164 carries (0.2 per carry), 102 YACOE on 46 receptions (2.2 per reception)
- Braelon Allen: -42 RYOE on 78 carries (-0.5 per carry), 11 YACOE on 16 receptions (0.7 per reception)
- Isaiah Davis: -1 RYOE on 15 carries (-0.1 per carry), 1 YACOE on 7 receptions (0.1 per reception)
Hall has 140 total yards over expectation, while Allen is at -31 and Davis at zero. There isn’t a conversation to be had yet.
Due to their disappointment in Hall’s 2024 season compared to his sky-high expectations, some fans might be a little too trigger-happy to want to ship him out of town, making them eager to jump on any semblance of success from Allen and Davis as a reason to justify dumping Hall. Don’t fall into that trap just yet. If Hall misses more time and the young backs can put together some phenomenal games, maybe a conversation could be had. For now, Hall remains the best back on this roster by a wide margin.
Still, it is a positive to see Allen and Davis prove they are capable of being reliable pieces to fill out the back end of the depth chart.
