You’ve seen the splits. “The New York Jets’ defense was still elite before Robert Saleh was fired, and look how much worse they got after he was fired.”
The numbers are certainly jarring. According to the NFL analytics website RBSDM, the Jets ranked sixth-best in defensive EPA per play (Expected Points Added) from Weeks 1-5 when Saleh donned the headset. Over the remaining 13 weeks after Saleh was canned, they ranked 30th.
Given the starkness of that split, it is very easy to connect the dots and claim that Saleh’s firing caused the Jets’ defensive collapse. This is the prevailing narrative that seems to be accepted by most observers.
But is it really that simple?
While it seems plausible that Saleh’s firing likely had some degree of negative impact on the Jets’ defense, it seems wildly excessive to suggest that his firing represents the difference between New York fielding the sixth-ranked defense and the 30th-ranked defense.
In reality, if you contextualize the Jets’ first five games under Saleh, it becomes clear that the Jets were probably doomed for a poor defensive season even if Saleh remained in New York for the remainder of the season.
Let’s unpack the Jets’ first five games of the season.
Week 1 at 49ers
New York’s defensive cracks were revealed in the very first game of the season.
The Jets’ defense was dismantled by the 49ers in Week 1. New York yielded 32 points, 401 yards, and 24 first downs while forcing no turnovers. San Francisco scored on eight of its first nine drives before taking a knee to end the final drive. It felt like this game was over early in the third quarter, and the 49ers took their foot off the gas pedal a bit after that point.
If you apply a light garbage time filter by simply isolating plays where the offensive team’s win probability was between 4%-96%, the Jets ranked 29th in defensive EPA per play in Week 1. Simply remove that filter – which means we’re adding plays when the 49ers had a 96-99.9% chance of winning – and the Jets suddenly rise five spots to a more respectable 24th on Week 1’s defensive EPA per play leaderboard. This exemplifies the importance of garbage time filtering.
At the time, many people chose to write this performance off since San Francisco was considered an elite opponent, but the Niners did not end up being quite as formidable as they were believed to be in Week 1. San Francisco finished the year ranked ninth in offensive DVOA (per FTN Fantasy) after placing first in 2023. And their Week 1 team was diminished, featuring no Christian McCaffrey, no Ricky Pearsall, and rusty versions of Brandon Aiyuk and Trent Williams after long holdouts.
Then-unheralded running back Jordan Mason pounded the Jets for 147 rushing yards, which ended up being his season-high. It was a sign of things to come for a soft run defense that had lost one of its best players, John Franklin-Myers, in the offseason.
Meanwhile, a pass rush already facing question marks due to the offseason losses of Franklin-Myers, Huff, and Quinton Jefferson (along with Haason Reddick’s holdout) could only get three QB hits across Brock Purdy’s 32 dropbacks. Even that stat belies how bad the Jets’ pass rush was in this game; one of the two hits was a “sack” where Purdy scrambled back to the line for no gain, and another was a “sack” where Purdy intentionally went down late in the fourth quarter to milk the clock. Outside of those two plays, the Jets knocked Purdy down once.
The Jets’ defense improved over the next four games against lesser offenses, but ninth-ranked San Francisco was the only top 14 offense (based on DVOA) that New York faced over the first five weeks of the season. Against that challenge, their most concerning defensive questions were exposed. Those issues would return when the Jets started facing top-tier offenses again, but that just so happened to not be until after Saleh was fired.
Week 2 at Titans
In a narrow road victory, the Jets wound up holding the Titans to a respectable 17 points, but Jets fans came out of Nashville with increased nerves about the defense. It was very frustrating to watch them in this game. There were stretches when they had no answer for… Will Levis.
Tennessee is a poor offensive team. This was the consensus at the time and it turned out to be true, as the Titans finished 31st in offensive DVOA. Yet, the Titans had their way with the Jets for much of this game. In fact, according to Pro Football Reference, they finished with +1.6 expected points on offense, which amounted to their fifth-best total of the season and one of only six positive performances.
The Titans finished the game with 300 yards, 20 first downs, and 17 points. Those are pedestrian numbers for a normal NFL team, but for the Titans, this was abnormal. It ended up being Tennessee’s fifth-best first down total of 2024, and one of just three games where they reached 20+ first downs and 17+ points.
And Tennessee was inches away from an even better output. A 10-play, 72-yard Titans drive in the second quarter was thwarted only because Levis decided to literally throw the ball away unprompted, giving the Jets a lucky takeaway. Later, holding onto a seven-point lead in the fourth quarter, the Jets allowed the Titans to drive 56 yards on 13 plays, nearly allowing a game-tying or game-winning touchdown with under 30 seconds left, but they managed to stop the bleeding just in time.
