The New York Jets have a new-look offense entering 2026, especially in the passing game.

With a new play-caller, a new quarterback, and two first-round picks, the group is completely revamped. Today, we break down what the Jets’ passing attack could end up looking like from a statistical standpoint, including projections for Geno Smith and his pass catchers.

How often will Smith throw the ball?

After the Jets took a more “ground and pound” approach last season with Justin Fields, which failed miserably (to put it mildly), the Jets are seemingly transitioning to a more pass-heavy offense with Smith, who profiles as a traditional pocket passer.

Over the past four seasons, this is how many passing attempts Smith has logged and where he ranked among QBs.

  • 2022: 572 attempts (8th)
  • 2023: 499 attempts (14th)
  • 2024: 578 attempts (4th)
  • 2025: 448 attempts (18th)

Taking the average of the four, we can expect Smith to throw about 525 pass attempts in 2026.

Using that number, we will start by predicting Smith’s individual stats before divvying the production up among the Jets’ pass catchers.

The Jets are hoping that Smith can produce at a level similar to his peak with the Seattle Seahawks from 2022 to 2024, rather than his performance with the Las Vegas Raiders in 2025.

It isn’t a far-fetched outcome.

Yes, Smith was disastrous with the Raiders last season. He led them to a 2-13 record while completing 67.4% of his passing attempts for 3,025 yards, 19 touchdowns, and an NFL-high 17 interceptions.

Here is a look at some of his analytics and where they ranked among 31 qualified quarterbacks (minimum 290 dropbacks).

  • 6.8 yards per attempt (22nd)
  • 3.0% big time throw rate (27th)
  • 4.1% turnover worthy play rate (3rd-highest)
  • 6.9 ADOT (second-lowest)
  • 25.9% pressure to sack rate (highest)
  • 84.7 passer rating (28th)

The results were poor, but there were many contributing factors beyond Smith’s control.

The Raiders’ offensive line was among the worst in the league, while Las Vegas’ coaching staff was incompetent. The line posted the fifth-worst pass-blocking grade in the NFL at 56.9, according to Pro Football Focus.

The decision to hire Pete Carroll as head coach was laughable to begin with, and the same could be said about the hiring of offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, who was fired in-season while Carroll went one-and-done.

Not only will Smith have a stronger supporting cast in 2026, but he also seems to fit perfectly with the Jets’ offensive coordinator, Frank Reich.

Of course, there is also the possibility that Smith has just lost it. Perhaps last season was the nail in the coffin, and entering his age-36 season, he has lost a step from his days with the Seahawks, leaving the Jets with the 2025 version of Smith.

Sure. It’s possible.

However, I happen to be in the camp, alongside my esteemed colleague Michael Nania, that Smith is certainly capable of leading the Jets to a competitive season and putting together the strongest season of any Jets quarterback over the last decade, even if that isn’t a very high bar.

Here are my statistical projections for Smith in 2026.

  • Smith’s 2026 numbers: 346-for-525 (65.9%), 3,950 yards, 24 passing touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 7.5 yards per attempt, 94.1 passer rating

How will those numbers be divided among the Jets’ receivers?

Garrett Wilson is the clear No. 1

Garrett Wilson will be the Jets’ No. 1 pass catcher in 2026; there is no doubt about that.

In all three of his healthy NFL seasons, Wilson has eclipsed 1,000 yards. He even led the team with 395 receiving yards last year, despite playing in just seven games.

Throughout his three healthy seasons in the league (2022-24), here is a look at Wilson’s target volume and where it ranked among receivers:

  • 2022: 139 targets (7th)
  • 2023: 163 targets (4th)
  • 2024: 152 targets (3rd)

Across his NFL career, Wilson has averaged 9.1 targets per game. Expect that to decrease a little this season. That is because the Jets have finally surrounded Wilson with other viable pass catchers, something he has lacked throughout his career.

If Smith produces at the level I think he will, 2026 could be Wilson’s best season yet, thanks to steady quarterback play. His best season, based on yards (1,104) and touchdowns (7), came in 2024 with Aaron Rodgers at QB.

I expect Wilson to have a career-best receiving yards, with Smith being the ideal QB to finally unlock his downfield game. However, I don’t think he will have as much red-zone production, largely due to the arrival of Kenyon Sadiq and the contested-catch prowess Mason Taylor flashed in his rookie season.

