When will the coaching carousel make its first stop?
For New York Jets fans, the only move that really matters is the stop in Florham Park, New Jersey. But what happens with those other five coaching jobs will have at least some impact on what happens to the Jets’ opening.
Jets X-Factor’s Michael Nania already predicted what he thinks will happen with each of those positions. One burning question, though, is whether each candidate is actually interested in the position that may be offered to them.
While each coaching candidate may be looking for different things, there are a few common things that most potential head coaches look for. Quarterback, ownership alignment, general manager, and the overall state of the roster certain play heavily into those decisions.
With that in mind, how desirable is each head coaching job?
6) New Orleans Saints
This might be a hot take, but I just don’t see much about the Saints’ open position to like. Mickey Loomis has been the general manager there for over two decades and the executive vice president for over a decade. That’s an incredible amount of stagnation for an organization languishing in the post-Drew Brees era.
And, somehow, the Saints continue to languish in the red even years after Brees’ exit. Per Over the Cap, the Saints are currently $50.8 million over the cap heading into 2025 — and that’s after clearing $16.7 million in space. Rather than truly re-setting, Loomis continues to kick the can down the road ad infinitum. I don’t know how much head coaches look at a team’s cap situation, but this seems like a paper tiger.
Derek Carr is the definition of NFL mediocrity. If the Saints choose to release him outright, they’ll incur a $50.1 million dead cap charge while saving only $1.3 million. Perhaps they’ll be willing to take that hit (as I have urged the Jets to do with Aaron Rodgers). If they did it with a post-June 1 designation, they would save $30 million while incurring a $21.5 million dead cap charge.
However, given Loomis’ past behavior, it is far more likely that he will simply restructure Carr’s contract and continue the ticking time bomb.
Elsewhere on the roster, the Saints have an aging running back who is showing clear signs of yearly decline (Alvin Kamara), one reliable wide receiver (Chris Olave) and another promising one (Rashid Shaheed) both coming off long-term injuries, a 35-year-old tight end/quarterback whom they may nor may not keep, and an elite center (Erik McCoy) but little else.
Defensively, New Orleans has Carl Granderson and the ageless Demario Davis, but they don’t really have transformational talent. Tyrann Mathieu and Cameron Jordan are both aging and past their prime. Marshon Lattimore is gone. Bryan Bresee has some pass rush promise, but that’s about it.
This roster lacks talent across the board. With the No. 9 pick, perhaps the Saints could swipe a quarterback if they let Carr go or fill one of their other holes. But they’ll be hard-pressed to build anything with their mess of a cap situation and the dearth of talent on the roster.
I would think a head coach would want to stay away unless Loomis has a true rebuild plan in place.
5) Las Vegas Raiders
Once again, this rating is due to a dearth of talent on the roster. The Raiders have Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate Brock Bowers, a solid wide receiver in Jakobi Meyers, and some good offensive linemen (specifically tackle Kolton Miller). Defensively, they have Maxx Crosby and Christian Wilkins, both coming off major injuries, and not much else.
Furthermore, while the Raiders’ ownership is not nearly as chaotic under Mark Davis as it was under Al, there’s still plenty of drama in the front office. Then again, Tom Brady is apparently involved in the hiring process, which could be an inducement for former Patriots in the coaching cycle (namely Mike Vrabel and Brian Flores).
Another strike against the Raiders is their quarterback situation. Back-to-back wins in Weeks 16 and 17 pushed Las Vegas down to the No. 6 spot in the draft, making it far less likely that they can draft one of the top two quarterbacks. That leaves their quarterback situation in disarray.
On the other hand, the Raiders have $107.3 million in projected 2025 cap space, the second-most in the NFL. A coach could feel that he and an incoming general manager can shape the roster in a hurry. That would hold a lot more weight if they had a quarterback option, though.
4) New York Jets
You knew you probably wouldn’t need to wait long to get to the old faithful, but this isn’t as bad as it gets. There are a few things saving the Jets from the bottom spot on this list.
For one thing, given that the Jets’ general manager and head coach spots are both open, there is more opportunity for organizational alignment. That is also the case for the Raiders, but the other four positions already have a general manager whom the head coach will need to work with.
Additionally, despite the mess at the quarterback situation, the Jets have a lot more talent on their roster than the Saints and Raiders. In fact, of the six teams listed, the Jets probably have the most talented roster. The biggest problem, by far, is the quarterback situation. What makes the position particularly unattractive is the lack of a clear path to solve that issue.
This assumes that Woody Johnson is staying out of the Aaron Rodgers debate. If he puts forth any sort of mandate about Rodgers to head coaching candidates, this job instantly falls to sixth on the list. No coach wants to come in being forced into any particular decision.
