Aaron Rodgers and the passing game are far from the New York Jets’ only problems offensively. The Jets have also suffered from a brutal run game, which has made life much more difficult for the passing game.
New York ranks 29th in rushing DVOA, 31st in rushing yards per game, and 21st in yards per rush attempt. It is a wildly underwhelming output for a unit that had the potential to perform at an elite level entering the year.
Usually, when a team’s run game struggles, the first instinct of fans and media is to point fingers at the offensive line. That instinct is often correct, but in the Jets’ case, the primary issue might be something else.
While New York’s offensive line has certainly performed below expectations in the run game, the Jets’ running back unit has actually been a larger problem according to some metrics.
Overall, if you agglomerate all available run-blocking metrics, the Jets’ run-blocking checks out as approximately average. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, the Jets rank a respectable 16th in expected yards per carry (xYPC) on RB carries, with a mark of 4.1. This metric is calculated using GPS tracking data to estimate how many yards the runner should be expected to gain on each play based on the quality of the blocking.
In Pro Football Focus’ run-blocking grade, the Jets rank ninth-best (68.5). In FTN’s adjusted line yards per carry, they rank 21st (4.23). Combined, their average ranking is 15th across xYPC, PFF’s run-blocking grade, and adjusted line yards per carry.
Meanwhile, the individual creation metrics of the Jets’ RB unit are consistently poor. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, the Jets’ RB unit averages -0.1 rushing yards over expected (RYOE) per carry, which ranks 24th in the league. They are also 25th in FTN’s open-field yards per carry (0.55) – which shows how many yards a RB gains beyond 10 yards – and 27th in PFF’s team rushing grade (71.0), giving them an average ranking of 25th across the three metrics.
The RB unit’s poor performance in individual rushing metrics is due to a complete lack of elusiveness. The Jets’ RB unit is 32nd in missed tackles forced per carry (0.173), according to NFL Next Gen Stats.
Breece Hall is the worst offender, averaging just 0.158 missed tackles forced per carry. That is the worst mark in the NFL among running backs with at least 100 carries. Braelon Allen has not been much better, as his 0.171 mark is third-worst at the position if you lower the filter to 80 carries.
The only back who has shown a semblance of elusiveness is Isaiah Davis, who is averaging a solid 0.304 on a very small sample of carries. This is above the league average of 0.246.
It is easy to point fingers at the offensive line for a poor run game, but sometimes the backs are at fault, too. In rare cases, they are even more at fault than the offensive line, and this looks like one of those rare cases. It seems the Jets’ running back unit is actually a more pressing issue than the offensive line going into 2025.
