On Friday, I lauded Darren Mougey and the New York Jets for their savvy free agent signings of Stone Smartt and Byron Cowart. Each player provides uniquely high upside based on the efficiency they showed in their limited roles, yet are low-risk investments because of their under-the-radar reputations.
Thus, the Smartt and Cowart signings stood out as perfect fits for the economical free agency strategy New York has elected to utilize in this transitional stage of their rebuild process. I implored the Jets to add more players who fit the same mold, hypothesizing that Mougey is bound to find at least one gem if he continues to stockpile such players.
Enter Tyler Johnson.
In the wee hours of Saturday morning, the Jets agreed to terms with the former Los Angeles Rams wide receiver. Much like Smartt and Cowart, a quick skim of Johnson’s resume is not going to elicit excitement from the casual fan.
A 2020 fifth-round pick out of Minnesota, Johnson has accumulated meager production across his five NFL seasons. In 49 games, he boasts a stat line of 76 receptions for 828 yards and four touchdowns. His most productive season from a box-score standpoint was four years ago, when he posted career-highs of 36 receptions and 360 yards for the 2021 Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Many fans groan at these types of signings, yearning for something that is easier to get on board with. And, sometimes, players with resumes like this truly are no more than a camp body. But when you peek beneath the hood with Johnson – just like with Smartt and Cowart – you discover the hidden potential that prompted a re-tooling team like the Jets to take a low-risk shot on him.
Tyler Johnson has the tools
In multiple facets of the wide receiver position, Johnson has already built a track record of success at the NFL level. While his weaknesses have outweighed these strengths (more on that later), the positives of Johnson’s game form an intriguing foundation to build upon.
For starters, Johnson is an excellent contested-catch threat. At 6-foot-1 and 208 pounds, he possesses a sturdy frame for the position, and he uses it to his advantage. In his career, Johnson has secured 12 of his 17 contested targets, per Pro Football Focus, a whopping 70.6% rate.
There are several types of plays that could fall under the “contested” umbrella. Johnson is particularly adept at physical tight-window throws in the short-to-intermediate range (think Eric Decker), rather than acrobatic jump balls on vertical routes (a la Garrett Wilson). All 12 of his career contested catches came under 20 yards downfield, and eight of the 12 were under 10 yards downfield.
On top of his contested-catch skills, Johnson is reliable at securing the freebies. He only has four career drops compared to 76 receptions, giving him a 5.0% drop rate. That is more than a full point better than the 2024 league average for wide receivers (6.4%).
Adding to his strong hands, Johnson is elusive with the ball in his hands. He has forced 14 career missed tackles on 76 receptions, an impressive average of 0.184 per reception. For perspective, that is 46% better than the 2024 league average for wide receivers (0.126).
The 2024 season was easily Johnson’s best as a YAC threat. He forced eight missed tackles on just 26 receptions, an absurd 0.308 per reception. This helped him accumulate 117 YAC over expected, per NFL Next Gen Stats, which was seventh-best at the position:
- 1. Ja’Marr Chase (294)
- 2. CeeDee Lamb (232)
- 3. A.J. Brown (158)
- 4. Puka Nacua (124)
- T5. Zay Flowers (120)
- T5. Deebo Samuel (120)
- 7. Tyler Johnson (117)
- 8. Chris Godwin (112)
- 9. Marvin Mims (108)
- 10. Brian Thomas (106)
So what’s held him back?
Johnson has all of these skills, and yet, the man has 828 yards and four touchdowns in a half-decade of professional football. What gives?
Well, do the math. If he makes contested catches, rarely drops passes, and is elusive with the ball, the only thing that could cause him to be unproductive despite these skills is poor separation.
Johnson makes his opportunities count, but he doesn’t create many of those opportunities. A few metrics back this up.
For one, Johnson is averaging only 1.06 yards per route run in his career, which is well below the positional average of 1.49. This suggests that he does not get open consistently enough to attract targets and make a steady impact when he is on the field.
Johnson has a career average of one target every 7.0 routes run, which is comfortably behind the 2024 positional average of 5.5. If a wide receiver is targeted at a low frequency, it usually indicates they struggle to get open.
Johnson showed signs of progress in 2024. Over his first four seasons, his career averages were 0.92 yards per route run and 8.1 routes run per target. In 2024, he jumped to career-highs of 1.46 and 5.1, respectively, both in the neighborhood of the positional average.
Still, route-running is the weakness that holds Johnson back, making him a relative no-name to the casual NFL fan despite his tantalizing abilities in multiple areas. If he can improve his separation, he has an intriguing ceiling, as his on-ball production is fantastic. He just needs to get the ball to come his way more often.
Despite his progress in 2024, there were still some examples of Johnson’s route-running issues on film.
Alongside his overall lack of separation, Johnson has yet to display any sort of potential as a deep threat. He only has two deep receptions (20+ air yards) in his career, coming across six targets.
Blocking is a weakness for Johnson as well. For his career, he has a composite run-blocking grade of 47.0 at Pro Football Focus, which is poor.
Johnson’s lack of blocking could be a factor in why he has not been able to get on the field more often; he is averaging just 9.7 run-play snaps per game in his career. If a non-star wide receiver cannot be trusted as a blocker, there are certain packages his coaches might exclude him from, which, in turn, will limit his pass-game snaps as well.
The potential is excellent relative to the cost
Johnson is far from a complete receiver and cannot be considered a sure thing for New York in any capacity going into 2024. Despite the positives we broke down today, if Johnson were viewed as a reliable weapon in NFL circles, he would have commanded more interest in free agency.
That is why he is a flier, though. The Jets aren’t taking any risk with this signing (the terms are yet to be reported, but it is safe to assume it will be a cheap one-year deal). When teams sign players like this, they just want to see some form of upside that suggests the player has a chance to outperform his contract and provide tremendous return-on-investment. With his proven track record of strong hands and exceptional elusiveness, Johnson has that potential.
The Jets are not trying to win Super Bowl LX, nor are they tanking. Their goal is to re-tool the nucleus of the roster without compromising their long-term assets. Low-risk free agent signings are a core component of that team-building approach.
But there are different types of low-risk free agent signings. Some of them offer little to no hope of being anything more than a competent backup, and that’s fine; you need competent backups. Others shined in their roles and maximized their limited opportunities, suggesting they could be something more, even if their career track record keeps their price low. Johnson, Smartt, and Cowart fit into that group.
In all likelihood, these three players will perform to their pay grade and fail to tap into the potential they displayed through their efficiency in 2024. But as the Jets continue to stockpile these signings, they raise their odds of unearthing just one gem out of a high quantity of signings that carry no long-term risk. That is precisely the strategy Darren Mougey should be using as he bridges the Jets to the future.
Still just 26 years old and coming off a career-best year (efficiency-wise) in which he showed route-running strides, Johnson is an intriguing pickup for New York. At worst, the Jets lose nothing for a worthwhile flier. The middle-ground outcome is that he replicates his 2024 season with Los Angeles, slotting in as a solid complementary receiver with a few niche skills. The ceiling is that he takes one more leap and emerges as an absolute steal.
Aaron Glenn’s staff will be tested in its first season together. Rather than paying up for proven studs, Mougey is accumulating pieces of clay for the coaches to mold. Johnson is among the most interesting of those. He will be a unique project for wide receivers coach Shawn Jefferson and offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand.