And that gets to the crux of the issue with the Jets’ job: their ownership. Whether the myriad reports in The Athletic are true or not, the Jets have a miles-long reputation for dysfunction. Most of the fan base places the blame for that at Johnson’s feet, and whether that is deserved or not (which, to some extent, it undoubtedly is), the coaching candidates are aware of this notoriety.
There is a glimmer of hope even regarding ownership. SNY’s Connor Hughes pointed out that Johnson is known for giving his coaches and GMs time to figure things out. In his nearly 25 years of owning the Jets, he has fired only three coaches or GMs with less than a four-year tenure, and in all three cases, it was richly deserved.
Overall, the Jets’ situation is so regularly tumultuous that many coaches will likely want to stay away. It takes a certain level of hubris for any coach to think that they can manage to do what no one else has in 14 years and bring the Jets to the playoffs.
But ultimately, given the few things the Jets have going for them and the fact that there are only six such openings, someone will choose the Jets.
3) Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence has now added injury-prone to the growing list of strikes against him. He got paid in the 2024 offseason and put forth a miserable effort in which he posted the third-lowest adjusted completion percentage in the league (70%) and the 28th-ranked passer rating (85.2), among many other poor metrics.
However, what Lawrence continues to have is the draft pedigree and the promise of his 2022 season. There is still a belief in the media that Lawrence’s coaching has failed him, and perhaps many coaches believe that, too.
When a team has a workable quarterback, that automatically helps attract coaches. The Jaguars also struck gold in the first round of the draft with Brian Thomas Jr., who looks like one of the NFL’s next star receivers. Defensively, Jacksonville has Josh Hines-Allen, Devin Lloyd, Foyesade Oluokun, and Tyson Campbell.
The biggest obstacle for the Jaguars to hire a coach will almost undoubtedly be the continued presence of general manager Trent Baalke. How Baalke got a pass from owner Shad Khan while Doug Pederson was fired remains anyone’s guess, although Khan did not rule out the possibility of firing Baalke later (ironically, with Baalke on the same Zoom call).
Baalke has a long reputation of being hard to work with, and SI’s Albert Breer confirmed that his presence could be a deterrent for many coaches.
In this sense, it’s hard to definitively say that the Jets are a less attractive coaching spot than the Jaguars. At least with the Jets, a coach could find alignment with a new general manager. Still, quarterback is king, so I think the Jaguars’ job ranks above the Jets’.
2) Chicago Bears
This could go in many different ways depending on how coaches view Caleb Williams’ rookie season. However, based on how NFL coaches seem to think, having the supposedly “generational” quarterback talent on the roster will undoubtedly draw significant interest.
Williams’ season was so poor that it should raise some red flags beyond just his poor coaching. Still, seeing turnarounds from a former first-round bust (Sam Darnold) and a previous No. 1 pick (Bryce Young) could further raise confidence that better coaching will turn Williams around.
The Bears have an established No. 1 receiver in D.J. Moore, although Williams and Moore struggled to develop chemistry. They also have a highly-touted receiver in Rome Odunze, who also struggled in his rookie year but dealt with the most uncatchable air yards of any receiver in the NFL.
Despite the reputation of the Bears’ offensive line, they actually have two good players there. Second-year right tackle Darnell Wright is a stud on the right side, and left tackle Braxton Jones is underrated. The other two Bears offensive linemen under contract in 2024 are at worst decent. The Bears’ blocking struggles were far more about Williams holding the ball too long than their actual performance.
Defensively, although the Bears imploded in the second half of the year, they still have ample talent. Jaylon Johnson, Montez Sweat, and Tremaine Edmunds could draw some interest as a baseline.
The Bears also have the fifth-most cap space in the NFL ($80.1 million) while fielding decent talent. It’s easy to see why a head coach would want to go to Chicago.
1) New England Patriots
At the beginning of the 2024 season, I never would have imagined listing New England as an attractive job opening. The Patriots undoubtedly had the least talented roster in the NFL this season.
However, Drake Maye flashed enough talent as a rookie to make coaching candidates clamor to work with him. It’s easy to think that with even a modicum of talent around him, Maye could blossom into a star.
The Patriots are also flush with cap space at $123.9 million, the most in the NFL by far. And they have the No. 4 overall pick, where they could give Maye an elite talent to work with.
Robert Kraft has a good reputation as an owner. He gets credit for luring Bill Belichick away from the Jets and essentially leaving him alone for two decades. He reportedly desperately wants to win again, and he can create the organizational stability to do it. Patriots general manager Eliot Wolf might be a minor detriment, but given the strong ownership, it likely won’t deter a candidate.
Then again, if Vrabel is the most likely candidate, just the fact that it is his former team will be enough.
