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Nathaniel Hackett is wildly misusing NY Jets’ best weapon

Nathaniel Hackett, NY Jets, OC, Garrett Wilson, Stats
Nathaniel Hackett, New York Jets, Getty Images

There is a lot of blame to go around for the New York Jets’ offensive futility. Nathaniel Hackett, Aaron Rodgers, Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, the whole offensive line — they have all played their part in another dreary offensive season and Robert Saleh’s firing.

Perhaps the most frustrating part is that the Jets are not putting their best players in a position to succeed. For example, Hall’s 3.1 expected yards per carry (an indicator of the space that is blocked up for the RB) is the lowest among backs with at least 50 carries. That is the lowest xYPC of any running back with at least 50 carries in a season since NFL Next Gen Stats began tracking the metric in 2018.

Visit our New York Jets Analytics page to learn the advanced football numbers.

This applies more than ever to the Jets’ best receiver. Garrett Wilson has not done himself any favors with imprecise route-running, the inability to get his feet down in bounds, generally not making tough but makeable catches, and not adjusting his route-running to the coverage and Rodgers’ tendencies. Still, Hackett has done him a great disservice, putting him in a position to fail.

Wilson’s worst route

In his rookie season, Wilson was wildly unproductive on routes labeled as “go” in the NGS tracking system (a sample that also includes fade routes based on how it is tracked at NGS). He caught just 4 of 23 go balls (17.4%) for 68 yards and one touchdown. He had just 0.5 yards per route run on go balls, by far the worst of his route tree.

In general, NFL receivers run a go route more than any other. Often it comes to clear out a different route and is not intended to be targeted. From 2018-24, NFL receivers with at least 300 routes averaged a 23.7% go route rate, far higher than the next-closest route (hitch, 18.3%).

In 2022, Wilson ran a go route on 23.7% of his routes, ranking in the 48th percentile among receivers. In 2023, that inexplicably rose to 26.4%, this time in the 76th percentile. This season, he is all the way up to 34%, ranking in the 94th percentile. In other words, one out of every three routes Wilson runs is a go route.

Wilson’s productivity on go routes has barely improved since his rookie season. In 2023, he caught 6 of 28 go balls (21.4%) for 134 yards, 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions, a 29.2 targeted passer rating, and 0.8 yards per route run. This year, he’s caught 3 of 10 go balls for 65 yards and 1.0 yards per route run.

Why are the Jets running Wilson vertically all the time? He’s not big enough to consistently fight back for back-shoulder balls (187 pounds per his quote during a press conference). He’s also not good at stacking defenders. If he can’t win against them over the top or back-shoulder, what’s the point?

Obviously, that’s not to say the Jets shouldn’t run Wilson on vertical routes. But how about lowering the number at least to his rookie year number if not lower? Why is he running go routes at a rate 11% above the league average?

Maximizing Wilson

In general, returning to what Wilson did in his rookie season in 2022 provides the best clues about how to promote his success. The Jets’ offense wasn’t much better in 2022 than in 2023 or 2024, yet Wilson was far more efficient, productive, and explosive as a rookie.

In 2022, among seven routes on which Wilson had at least 10 targets, his most efficient routes were the crossing route and in route. He had 0.13 EPA per route run on crossers and 0.50 EPA per target on in routes, which were his best marks in each category. He had 2.9 and 2.1 yards per route run on those routes, respectively.

This makes a lot of sense given Wilson’s skill set. He does his best work when he can use the middle of the field in some space. His best YAC ability is making defenders miss in the open field. That is where he truly thrived as a rookie. Crossing routes and digs maximize that skill set.

Here are examples of Wilson’s production on crossing routes and in routes in 2022.

In 2022, Wilson ranked in the 68th percentile in crossing route rate (11.8%) and the 57th percentile for in routes (10.8%). In 2024, he currently ranks in the 22nd percentile in crossing route rate (7.1%) and the 8th percentile for in routes (4.6%). His combined route rate on his two favorite routes decreased from 22.6% in 2022 to 11.7% in 2024, essentially cut in half.

Predictability

Yes, slant routes also make sense for Wilson. He had 0.41 EPA per target and 0.11 EPA per route run on slants as a rookie, his second-best marks in both categories. He also ran slants on 9.1% of his routes, which ranked in the 80th percentile.

However, increasing Wilson’s slant rate to 15.7% (96th percentile) with a quarterback who targets slants at the highest rate in the league (13.2%) means teams know what’s coming. This greatly diminishes his effectiveness on slants even if he catches the ball. Unsurprisingly, on 15 slant targets, he has -0.49 EPA per target and -0.24 EPA per route run.

