They have ______ amount of cap space, per Over the Cap, the ______ most in the NFL.
You’ve heard that phrase. I’ve used it. We all tend to judge the health of a team’s cap situation by how much raw cap space they have at any given time.
The reality is a lot more complicated. A team’s current cap space is only a small fraction of their total cap picture, particularly just before an offseason hits.
Ahead of free agency and initial releases, let’s take a look at the Jets’ current cap picture. There are many more variables involved than usual because of the unknown of Aaron Rodgers.
Surface cap picture
Per Over the Cap, the Jets currently rank 20th in the NFL with $20.95 million in 2025 cap space. They are listed with $5.99 million in 2025 dead cap, which is middle-of-the-pack (14th-lowest).
The Jets have 28 total free agents heading into 2025, of which 23 are unrestricted. Seven have a void year. Nine are starter-level players, although one will not need to be replaced as a starter (Tyron Smith) and one may nor may not be replaced in a full-time capacity (Haason Reddick). Realistically speaking, just based on free agents before any cuts, the Jets will have 22 open roster spots.
On the surface, having $20.95 million in cap space when needing to replace nine starters is a pretty bleak picture, even if one or two of those starters comes from the draft.
There’s a lot more to the story, though.
Aaron Rodgers
Normally, I would put “Cuts” as the next heading. However, it’s impossible to do so without first considering what the Jets will do with Rodgers. Whether or not he returns has a pivotal impact on how the Jets will approach cuts and free agency.
It is possible that the Jets won’t make a decision on Rodgers for a while. His option bonus could be picked up at any point before next season. In the meantime, the Jets would carry a $23.5 million cap hit on their books, which is significantly lower than it would be with an outright release ($49 million in dead cap).
Cut
Let’s go with the more likely scenario first — that the Jets cut Rodgers.
Over the Cap has some slightly misleading data on the site about Rodgers’ contract relative to the breakdown site owner Jason Fitzgerald did of his actual contract. (As an outside analyst relying on OTC data, this is frustrating.)
But without getting too down in the weeds, these are the ramifications of releasing Rodgers as pertaining to the Jets’ 2025 cap situation only.
- Outright release: $49 million dead cap charge, -$25.5 million cap in 2025 cap savings
- Renounce option bonus, post-June 1 release: $14 million dead cap charge, $9.5 million in 2025 cap savings
- Do not renounce option bonus, post-June 1 release: $21 million dead cap charge, $2.5 million in 2025 cap savings
Fitzgerald urged the Jets to release Rodgers outright and take the $49 million dead cap charge. Just for comparison, the Broncos had to take a $53 million dead cap hit in 2024 for Russell Wilson’s contract with a post-June 1 release; they’ll still have another $32 million in dead cap in 2025.
Meanwhile, the Jets have the opportunity to wipe the slate clean completely in one offseason and rebuild their cap health moving forward.
If the Jets do want to release Rodgers with a post-June 1 designation, they’ll push a lot of the dead cap into 2026. How that will divide up depends on whether or not they renounce his option bonus. If they do so, they’ll have a $14 million dead cap charge in 2025 and $35 million in 2026.
If they don’t renounce Rodgers’ option bonus and release him with a post-June 1 designation, they’ll initially have a $21 million dead cap hit in 2025. However, since $7 million won’t actually be paid (as it will be $7 million from an option bonus that the Jets didn’t pick up), they’ll receive a $7 million cap credit in 2026, reducing the 2026 dead cap charge to $28 million.
(Why the NFL accounts for option bonuses this way — counting the first year of the bonus against the cap even though it was not picked up — is beyond my understanding. Again, all information is via Jason Fitzgerald of Over the Cap.)
It is important to note that the Jets could release Rodgers outright in February, but if they want to release him with a post-June 1 designation, the transaction could not take effect until the first day of the new league year (March 12).
Keep
If the Jets choose to keep Rodgers, they would keep their baseline $20.95 million in 2025 cap space. However, that would almost undoubtedly come with a pay cut.
Rodgers alluded to his willingness to take a pay cut (and mentor a young quarterback), although it is unclear if that is true and whether he and the Jets could agree on a reasonable number.
I provided some potential restructure scenarios to lower Rodgers’ 2025 cap hit and 2026 dead cap hit. My proposal involved lowering his option bonus to $22.5 million, which would lower his total pay for 2025 from $37.5 million in $25 million (because he has a $2.5 million base salary). That would give the Jets an extra $2.5 million in freed up cap space for 2025.
I’m not sure if either party would take that deal or if Rodgers would be willing to go lower. The middle ground in NFL quarterback contracts is almost nonexistent. Geno Smith’s $25 million per year is pretty much the lowest starter-caliber deal for a non-rookie player. (Gardner Minshew’s $12.5 million is the next-lowest after that.)
