The New York Jets inherited a major issue from the Denver Broncos.
They would do well to copy the Broncos’ way out of it.
The seeds of the Jets’ dysfunction in 2023-24 were arguably sown when they brought in Nathaniel Hackett to be their offensive coordinator — the same Hackett who didn’t even last a full season with the Broncos.
A year after canning Hackett, the Broncos found themselves in a bind. Their team was clearly going nowhere with Russell Wilson, and Sean Payton wanted to move on. However, Wilson’s dead cap charge was astronomical.
Ultimately, the Broncos chose to release Wilson with a post-June 1 designation, thereby sustaining the largest single-season dead cap charge in NFL history — $53 million. Even with that, they still have another $32 million in 2025 dead cap from Wilson’s contract.
Overall, the Broncos had a whopping $89 million dead cap charge in 2024 — but they still made the playoffs for the first time since 2015.
How did Denver make this transformation?
Well, having a fairly easy schedule was part of it. Their schedule was the 11th-easiest in the NFL by DVOA. But that’s not an outrageously easy schedule — and the Jets’ schedule was only one spot behind theirs.
It’s also worth noting that the Broncos went 8-9 in 2023 before going 10-7 in 2024. It was not such a huge leap in the standings.
Still, the Broncos had specific elements in place to allow them to succeed despite a highly challenging cap situation.
Bedrock offensive line
On paper, the Broncos’ skill position players were unimpressive. They traded Jerry Jeudy, leaving Courtland Sutton as their only quality receiving weapon. They had a cadre of running backs and tight ends rotating in and out of the lineup. In fact, outside of Sutton, no other Broncos skill position player cleared 600 scrimmage yards.
But what the Broncos did have was an excellent offensive line. According to Pro Football Focus, Bo Nix was pressured at the fourth-lowest rate among quarterbacks (28%) and had the fifth-highest rate of release times of 2.5 seconds or more (61.4%). The rookie quarterback had an extended period of time to survey the field.
Per NFL Next Gen Stats, every Broncos offensive lineman ranked in the top five at their position in pressure rate allowed. Left tackle Garett Bolles (4.6%), left guard Quinn Meinerz (3.6%), and center Luke Wattenberg (2.3%) were the best at their respective positions, while right guard Ben Powers (4.2%) was third-best and right tackle Mike McGlinchey (5.7%) was fifth-best.
The Broncos also had PFF’s 10th-best graded run-blocking unit (67.8) and generated the ninth-highest expected yards per carry (4.4).
Having a top-tier offensive line, especially in pass-blocking, will greatly aid any team, but especially one with a rookie quarterback.
Quarterback + play-caller
With the offensive line in place, Sean Payton got to work with his hand-picked quarterback.
Bo Nix is no one’s idea of an elite quarterback. He was a five-year starter in college, and few considered him worthy of a first-round pick before the draft. His season-long numbers in 2024 were not even all that impressive (and were actually quite reminiscent of the New York Jets’ quarterback).
However, after a rough first five games, Nix’s numbers for the rest of the season were far better. From Weeks 6-18, he was above average in DVOA, DYAR, EPA per dropback, accuracy rate, and passer rating. He was not in any way elite, but he ran a functional offense and executed the plan Sean Payton put in place.
It is worth noting that the Broncos reached in the draft for Nix. He had a fringe first-round grade at best among most scouts. But Payton wanted his man and spent the draft capital it took to get him.
Whether or not the Jets keep Aaron Rodgers, they need an offensive staff that can create an easy infrastructure for the quarterback. Matt LaFleur always gave Rodgers “freebies” to make his job easier. Kevin O’Connell did that with Sam Darnold this year, and Sean McVay has always done it with his quarterbacks.
If the Jets don’t bring back Rodgers, they will have a major quarterback conundrum this offseason. But if they find the right offensive staff, they can still build a successful offense with a mid-level quarterback. It’s certainly not ideal, and it’s not the way to build a serious Super Bowl contender (with few exceptions). But it can build a playoff team, and at this point, that’s a pipe dream for Jets fans.
Elite pass rush
The Broncos ranked fourth in defensive DVOA in 2024, including fifth in pass defense DVOA. There were many factors in that, perhaps starting with Defensive Player of the Year candidate Patrick Surtain II. However, the Broncos’ punishing pass rush was undoubtedly a big facet of their success.
Denver’s 63 sacks led the league. Per Pro Football Reference, they knocked down the quarterback on 11.9% of dropbacks, tied for the fourth-best. They also ranked third in the NFL in pressure rate, per NGS.
Furthermore, the Broncos ranked second in the NFL in quick quarterback pressure rate (17.8%). Their pressure often came extremely quickly. They led the league in pressure rate with a four-man rush (37.5%) and had the second-best pressure-to-sack conversion rate (23.8%).
In particular, the Broncos received elite production from their interior defensive line. They had two of the top six pressure generators in the NFL from the interior: John Franklin-Myers (1st, 12.6%) and Zach Allen (6th, 11.3%). Nik Bonitto and Jonathan Cooper were not as elite in generating consistent pressure from the edge, but they combined for 25 sacks.
Some of the Broncos’ defensive success is likely to regress in 2025, specifically the combination of sacks and turnovers (25, seventh-best). But quarterback knockdowns tend to stay steady from year to year, so if Denver can keep its personnel, they’re more likely to be able to continue to affect the quarterback that way.
Can the Jets do this?
The Jets actually have a pretty decent offensive line in place. They’ll need to figure out right tackle, but Olu Fashanu, John Simpson, Joe Tippmann, and Alijah Vera-Tucker are a solid group. Better coaching may be able to draw an even better performance from them next season.
Defensively, the Jets have several questions to answer. They have needs at all three levels. But if they can pair Quinnen Williams with a legitimate defensive tackle, they may be able to rejuvenate their pass rush sooner rather than later. Bringing their defense back to respectability, if not an elite level, is within reach.
The biggest question is the quarterback — but the success or failure of the quarterback may well come down to the coaching. The Jets don’t have a lot of money available, but if they make the right hire, they can set the team back up in the right direction.
The make-or-break point of the Jets’ 2025 season could come in the next couple of weeks, before they make a single personnel move.