On Rodgers’ pick-six to Andrew Van Ginkel against Minnesota, the Vikings knew exactly what was coming and had the perfect counterpunch. They showed Cover 0 pre-snap and knew that on 3rd-and-6, Rodgers’ response would be a quick slant, most likely to Wilson. Therefore, they had Van Ginkel take two steps forward, then sprint out straight into the throwing lane.

Cumulatively, 61.9% of Wilson’s routes have been go routes, slants, and hitches. In addition to using him improperly, the Jets are essentially telegraphing what routes he will run. This dovetails with the overall predictability of the offense.

Quarterback preferences

It is certainly possible (if not outright likely) that Wilson is running so many go routes due to Rodgers’ preference to throw them. Rodgers is targeting go routes at the highest rate among all quarterbacks this season (17.6%). Meanwhile, he has targeted in routes (1.1%) and crossers (3.3%) at the lowest rate in the NFL.

Incredibly, Rodgers has targeted Wilson’s most productive routes from his rookie season just 4.4% of the time combined. Perhaps this is an inherent mismatch between quarterback and receiver.

The problem here is that the quarterback must adapt to his receivers’ strengths rather than the other way around. Wilson likely won’t suddenly improve at running go routes, but Rodgers can start throwing in the intermediate middle of the field more often.

Maybe it’s also a scheming problem. Perhaps Hackett just doesn’t know how to put his receivers in a better position to succeed. But it seems like a Rodgers issue based on his recent history of refusing to throw over the middle.

While more interceptions happen over the middle, offensive productivity, efficiency, and explosiveness are far higher there, too. In 2023, the average passing EPA per attempt was three times higher in the middle of the field as to the sides (0.24 vs. 0.08), yards per attempt were 1.4 yards higher (8.2 vs. 6.8), and success rate was 8.1% higher (53.5% vs. 45.4%), even though interception rate is 1.7% higher (3.6% vs. 1.5%). The risk is worth the reward.

Yes, Wilson must start being able to read coverage the way Rodgers sees it. The miscommunication between the pair has largely been the receiver’s fault. But adjustments must be made on both sides. As much as Rodgers said on The Pat McAfee Show that the Jets need to make changes, he must recognize this fundamental issue and correct it.

Receiver usage

Many of the best receivers in the NFL run a route tree tailored to their specific strengths. Yes, sometimes that limits their versatility compared to Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, and Ja’Marr Chase. But only if the Jets admit that Wilson is not on the level of those players will they start using him properly.

For example, in 2023, Puka Nacua ran the third-lowest rate of vertical routes (23.7%) among 81 receivers with at least 300 routes, but he ran the sixth-highest rate of in-breakers (43%). Nacua did this despite playing in the slot at a below-average rate (27%, 40th percentile). Even though the Rams didn’t officially use Nacua as a slot receiver, they ran him on a slot receiver’s route tree, emphasizing digs and crossers.

In Cooper Kupp’s triple-crown 2021 season, he played in the slot 58.3% of the time (18th). He ran the fifth-lowest rate of vertical routes (25.2%) and an above-average rate of in-breakers (38.7%, 25th). He ran the sixth-highest rate of crossers (16.8%). His 1,947 receiving yards were the second-most in a single season in NFL history.

Players like Amon-Ra St. Brown, Rashee Rice, Deebo Samuel, and Chris Godwin run similar route trees, whether from the slot or outside.

This is not to say Wilson can’t win outside or should run vertical routes at such a low level. In particular, he’s had success on corner and post routes at times in his career (and he’s had several opportunities on corner routes this season where he was open and either Rodgers didn’t throw the ball or there was miscommunication resulting in an incompletion). However, diversifying Wilson’s usage while focusing on his strengths could unlock his game.

In an article last week, I called Wilson a “No. 2 receiver masquerading as a No. 1.” Perhaps that is not entirely accurate, as Wilson was the Jets’ No. 1 in 2022, and he played very well in that role despite similar offensive circumstances. Rather, I should have written that Wilson cannot play his current role as a No. 1 receiver.

I still believe Wilson’s route-running has dipped from his rookie year. Jets X-Factor film expert Joe Blewett’s season-long film reviews from 2022 and 2023 and his current weekly reviews highlight that. Still, the Jets and their fans know the talent is there. The Jets are simply putting him in a situation not conducive for him to succeed.

Yes, the issues with getting his feet in bounds and not reading coverage well are still there. He’s not great at making the tough catches. Given those limitations, he likely will never be the top-five receiver Jets fans and the national media have portrayed him as. But ultimately, rankings don’t matter; what the Jets need from Wilson is production and efficiency in whatever way they can get it.

They’re not getting it right now — and the coaching staff (and perhaps Rodgers) should look themselves in the mirror for the primary reason why.

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