Let the Tankathon watch continue.
Yet again, New York Jets fans sit drearily awaiting the offseason. With the team at 3-10, the main thing to speculate about is next year’s draft. The Jets currently own the No. 7 pick.
Regardless of whether Aaron Rodgers returns (which seems highly unlikely), the Jets undoubtedly need a new quarterback sooner rather than later. Having a high enough pick in the draft is usually the way to do it.
But what if the quarterback isn’t there? This QB class has universally been labeled as weak. What can the Jets do, and what should they do?
Coaching, coaching, coaching
While drafting the right quarterback is always a dicey prospect, getting the right coaches is crucial for any decision. The Jets need to figure out if they think there is any quarterback who can be developed. Getting the right prospect is obviously key, but coaching plays a tremendous role in whether a quarterback succeeds in the NFL.
Tua Tagovailoa is the most obvious example. Through two seasons, he looked to be on his way toward NFL irrelevance, if not being an outright bust. Then Mike McDaniel came along and created the perfect system to align with his strengths, and he played at a borderline MVP level for two consecutive seasons.
Sam Darnold is another highly relevant example. Darnold looked like a total bust with the Jets and Panthers. Even this year, it has taken most of the media and fans a long time to believe that Darnold is truly a good quarterback. People keep expecting him to turn back into a pumpkin.
But after a 347-yard, five-touchdown performance, it’s hard to deny that Darnold is playing at a very high level. And the most obvious reason is Kevin O’Connell’s coaching. O’Connell gives Darnold a very specific set of things to look for pre-snap, simplifying the post-snap read and giving Darnold the confidence to let it rip.
Would Darnold have played like this from the outset if he’d had this coach? Watching the success of many current starting quarterbacks and the resurgence of other passers besides Darnold, the possibility is quite strong. Brock Purdy, Jared Goff, Bo Nix, Baker Mayfield, and Jalen Hurts all have a strong element of executing a system at a high level.
Nix, in particular, is an intriguing example of how important the marriage of coach and quarterback is. Nix was not an overly impressive prospect, seen by many as a fringe first-rounder at best who vaulted up to No. 13 because of need. But Sean Payton felt he found the right quarterback to fit his system.
After an extremely rough start, Nix has pushed himself into the Offensive Rookie of the Year conversation. He has 16 touchdowns and 4 interceptions over his last nine games while posting the lowest turnover-worthy play rate (1.1%).
Nix is not lighting the world on fire, as he has the seventh-lowest big-time throw rate in the league (3.2%). But guess what? Patrick Mahomes is only one spot ahead of him. He’s doing what Payton asks him to do, and the Broncos average 27.8 points per game since Week 5.
Nix still doesn’t look impressive, and his naysayers will continue to insist he’s not good. Maybe he isn’t and the NFL will catch up to him. But even the way he’s playing now suggests that a skilled offensive mind with a quarterback who is on the same page can go a long way.
The Jets’ best bet is to find a coaching system (play-caller + quarterbacks coach) who can create a plan to maximize the strengths of whichever prospect they choose.
Take a QB just because you need one?
Every year, there’s a list of teams that need a quarterback. Rarely are there above-average starters on the free-agent or trade markets, meaning that at least 3-5 teams need to draft a starter or heir apparent each season. There usually aren’t that many top prospects available.
So what should a team that needs a quarterback do if there’s no prospect good enough to draft? Take one just because they need one? Forgo it and live with a bridge quarterback toward nothing?
For example, in the 2024 draft, the Giants’ Joe Schoen desperately tried to trade up from No. 6 to No. 3 to select Drake Maye. When he failed, although J.J. McCarthy was still available, Schoen selected Malik Nabers. He and Brian Daboll did not believe in McCarthy, so Schoen did not take McCarthy just because he needed a quarterback.
The situation was somewhat complicated by the fact that the Giants were still on the hook for Daniel Jones’ $41 million in 2024. Therefore, they felt that they were stuck with Jones as their starter for one more year regardless, so they didn’t want to take just any quarterback.
Still, the Giants’ quarterback situation was such a disaster this season that Jones is no longer with the team, and Drew Lock and Tommy DeVito have been just as futile. Now, the Giants hold the No. 2 pick in the draft and will undoubtedly look to draft a quarterback. But who’s to say that quarterback will be a better prospect than McCarthy was, especially considering the supposed weakness of the class?
When a team needs a quarterback, they generally can’t afford to forgo selecting one in the draft. If the only players available are Kenny Pickett and Malik Willis-caliber prospects, then teams still feel compelled to draft them. The question is if that team is any better off with the mediocre prospect than with a bridge quarterback.
Are the Steelers not better off this year with Russell Wilson than they were over the last two seasons with Pickett, even though they still don’t have a “quarterback of the future”?
The Jets’ options
The Jets’ path forward in 2025 is tricky. Yes, they have the No. 7 pick right now, and yes, there are multiple quarterbacks who will likely be in the first-round conversation. Those quarterbacks will likely fly up draft boards even if they’re not projected in the top 10 right now.