To summarize, here’s how the Jets’ salary cap situation would change based on each possible Rodgers decision:
- Outright release: -$4.55 million
- Renounce option bonus + post-June 1 release: $30.45 million
- Post-June 1 release: $23.45 million
- Pay cut (option bonus reduced to $22.5 million): $23.45 million
If the Jets’ sole interest is in having the most cap space for 2025, renouncing Rodgers’ option bonus and releasing him post-June 1 is the best way to go.
Obviously, that would mean the Jets would not have a starting quarterback (unless they decide to roll with Tyrod Taylor), which makes the $30.45 million number misleading.
Voiding contracts
The $5.99 million in 2025 dead cap the Jets currently have (per Over the Cap) is primarily from the Mike Williams trade. OTC doesn’t count voiding contracts as dead cap until the player’s contract actually expires, as re-signing the player would make it no longer “dead.”
Realistically speaking, the players with void years whom the Jets may re-sign are Tyler Conklin, Wes Schweitzer, and Solomon Thomas. But either way, this money will count against the Jets’ cap in some capacity (whether as dead cap or as part of the prorated bonus):
- Tyler Conklin: $5.93 million
- Tyron Smith: $5.8 million
- D.J. Reed: $4.62 million
- Javon Kinlaw: $4.4 million
- Haason Reddick: $4.27 million
- Wes Schweitzer: $900,000
- Solomon Thomas: $376,000
That adds a total of $26.3 million to the Jets’ salary cap in one form or another. To get back to our accounting:
- Rodgers outright release + voiding contracts: -$30.85 million
- Renounce Rodgers option bonus + post-June 1 release + voiding contracts: $4.15 million
- Rodgers Post-June 1 release + voiding contracts: -$2.85 million
- Rodgers pay cut (option bonus reduced to $22.5 million) + voiding contracts: -$2.85 million
Other cuts (if the Jets cut Rodgers)
If the Jets release Rodgers, they will enter some sort of re-tooling period. It does not necessarily mean a complete rebuild, but no longer will they seek to max out their cap and push as much money as possible into the future. This means they will likely release any veteran players with expensive contracts.
If the Jets do not designate Rodgers as a post-June 1 release, it makes it less likely that they will do so with any other player. The whole point of releasing him outright would be to get rid of all the excess cap hits in 2025 and start with a clean slate in 2026.
That being said, it’s possible that the Jets would want to get rid of Rodgers’ large cap hit right away but would prefer to spread out some smaller cap hits over two years. I think C.J. Mosley will be released with a post-June 1 designation whether or not the Jets do so with Rodgers, so I’m going to include him as a post-June 1 cut regardless.
Here are some of the other likely players to be released and the cap ramifications of doing so.
- Davante Adams: $8.4 million dead cap / $29.9 million cap savings
- Allen Lazard: $6.6 million dead cap / $6.6 million cap savings
- C.J. Mosley (post-June 1): $8.8 million dead cap / $4 million cap savings
- Greg Zuerlein: $2.3 million dead cap / $2.4 million cap savings
- Micheal Clemons: $191,024 dead cap / $3.3 million cap savings
- Jeremy Ruckert: $212,255 dead cap / $1.39 million cap savings
Note that I am including Adams based on the assumption that he will ultimately want to go elsewhere. He has already been entertaining those possibilities in his spot on the Up & Adams Show despite his statement that he would “potentially” be willing to come back to the Jets even without Rodgers. He could stay and take a pay cut, which would change the equation, but I’m not going to dig into the possibility for now.
The Jets could also try to trade Adams, which would have the same cap effect as cutting him.
There are a few other possible cuts (specifically Max Mitchell and Carter Warren), but these are the most likely ones. In total, the Jets would save $47.59 million from making these cuts. Let’s go back to the accounting ledger again.
- Rodgers outright release + voiding contracts + cuts: $16.74 million
- Renounce Rodgers option bonus + post-June 1 release + voiding contracts + cuts: $51.74 million
- Rodgers Post-June 1 release + voiding contracts + cuts: $44.74 million
At this point, it looks like the Jets may have no choice but to release Rodgers with a post-June 1 designation or keep him. The cap space is too tight otherwise.
Of course, the Jets could release Rodgers outright and then restructure some other contracts to give themselves more cap wiggle room. To some extent, that would be counterproductive, as it would simply push cap from other contracts into the future rather than Rodgers’ — either way, the money would count against the cap in the future.
However, the difference is that restructuring a few deals to push some money into the future could still come out to less than the $35 million (or $28 million) the Jets would push into the future with a post-June 1 designation for Rodgers. In other words, the Jets could re-structure Quinnen Williams’ contract and give Alijah Vera-Tucker an extension, pushing some money into the future but not $35 million at once.
Other moves (if the Jets keep Rodgers)
It’s hard for me to parse out what the Jets would do if they kept Rodgers. Would they still take the all-in mentality and continue to aggressively build the team as if they’re going to compete for a championship in 2025? That seems absurd to me, but it’s impossible to know what a new regime might think.
