Will the New York Jets go with a bridge quarterback or force the envelope?
Rumors abound that the Jets are interested in trading up for a quarterback. If that is true, they’ll likely need to move up to No. 1 overall to ensure that they get the player they want. If the Titans are willing to forgo their quarterback of the future, the Browns (No. 2) and Giants (No. 3) loom right behind them, as well as the Raiders (No. 6), one spot ahead of the Jets.
If the Jets do want to trade up, how much will it cost them?
Let’s first go back to the most recent trades up in the draft and their price.
Bryce Young (2023)
This trade may turn out to be one of the biggest heists in NFL history, although Caleb Williams’ difficult rookie season places a different light on the trade for now.
Despite the statistical invalidity of the Jimmy Johnson trade chart, recent trades indicate that NFL teams still stay close to the chart in their draft trades.
The rule of thumb for the Johnson chart is to deduct one round for every year in the future that a pick is. For example, if a team in this year’s draft trades a 2026 first-round pick, the Johnson chart would evaluate that as equivalent to a 2025 second-round pick (at the same draft spot).
When it comes to including a player in a pick swap, the numbers become murkier. The best way to approximate the player’s value is to compare him to similar players who were previously traded for picks.
So, to find D.J. Moore’s value in 2023, you need to compare him to similar players who had been traded around the same time. Such comparisons include A.J. Brown (996 points), Stefon Diggs (roughly 1,000 points), and Brandin Cooks (760 points).
There were differences with each player: Brown was somewhat better, Diggs was viewed as more explosive, and Moore was younger than Cooks with more consistency. Moore also had a more favorable contract than Brown and Diggs.
Using those three receivers as a comparison, Moore was worth roughly a mid-first-round pick (750-900 points). Let’s use the No. 20 overall pick (850 points).
So, now, let’s look at the trade comparison.
Panthers receive:
- 2023 No. 1 overall pick (3,000 points)
Bears receive:
- WR D.J. Moore (~850 points)
- 2023 No. 9 overall pick (1,350 points)
- 2023 No. 61 overall pick (292 points)
- 2024 first-round pick (counted as a second-round pick, 490 points)
- 2025 second-round pick (counted as a fourth-round pick, 84 points)
According to this calculation, the Panthers received 3,000 points, and the Bears received 3,066 points. This is likely why the trade was evaluated as fair even though it seemed incredibly one-sided on paper.
Trey Lance (2021)
Although Kyle Shanahan reportedly wanted Zach Wilson, the Jets had a stranglehold on the No. 2 overall pick and were all but certain to draft Wilson. Therefore, despite rumors that Mac Jones was Shanahan’s target, the 49ers traded up from No. 12 overall to No. 3 to draft Trey Lance.
Here was the trade value according to the Johnson chart.
49ers receive:
- 2021 No. 3 overall pick (2,200 points)
Dolphins receive:
- 2021 No. 12 overall pick (1,200 points)
- 2022 first-round pick (counted as second-round pick, 460 points)
- 2023 first-round pick (counted as third-round pick, 210 points)
- 2022 third-round pick (counted as fourth-round pick, 78 points)
With this calculation, the 49ers received 2,200 points, and the Dolphins received 1,948 points. points. Presumably, the Dolphins valued the first-round picks from 2022 and 2023 as less than one or two full rounds below the current year’s value, as this trade would be in the 49ers’ favor otherwise.
Justin Fields (2021)
Bears receive:
- 2021 No. 11 overall pick (1,250 points)
Giants receive:
- 2021 No. 20 overall pick (850 points)
- 2021 No. 164 pick (26.8 points)
- 2022 first-round pick (counted as second-round pick, 380 points)
- 2022 fourth-round pick (counted as fifth-round pick, 32.2 points)
The Bears received 1,250 points, and the Giants received 1,289 points.
With these three trades, we can draw a few conclusions.
- Teams value future picks differently, especially first-round picks. It appears the Giants and Bears evaluated them as one full round below, whereas the Dolphins did not go a full round lower.
- In a trade up for a quarterback, giving up a second first-round pick is pretty much required.
So what would a Jets trade up for the No. 1 overall pick look like?
2025 New York Jets
Jets receive:
- 2025 No. 1 overall pick (3,000 points)
Titans receive:
- 2025 No. 7 overall pick (1,500 points)
- 2025 No. 42 overall pick (510 points)
- 2025 No. 92 overall pick (132 points)
- 2026 first-round pick (counted as second-rounder, 510 points)
- 2026 second-round pick (counted as third-rounder, 235 points)
- 2026 third-round pick (counted as fourth-rounder, 88 points)
This would give the Titans 2,975 points to counter the Jets’ 3,000 points.
If this is what it would cost the Jets to trade up to No. 1 overall, it’s hard to imagine they would do it. Even if they replace some of those picks with their 2027 first-rounder, mortgaging the future to that degree would be akin to what the 49ers did in 2021 for Trey Lance. That 49ers team had a much better roster than the Jets currently do, and Lance was also considered a far better prospect than Cam Ward or Shedeur Sanders.
There are a few factors that could change this calculation. For one thing, the Titans don’t have a ton of leverage given the weak quarterback class. As much as the Jets might want to trade up, the fact that the Titans don’t want to draft a quarterback hurts their ability to trade down.
Furthermore, perhaps the Titans value a future first-rounder more like the Dolphins did in the Lance trade. That would mitigate the number of picks the Jets would need to give up.
Still, consider that when the Chiefs traded up for Patrick Mahomes in 2017, they gave up the No. 27 overall pick, a third-rounder, and the following year’s first-round pick to move up to No. 10 overall. And that was Mahomes, whom Andy Reid clearly had a strong conviction about, or he never would have made that trade despite having a Pro Bowl quarterback (Alex Smith).
Neither Ward nor Sanders has that kind of clout. Most of the scouting landscape considers them mid-first-round prospects at best, making them top-10 picks only because of the value of the quarterback position and the dearth of top-end prospects.
If the Bears-Panthers trade for Bryce Young was considered a heist for the Bears, this would be considered an absolute plunder for the Titans. If the Jets truly had to give this up for the No. 1 pick, it’s hard to imagine they would pull the trigger.
Then again, it depends on how desperate they are for a quarterback and how convinced they are that the player they’re trading for is “the guy.” A franchise quarterback can change a team’s fortunes extremely quickly, and the Jets may just choose to go all-in in search of their savior.