Assuming that the Jets are in a position to take a quarterback, it will be hard to say they shouldn’t draft one. The team’s depth at the position will be limited to Tyrod Taylor and Jordan Travis.
Still, what if whoever they hire isn’t sold on any of the quarterbacks? Should they draft a passer in the first round just because they feel they need to?
This brings me back to a question I had in 2021. There was some debate about whether the Jets should trade Sam Darnold and draft a quarterback at No. 2 overall or keep Darnold and trade out of the pick. While most fans sided overwhelmingly with taking Wilson, my personal opinion was to trade back.
My reasoning was twofold. The crux of the argument was that the Jets’ roster was so talent-poor that no quarterback prospect would be able to succeed in that environment. Virtually every rookie quarterback’s success is predicated upon having at least an average offensive line plus some decent skill position players. The Jets had neither of those.
Additionally, I did not believe in Wilson as a prospect. I felt that his mechanics would hurt him tremendously at the NFL level, as rarely do Aaron Rodgers-style mechanics work (and I was not wrong about that, although it is far from the main reason Wilson did not work out with the Jets).
Therefore, despite the Jets’ need at quarterback and their prime draft position, I thought it made more sense to build the team up first. I did not have a ready solution for the quarterback situation, as I did not believe in Darnold, either. But I felt that taking Wilson just because the Jets had the opportunity to do so was not a good idea.
As Jets X-Factor’s Michael Nania pointed out to me, a better approach would have been to trade Darnold and make do with a bridge quarterback. Joe Douglas got an absolute heist from the Darnold trade (at the time), and if he wasn’t going to work out anyway, it would have made sense to get a journeyman (such as Joe Flacco) rather than sticking with Darnold.
But looking at things now, is it inconceivable that Darnold could have had more success with the Jets in Year 4 if they had built up the team around him? Mike LaFleur was not a terrible play-caller (regardless of my opinion that he deserved to be fired after the 2022 season, one that Jets X-Factor’s Robby Sabo and Michael Nania disagreed with), and there were plays to be had if the right quarterback was there to execute them. LaFleur and Kevin O’Connell come from a similar coaching tree (the Kyle Shanahan/Sean McVay tree).
Let’s say the Jets had traded back and gotten multiple picks. Could they not have built up an entire offensive infrastructure that way?
Whether with Darnold or a different quarterback, though, my overarching point was not to take a quarterback just because the opportunity was there. Ultimately, the only successful quarterback from that draft year is Mr. Irrelevant Brock Purdy.
And that leads me to my next point. If a team has a good coach and system in place, it’s easier for a non-first-round pick to succeed. I’m not saying the Jets can find the next Purdy, but Purdy is not the only example of a non-early-round quarterback finding early success in a good situation. Dak Prescott and Russell Wilson are two other examples, and Kirk Cousins can fall somewhat into that category with Mike Shanahan as his head coach (despite the chaos with RGIII and Cousins’ current struggles).
Therefore, if the Jets truly don’t like any of the early quarterbacks, maybe trading back makes sense once again. No. 7 overall is not No. 2 overall, so it depends on where their draft slot ultimately ends up. But it might be better for the Jets to get a good offensive staff, try to build up the other parts of their offense, and then draft a quarterback outside the first round.
Not having studied this draft class thoroughly (and not being a college fan at all), I cannot say if this is even possible. But if the quarterbacks at the top of the draft are so developmental, is there as big a gap between mid-round quarterbacks and first-rounders as there would normally be?
Perhaps some would argue that Jordan Travis could be that player, but a better arm is a likely prerequisite to be a starting quarterback in the NFL.
I’m not arguing that the Jets should go this route. I haven’t studied the players enough. We don’t even know who their offensive staff will be, which makes the point speculative right now regardless. Still, I think the Jets and their fans should not discount it as an option just because the team is so quarterback-needy.
If the Jets do find the right offensive staff, they have a far better team infrastructure to surround a young quarterback than they’ve had in the past. They have some talented offensive linemen and could actually have continuity on the line for the first time in a decade. With the history of the players on the line, a non-Keith Carter coach could likely get a lot more cohesiveness out of the unit, as well.
Assuming they retain Davante Adams at a lower cap number, they’ll have two solid receivers to work with, and they can supplement the room in free agency and the draft. Tight end is definitely a problem (to Brock Bowers lovers, left tackle would be if the Jets had Bowers).
Running back is also not as strong as we thought heading into the season, as Breece Hall has been a big disappointment. Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis are fun young backs, but they’re still mostly average. Still, there’s enough talent in the offensive group as a whole for a rookie to step in and feel comfortable if the coaching is right.
Other options
Unlike in the last few offseasons, there really aren’t realistic reclamation projects available for the Jets to target. Sure, they could go after Justin Fields or Daniel Jones just because they’re younger than Taylor and theoretically have more upside, and the risk is very low for the likely price they’ll command. You never know where the next Geno Smith will come from. Even Jameis Winston might be worth a flier, although he’s 31 and seems to be what he is, a gunslinger in every sense of the word.