  • Wilson’s 2026 numbers: 115 targets (6.7 per game), 78 receptions, 1,200 yards, 3 touchdowns

The young bucks

Tight end Kenyon Sadiq and wide receiver Omar Cooper Jr., whom the Jets each selected in the first round of April’s NFL draft, are expected to take on significant roles for the Jets immediately.

Cooper Jr. is expected to be the team’s WR2 behind Wilson, while Sadiq has the potential to become a dynamic all-around threat if his hands and route-running improve. The good news is that he can fit seamlessly alongside Taylor, who had a strong rookie year.

Despite playing with three different quarterbacks in his rookie campaign, including an undrafted free agent, Taylor posted a 79% contested catch rate, the second-best among qualified tight ends, trailing only George Kittle. Based on what he flashed in Year 1, Taylor has the potential to become the Jets’ go-to target in the red zone.

Reich has also historically favored tight ends throughout his career as an offensive play-caller. In Reich’s first season with the Indianapolis Colts (2018), Eric Ebron scored 13 touchdowns, while in Reich’s two seasons with the Philadelphia Eagles (2016-17), Zach Ertz led the team with 12 receiving touchdowns.

After being acquired in-season, Adonai Mitchell also flashed promise down the stretch. He has done an excellent job throughout his first two NFL seasons of creating separation, and with competent quarterback play, he has the upside to be a real difference maker if he can eliminate drops from his game.

Here are my projections for Sadiq, Cooper Jr., Mitchell, and Taylor in 2026.

  • Kenyon Sadiq: 85 targets (5 per game), 64 receptions, 535 yards, 4 touchdowns
  • Omar Cooper Jr: 68 targets (4 per game), 42 receptions, 430 yards, 3 touchdowns
  • Adonai Mitchell: 55 targets (3.2 per game), 32 receptions, 385 yards, 3 touchdowns
  • Mason Taylor: 75 targets (4.4 per game), 52 receptions, 427 yards, 7 touchdowns

The rest of the pack

Wilson, Cooper Jr., Mitchell, and Taylor will have the vast majority of the Jets’ receiving output this season alongside running back Breece Hall.

Here is a look at my projections for Hall and the remaining players on the Jets’ offense.

  • Breece Hall: 50 targets (2.9 per game), 35 receptions, 425 yards, 2 touchdowns
  • Jeremy Ruckert: 23 targets (1.3 per game), 15 receptions, 165 yards, 1 touchdown
  • Tim Patrick: 20 targets (1.1 per game), 12 receptions, 180 yards, 1 touchdown
  • Arian Smith: 15 targets (0.8 per game), 7 receptions, 112 yards, 0 touchdowns
  • Isaiah Williams: 19 targets (1.1 per game), 9 receptions, 91 yards, 0 touchdowns

Recap

  • Geno Smith: 346-for-525 (65.9%), 3,950 yards, 24 passing touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 7.5 yards per attempt, 94.1 passer rating
  • Garrett Wilson: 115 targets (6.7 per game), 78 receptions, 1,200 yards, 3 touchdowns
  • Kenyon Sadiq: 85 targets (5 per game), 64 receptions, 535 yards, 4 touchdowns
  • Omar Cooper Jr: 68 targets (4 per game), 42 receptions, 430 yards, 3 touchdowns
  • Adonai Mitchell: 55 targets (3.2 per game), 32 receptions, 385 yards, 3 touchdowns
  • Mason Taylor: 75 targets (4.4 per game), 52 receptions, 427 yards, 7 touchdowns
  • Breece Hall: 50 targets (2.9 per game), 35 receptions, 425 yards, 2 touchdowns
  • Jeremy Ruckert: 23 targets (1.3 per game), 15 receptions, 165 yards, 1 touchdown
  • Tim Patrick: 20 targets (1.1 per game), 12 receptions, 180 yards, 1 touchdown
  • Arian Smith: 15 targets (0.8 per game), 8 receptions, 112 yards, 0 touchdowns
  • Isaiah Williams: 19 targets (1.1 per game), 8 receptions, 91 yards, 0 touchdowns

What do you think? Am I too high on Smith and the passing attack as a whole, or is the optimism justified?