One way or another, Davante Adams will likely be back with the Jets if Rodgers stays. He and the Jets would need to find a middle ground for his contract, since his $35.64 million base salary is obviously untenable. It’s hard for me to imagine exactly what the terms would be, but I imagine that in such a scenario, the Jets would try to keep his 2025 cap hit down.
So, let’s assume Adams took a pay cut and counted $18 million against the Jets’ 2025 cap, which would save them $20.3 million. Presumably, they would still release Zuerlein, Clemons, and Ruckert, saving another $7.09 million.
Mosley is tricky, as you could argue that the Jets’ defense struggled without his leadership even though Jamien Sherwood was a strong replacement on the field. Still, I think the Jets would release him regardless with a post-June 1 designation, saving $4 million.
It’s hard for me to imagine that they would keep Lazard even if Rodgers stayed. But let’s say they did; he would need to take a major pay cut for them to even think about it.
On the surface, Lazard’s season-long totals were not terrible. He caught 37 balls for 530 yards and 6 touchdowns in 12 games, which would translate to 52 catches for 751 yards and 9 touchdowns over a 17-game season. He could justify staying close to his salary based on those numbers.
However, after the Jets acquired Adams, Lazard caught 11 of 21 targets (52.4%) for 167 yards and one touchdown in six games. Over the course of a 17-game season, that translates to 31 catches for 473 yards and three touchdowns — essentially WR4 numbers.
Given Lazard’s poor 2023 season, the perception of him across the league, and how he performed after the Adams trade, I imagine the Jets would not want to pay him more than a few million. His base salary in 2025 is currently $11 million. Would the Jets give him more than $4-5 million to stay next season?
So, let’s assume Lazard’s salary goes down to $5 million and his cap hit is reduced to $7.2 million, a $6 million savings.
Here’s the cap accounting in this scenario.
Rodgers pay cut (option bonus reduced to $22.5 million) + voiding contracts + cuts + other pay cuts: $34.5 million
Money + roster holes
Again, as mentioned earlier, the Jets will already have 22 empty roster spots just based on free agents prior to any releases. They will have eight starters to replace at the outset.
Let’s take a look at the accounting and the number of roster holes for each scenario.
- Rodgers outright release + voiding contracts + cuts: $16.74 million cap space, 30 empty roster spots, 12 starters to replace
- Renounce Rodgers option bonus + post-June 1 release + voiding contracts + cuts: $51.74 million cap space, 30 empty roster spots, 12 starters to replace
- Rodgers post-June 1 release + voiding contracts + cuts: $44.74 million cap space, 30 empty roster spots, 12 starters to replace
- Rodgers pay cut (option bonus reduced to $22.5 million) + voiding contracts + cuts + other pay cuts: $34.5 million cap space, 26 empty roster spots, 9 starters to replace
* Note: I included the kicker as a starter.
If the Jets keep Rodgers, they’ll also keep Adams, and I reluctantly included Lazard in there, too. Since I included the Jets releasing Mosley in every scenario, I did not count him as a separate starter to replace, as Jamien Sherwood is a free agent and was already included in the starters.
When you look at it this way, it becomes more evident that if the Jets do move on from Rodgers, they’ll likely be forced to do so with a post-June 1 designation.
One way or another, look at that accounting. The Jets may need to replace as many as 12 starters with as little as $16.74 million in cap space. Even if they end up with the maximum amount of cap space, $51.74 million, they’ll still have many starters to replace.
Yes, the Jets may get a starter or two in the draft. Maybe they’ll keep Tyrod Taylor as their starting quarterback, eliminating the need to replace the position. Maybe they can pick up a cheap starter here or there, like they did with Chuck Clark this year ($2 million). The kicker likely won’t cost more than a couple million.
Perhaps the Jets will replace D.J. Reed with Qwan’tez Stiggers or Jarrick Bernard-Converse, or re-sign Brandin Echols on the cheap, to cover one more starter.
Of course, there could be other factors that I mentioned but didn’t account for (such as a Vera-Tucker extension) or did not expect at all.
Furthermore, when teams sign free agents, they often defer the larger cap hits past the first year of the deal. This is not just a tactic utilized by teams that are “all in,” but a general NFL philosophy. Therefore, the cap space listed is not the actual amount needed to sign free agents.
But still, even $51.74 million in cap space is not all it’s cooked up to be. The Jets should not go on a spending spree in free agency. Perhaps they can make one bigger splash. For the most part, though, they should try to go the John Simpson route: find mid-level or slightly below mid-level players who possess some upside for fairly cheap.
As an aside, I am not criticizing Joe Douglas for the state of the Jets’ salary cap, for the most part. As harshly as I have blamed him for many of his moves, and even the dollar amount of his signings, I think he largely did what he needed to do for the Jets’ 2024 season. For a team that was all-in, deferring a lot of cap space to the future made sense.
The job of a new general manager, though, will be to re-calibrate the Jets’ cap situation toward a non-all-in season. That means trimming off the fat and not adding new players on big contracts.
This was, perhaps, an extraordinarily long-winded way of saying, don’t expect a big free agency period, Jets fans.