If the Jets want a Smith-style player on the free-agent market, old friend Sam Darnold would be the lone option. That assumes Minnesota moves on from him, which is a thorny issue. After all, coming off a five-touchdown performance, Darnold has an ever-growing hype machine. But the Vikings also have the No. 10 overall pick from last year. Would Minnesota really extend Darnold? Would they franchise tag him and look to trade him? Would they keep him on the tag?
Should the Jets even be interested in Darnold if he’s available? Well, that depends on many factors. In theory, getting a quarterback like that would make sense for the Jets in their situation. It would be sort of like their attempt to sign Kirk Cousins in 2018 (although Cousins had far more clout behind him without the initial “bust” label).
How Darnold finishes out this season will be key in shaping his market. If he can continue making big plays with his arm while keeping his turnover-worthy plays to a reasonably low level, there’s definitely a case to be made that the Jets should try to acquire him. I think it would only be worth entertaining the notion if he’s a free agent and not a sign-and-trade candidate, but the Jets shouldn’t be totally closed to the possibility.
Of course, that assumes Darnold would be willing to return to New York, which is a dicey prospect considering some of the things he previously said about them.
There’s also the possibility that Darnold is Case Keenum lite. The Vikings have heard this song before. However, because Keenum was a weak-armed career backup whereas Darnold is a toolsy former first-round pick, I’m more inclined to believe Darnold can sustain his success.
I believe that any contract should contain a contingency plan for that possibility, though.
Geno Smith’s contract in Seattle is a perfect example. He signed a mid-market contract for quarterbacks at the time ($25 million per year over three years, similar to Jimmy Garoppolo’s three-year, $72.75 million deal with the Raiders), a very rare reasonable deal for the quarterback’s level of play. But his contract contained many escalators, meaning that if he reached the same statistical benchmarks as he did in 2022, he could increase the total value of the contract to $105 million, or $35 million per year.
Darnold will likely command more money (relative to the market) because his pace so far is more impressive than Smith’s final statistics in 2022. But his contract should include performance escalators rather than a guaranteed salary befitting of a typical quarterback with those numbers.
Outside of Darnold, there isn’t much else in free agency. There are no Baker Mayfield types on the market — players who had some early success but faltered. The only player of that ilk around the NFL is Trevor Lawrence, but the Jaguars are highly unlikely to want to move on from him.
Surprisingly, the cost of doing so would not be prohibitive for Jacksonville; they would incur a $30 million dead cap charge in 2025 if they traded him before June 1. Although they would actually lose $13 million in 2025 cap space (as opposed to cap savings), that’s a very reasonable price to move on from a hefty quarterback contract. If the Jaguars bring in a new regime that decides they want to overhaul the offense, Lawrence could be a potential trade target.
The bigger issue is the return that Lawrence would command. It’s hard to gauge because if Jacksonville looks to dump him and lose $13 million in cap space in the process, that means they do not believe in his value. His large guaranteed salaries over the next three seasons, plus big option bonuses, could also depress the return.
Lawrence’s cap hits are quite reasonable from 2025-27, although an acquiring team would probably re-work his deal somewhat. However, moving on from him before 2027 would likely be prohibitive, and it would still be expensive in 2027.
Again, this is an extremely theoretical exercise. The chances that Jacksonville would want to move on from Lawrence one year after paying him are very small. But in some ways, he would make an ideal acquisition for a team in this position, if the Jets can get the right offensive staff in place. (At least, assuming you think he still has that top-10 quarterback in him, which I am skeptical about but willing to entertain the possibility).
Then there’s the used-up Jets fan favorite from two years ago, Derek Carr. Carr has mostly flamed out in New Orleans, although his numbers perennially look more respectable than his offensive output on the field. The Saints could seek to move on, and Carr is unlikely to command the $37.5 million per year that he did two years ago. If the Jets want to go the low-ceiling, reasonable-floor route, that could be another option, albeit a highly uninspiring one.
Bottom line
Whichever path the Jets choose, the offensive staff is just as crucial as which quarterback they end up with. Sure, a guy like Lawrence has more success under his belt, and Darnold has the original draft pedigree plus a top-level season. But the quarterback’s ability to succeed has everything to do with his coaching and offensive environment.
When it comes closer to draft season, more data and film will come out about the 2025 quarterback class. Although the draft wars will undoubtedly ensue, that will allow you and me to form a more informed opinion about the various draft prospects.
Maybe there is someone absolutely worth picking. Maybe there is only one such quarterback, and the Jets will pick too low. Maybe there are several who will go at an appropriate spot. Maybe there’s a non-first-round prospect worth drafting.
The central point here is that the Jets should not take a top-10 quarterback just because it appears that they need to. There is more than one way to build a successful team in the NFL. Most of the starting quarterbacks in the NFL are first-round picks (23 out of 32 to start this season), but that shouldn’t deter the Jets if they see a non-first-round quarterback they feel they can develop.
The quarterback carousel in New York is quite tiring. The Jets should explore any and all options toward finally getting it right. Ultimately, though, the most crucial step toward success will come before free agency and the draft. Get the right offensive staff, and the path toward finding the right quarterback will become infinitely easier.