Considering the quality of the opponent, this was not a performance to be impressed by. That made it two consecutive underwhelming games to start the season for New York’s defense.
Week 3 vs. Patriots
This was by far the Jets’ most dominant defensive performance of the season. They allowed 139 yards, 11 first downs, and three points in a game where New England did not look like an NFL-caliber team. Dreams of a Super Bowl ring danced in Jets fans’ heads after this one.
Give the Jets credit. The only caveat is that New England is a weak opponent (finishing 30th in offensive DVOA), but this was brutal even by the Patriots’ own standards, finishing as their worst output of 2024 in terms of both yards and points.
It is also worth noting that Jacoby Brissett started in Week 3, while Drake Maye proved to be an upgrade later in the season. Still, a performance of this caliber cannot be nitpicked, especially since the same Brissett-led Pats offense shredded New York later in the season without Saleh. Great work here.
Week 4 vs. Broncos
The turning point of the Jets’ season.
Analyzing the Jets’ defense in this game is an interesting endeavor. On the surface, it looks phenomenal: 10 points, 12 first downs, 186 yards.
Some context is worth adding, though. Most importantly, a steady rain was coming down for much of this game. It was no monsoon, but the conditions clearly affected the game for all four quarters, ranging from drops, to poor throws, to fumbles, and missed kicks.
The weather’s most notable effect was that it caused Broncos quarterback Bo Nix to badly misfire on a plethora of makeable throws. Nix registered an abysmal CPOE (completion percentage over expected) of -19.5%, per NFL Next Gen Stats. This amounted to the third-worst mark of the 2024 NFL season by a quarterback with at least 20 pass attempts in a game. This suggests Nix was just flat-out whiffing rather than New York providing great coverage, and if you go back to rewatch that game, you will see that was the case.
The Jets also caught Denver’s offense at the right time. While the Broncos finished with 10 wins and a 16th-ranked offense in DVOA, Nix and the offense did not hit their stride until later on. Nix came to MetLife Stadium with no touchdown passes over his first three NFL games, and in three of the following five games, he finished with a sub-85 passer rating.
Nix finished 2024 ranked sixth in touchdown passes (29) and 17th in passer rating (93.3) among quarterbacks with at least 300 pass attempts. However, all the way through Week 9, Nix still ranked just 23rd in touchdown passes and had the third-worst passer rating among quarterbacks with at least 150 pass attempts (79.6).
Given Nix’s obvious positive trajectory throughout the season as a rookie quarterback getting acclimated to the NFL, it’s fair to say that he and the Broncos provided New York with a weak offensive opponent in Week 4 even if their final regular season numbers are about average. Combined with the miserable weather, the Jets’ defense had this one served to them on a silver platter.
Week 5 at Vikings
This was easily the Jets’ best defensive performance of 2024 when considering the opponent and the circumstances handed to them.
Playing overseas against a thriving Vikings offense while also dealing with anemic support from the offense, New York held Minnesota to 16 points (counting out seven from a pick-six), 253 yards, 17 first downs, and two turnovers. It amounted to Minnesota’s worst yardage total of the 2024 season.
The Jets silenced Sam Darnold at a time when it seemed impossible. After he began the year with four consecutive games of 2+ touchdown passes and a 100+ passer rating, Darnold threw no touchdowns and posted a 50.3 passer rating against his old team. He came out of the Jets game with another three consecutive games of a 100+ passer rating.
Minnesota finished only 15th in offensive DVOA, but they were red-hot at the time of this game. The Jets were the first team to cool them off.
There are no holes to poke in this one. This was an excellent defensive outing despite the final score. All blame for this loss goes to the offense.
What was the true impact of Saleh’s firing?
To recap, this is how the Jets’ defense performed in its first five games:
- Week 1 at SF (9th in offensive DVOA): Poor
- Week 2 at TEN (31st): Underwhelming
- Week 3 vs. NE (30th): Dominant, but weak opponent
- Week 4 vs. DEN (16th): Great, but aided by weak opponent (at the time) and favorable weather
- Week 5 at MIN (15th): Great
While this stretch is slightly overrated due to the overlooked struggles from Weeks 1-2, this is undoubtedly a better body of work than the one New York put together over its ensuing 12 games. In particular, the production from Weeks 3-5 was elite. New York never came anywhere close to elite defensive production after Saleh was fired, performing respectably at best. Regardless of the opponents or circumstances, Saleh deserves credit for that.
