Quarterback. Wide receiver. Defensive tackle. Edge rusher. Offensive tackle. Cornerback.
Those are some of the most common positions mocked to the New York Jets in mock drafts. NFL Mock Draft Database currently lists LSU offensive tackle Will Campbell as the Jets’ consensus pick, albeit at just 15% popularity. Penn State defensive tackle Mason Graham actually has the highest percentage (23.4%), but his top spot is at No. 5 to the Jaguars.
But then comes along a mock draft by NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein that selects a polarizing and jaw-dropping pick for the Jets: running back Ashton Jeanty out of Boise State.
What?! A running back?
Jeanty is the 10th overall prospect on NFL Mock Draft Database’s consensus big board, which indicates that many if not most prognosticators view No. 7 as a relatively fair draft spot for him. The 21-year-old posted 2,287 rushing yards, 7.3 yards per carry, and 28 rushing touchdowns in 2024. He led all FBS backs with 5.42 yards after contact per attempt, 124 missed tackles forced, and 55 rushes of 10+ yards.
However, Jeanty did not do much as a receiver, catching just 18 of 28 balls for 102 yards (including three drops). In today’s NFL, being able to catch the ball out of the backfield is a must for all starting running backs not named Derrick Henry, let alone a top-10 pick.
My assumption is that Zierlein is overrating the running back position after seeing the impact that Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry had on their teams. Or maybe he just overrates the position altogether, as hinted at in his blurb about the Jeanty pick:
“The analytics community won’t like this pick, but so be it. The Jets have a stagnant attack, and Breece Hall has not reached 1,000 yards rushing in any of his three seasons. Jeanty provides instant adrenaline to the offense and creates buzz in Aaron Glenn’s first season as head coach.”
This blurb tells us three core beliefs Zierlein has: 1) disdain for analytics, b) drafting a running back high will “create buzz” for a stagnant attack, and c) raw rushing yardage matters.
I’m not even sure where to start here, to be honest. I listed 10 different positions of need for the Jets this offseason, and running back was not one of them. To be fair, it’s not that I don’t think the Jets could use running back help; I just believe it’s not the best use of their resources.
Breece Hall undoubtedly had a bad year in 2024. However, the fact that he failed to reach 1,000 yards says nothing about his season. He had a fantastic season in 2023 without reaching 1,000 yards (falling just 6 yards shy behind a porous offensive line). And bringing up the statistic is that much more absurd considering that Hall played in only seven games in his rookie season.
Hall’s 4.2 yards per carry tells part of the story of how his 2024 season went, but it’s in the advanced statistics where you can truly see his downfall. Out of 38 qualified running backs (min. 120 carries), Hall ranked 25th in rush yards over expected per carry (0.0), 32nd in EPA per carry (-0.16), and 35th in success rate (34.4%).
Still, does that mean the Jets should waste their first-round pick on a replacement? For one thing, the Jets used two draft picks on running backs in 2024. Neither Braelon Allen nor Isaiah Davis was overly impressive, particularly when it came to breaking tackles. Nevertheless, the Jets don’t have the luxury of drafting a running back high.
Now, since Aaron Glenn came from Detroit, it’s always possible. The Lions picked Jahmyr Gibbs at No. 12 overall in the 2023 draft. They desperately needed cornerback help, and they arguably should have taken Christian Gonzalez. But they were intent on forming their “Sonic and Knuckles” backfield, and at least on paper, it appears to have worked. (I still argue that Gonzalez would have been the right pick.)
Additionally, the Jets could technically release Hall to save some money. His cap hit in 2025 is $4.3 million, and the Jets would save $3.3 million in cap space if they released him with just $934,000 in dead cap.
I don’t think the Jets are going to do this — release Hall or draft Jeanty. But with a new coaching staff and the winding history of this franchise, I can’t say I really know anything anymore.