The 2025 NFL draft is only three weeks away, and there is little consensus on how it will play out.
The New York Jets hold the seventh overall pick. While still a premium pick, it’s an awkward spot with only a handful of “blue-chip” prospects in this year’s class. However, the Jets can reap massive rewards depending on how things play out.
One of the most controversial prospects in this year’s draft class is quarterback Shedeur Sanders. As the son of Hall of Fame cornerback Deion “Prime Time” Sanders, he’s been under a microscope for years.
Sanders is viewed as the second-best quarterback in this class behind Miami’s Cam Ward. Since the end of the 2024 season, the expectation has been that he will be picked in the top three, likely by the Browns (No. 2) or Giants (No. 3). Each team sent a large contingent to watch him at Colorado’s pro day on Friday.
Recently, however, that consensus has been challenged.
League insider Tony Pauline reported at the start of March that the “earliest” Sanders could be drafted is sixth overall. After that, the Athletic reported that there was a chance that Sanders would slide outside of the first round entirely.
The Sanders slide has cooled since then, and he’s still expected to go in the top 10. However, ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported on Thursday that it is beginning to feel like Sanders could make it out of the top three.
Meanwhile, Ole Miss’ Jaxson Dart has shot up draft boards. He’s widely expected to go in the first round and has generated some buzz as a potential top-10 pick.
The stars are aligning for New York.
If Sanders slides to No. 7 or some team believes enough in Dart, the Jets could get an excellent deal to move back in the draft.
Who would be interested in trading up?
With all trades, it takes two to tango.
While both Sanders and Dart have questions, one of them will likely be picked in the top 10. In the past 10 years, 2022 was the only draft where two quarterbacks were not selected in the top 10, so the odds are high that at least one will be taken early.
So, which teams would be interested in moving up for Sanders?
If he makes it outside of the top five, the Saints, who pick ninth overall, are one of the likeliest destinations. The Saints are the only team picking after the Jets who have officially met with Shedeur Sanders so far.
New Orleans needs a quarterback, as Derek Carr has struggled, and nobody is waiting to replace him.
The difficulty with the Saints is that they are only two spots behind the Jets. With the Carolina Panthers (No. 8) unlikely to replace Bryce Young already, there is little incentive for the Saints to trade up. The only thing that could change that is if another team wants to move up with the Jets.
Who else could potentially move up for Sanders?
The team with the most potential to trade up for a quarterback is the Pittsburgh Steelers, who possess the 21st overall pick. The Steelers have no viable starting quarterback options if Aaron Rodgers spurns them or chooses to retire, and even if Rodgers does join the team, they do not have a long-term solution.
While the Steelers haven’t officially met with Sanders, they have been heavily connected to Dart. If Sanders goes in the top three, then the Steelers could feel pressured to jump the Saints for Dart.
What would this potential trade look like?
Trading back with the New Orleans Saints
To project the potential trade packages, I will be using historical trade-up packages along with the Jimmy Johnson Valuation model.
If the Jets trade back with the Saints, they would only be moving back two spots from seven to nine, so the potential package wouldn’t be too significant. Per the Jimmy Johnson chart, the difference in pick value is 150 points, equivalent to the 88th pick in the draft (late third round).
This falls in line with recent history. In 2021, the Eagles sent the 84th overall pick to Dallas to move up from 12th to 10th for wide receiver DeVonta Smith.
A realistic trade package would look like the following:
Jets receive:
- No. 9 (first round)
- No. 71 (third round)
Saints receive:
- No. 7 (first round)
- 2026 fifth-round pick
The Saints’ early third has some extra value compared to the difference between No. 7 and No. 9, so the Jets tack on a future fifth to even things out.
This would give the Jets four top-75 picks while keeping them in range to land one of the top prospects.
Trading back with the Pittsburgh Steelers
A potential trade back with the Steelers is made slightly more difficult as they lack a second-round pick.
In this scenario, the Jets would be moving back 14 spots, which would give them a much more lucrative package. Per draft pick value, the difference is 700 points, equivalent to the 26th overall pick. It’s a tantalizing opportunity for the Jets, but trades like this have become less common in the NFL.
The last two similar trades were back in 2017 and 2018 when the Kansas City Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills moved up to land quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen.
The Chiefs sent the 27th and 91st picks in the 2017 draft, as well as their 2018 first-round pick, to the Bills in exchange for the 10th overall pick. The 2018 first-round pick became the 27th pick and resulted in the Chiefs giving up 1,496 points, about equal in value to the seventh overall pick.
The Bills made a similarly large trade-up but needed to trade up with another team first. In the end, the Bills gave up the 21st, 53rd, and 56th picks, along with their starting left tackle, Cordy Glenn, to acquire the seventh overall pick and draft Allen. It was a massive overpay per draft value, but the Bills are sleeping soundly next to Allen’s MVP trophy.
Quarterbacks cost a premium in the NFL, and that includes trading up for one. If the Jets are fortunate enough to find themselves in this situation, this is what their potential trade package could look like:
Jets receive:
- No. 21 (first round)
- No. 83 (third round)
- 2026 first-round pick
Steelers receive:
- No. 7 (first round)
This package is very similar to the one the Chiefs sent to land Patrick Mahomes.
Landing a future first-round pick would be a massive boost for the new Jets regime as they look to reshape the roster. The Jets reaped the benefits in 2022 as they landed Garrett Wilson with a first-round pick they acquired from the Seahawks two years earlier.
Darren Mougey has the opportunity to make his mark
The 2025 NFL draft will be general manager Darren Mougey and head coach Aaron Glenn’s first true opportunity to make their stamp in New York. They didn’t spend much in free agency, and all signs point to them focusing on the draft.
Who the Jets will pick at seventh overall is anyone’s guess right now. The Jets could opt to stay put and take one of the quarterbacks we discussed or any of the other top prospects.
However, NFL trades are becoming more common every year, and with the current trajectory of the QB class, the Jets could have an opportunity to strike.