However, there are legitimate caveats that likely explain the difference in production more than Saleh’s firing.
The Jets’ defense arguably never had circumstances as favorable as their games from Weeks 2-4 over the rest of the year. The primary game that fans might point to is the Week 15 Jacksonville game, but the Jaguars actually finished just one spot (17th) behind the Broncos (16th) in offensive DVOA (it was the Jaguars’ pitiful defense that tanked their record), which means the Broncos’ early-season struggles and the bad weather make Week 4 clearly the easier game.
From Week 5 onward, the Jets were rarely given “easy” opportunities defensively. New York faced only two of the league’s bottom 10 offenses (based on DVOA) across 12 games from Weeks 6-18: the 26th-ranked Texans and their second game against the 30th-ranked Patriots. The game in New England was an inexplicable disaster. But against Houston, the Jets sacked C.J. Stroud eight times, held him to a career-low 36.7% completion rate, and limited Houston to 13 points.
Did Saleh truly make the Jets’ defense that much better? Or did the Jets just happen to have three of their easiest offensive matchups within the first five games?
The answer likely lies in the middle. It would make plenty of sense if the defense suffered from losing its head coach in the middle of the season, especially considering how far out of the left field Saleh’s firing was. That probably laid a dent in team morale – the players have said as much.
Plus, Saleh is a respected defensive mind who achieved great success as San Francisco’s defensive coordinator and then built another elite defense with the Jets. Say what you will about him as a head coach, but it is difficult to question his defensive acumen. Removing his perspective from the building probably reduced the quality of the Jets’ game plans, while adding extra responsibility to Jeff Ulbrich’s plate probably affected his ability to give the same level of dedication to the defense.
It is a near certainty that losing Saleh hurt the Jets’ defense to some degree. But was it such a mammoth loss that it made the night-and-day difference between New York being a top-six defense and a bottom-three defense?
Probably not.
Comparing the Jets’ defensive stats between pre- and post-Saleh firing is a rudimentary analysis that ignores context. When you unpack the entire situation, it is hyperbolic to suggest firing Saleh made that large a difference. Still, it likely made a difference to some degree.
The Jets’ defensive downfall was long in the making before they even took the field in 2024. In the offseason, they lost three of their five best pass rushers from 2023: Bryce Huff, John Franklin-Myers, and Quinton Jefferson. These three players were responsible for 42% of the Jets’ total pressures and 41% of their sacks in 2023.
Haason Reddick was added to replace Huff, but his holdout ended up costing him half of the season, and he was a shell of himself when he returned. Javon Kinlaw was Jefferson’s replacement, but that never made sense considering Kinlaw’s career production paled in comparison to Jefferson’s, and Kinlaw predictably was unable to replicate Jefferson.
The worst crime, though, was dumping Franklin-Myers for pennies and doing nothing to replace him. Franklin-Myers was the Jets’ most formidable edge-setter against the run and a valuable interior pass-rush presence. Losing Franklin-Myers without finding an adequate replacement was a major blow.
Then, Jermaine Johnson tore his Achilles in Week 2. For a few weeks, the Jets weathered the storm without Johnson against a favorable schedule, but that injury was always bound to crush the Jets, even if Saleh remained.
If you want one simple factoid that suggests New York was always doomed for a steep defensive decline this year, I offer you this: Micheal Clemons started 17 games for the Jets in 2024.
Saleh wasn’t going to coach his way around that.
Few coaches would, but Saleh was particularly unsuited to do so. His defensive scheme in New York was highly talent-dependent. Its philosophy was to reduce thinking and complexity to increase the players’ freedom to be aggressive and fly around.
This approach exponentially increases the defense’s output when the collective talent level is high, as it accentuates the players’ one-on-one abilities and minimizes the time they spend being reduced to role-playing chess pieces in complex pressure schemes. But when the talent isn’t there, the scheme is doomed. Rushing four all day long with two of your starters being Javon Kinlaw and Micheal Clemons was never going to work. Only a highly creative defensive scheme built around heavy blitzing could have overcome the loss of talent, and Saleh did not run such a scheme.
Yes, losing Saleh hurt the Jets’ defense. It didn’t hurt as much as a simple comparison of the Jets’ stats would suggest, though. They were in for a rough year on defense no matter what.
Now, it’s up to Aaron Glenn and Darren Mougey to pick up the pieces and rebuild this unit back to prominence.
