Like Larry David’s “Curb Your Enthusiasm,” the NFL draft loosely follows a script but is mostly improvised.
Collectively, fans and media members pen the screenplay for each draft, painting a general outline of how the draft should go. Without failure, though, the NFL deviates from the written lines to create a dramatically unpredictable event that draws millions of viewers each year.
Still, the draft tends to adhere somewhat closely to the script. That is why it makes sense to take the temperature of the consensus pulse.
According to NFL Mock Draft Database, these are the top 15 picks of the latest consensus first-round NFL mock draft, comprised of mock drafts published over the week of April 10-16.
- Tennessee Titans: Cam Ward, QB, Miami (96% popularity)
- Cleveland Browns: Travis Hunter, CB, Colorado (75%)
- New York Giants: Abdul Carter, EDGE, Penn State (67%)
- New England Patriots: Will Campbell, OT, LSU (63%)
- Jacksonville Jaguars: Mason Graham, DT, Michigan (74%)
- Las Vegas Raiders: Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State (57%)
- New York Jets: Armand Membou, OT, Missouri (49%)
- Carolina Panthers: Jalon Walker, EDGE, Georgia (56%)
- New Orleans Saints: Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado (42%)
- Chicago Bears: Kelvin Banks, OT, Texas (12%)
- San Francisco 49ers: Will Johnson, CB, Michigan (15%)
- Dallas Cowboys: Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Arizona (38%)
- Miami Dolphins: Malaki Starks, S, Georgia (17%)
- Indianapolis Colts: Colston Loveland, TE, Michigan (35%)
- Atlanta Falcons: Mike Green, EDGE, Marshall (30%)
Browns tip the first domino
Cam Ward has become a shoo-in for Tennessee, meaning the draft really starts at No. 2 with Cleveland.
Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders has long been considered an option for the QB-needy Browns. Now, it is becoming the widely-held belief that Cleveland will pass on Sanders with the second pick. Not only that, but it is becoming similarly accepted that the Giants will also pass on Sanders at No. 3.
With the Browns and Giants passing on Sanders, the son of the legendary quarterback is projected to drop out of the top five. That leaves him available to the moderately QB-interested Raiders and Jets at Nos. 6 and 7, but the consensus is that both teams will pass on Sanders. The Saints – now desperate for a quarterback after the news of Derek Carr’s possible surgery – are projected to end Sanders’ fall two slots later.
Top 8 feeling solidified
The consensus is starting to feel confident about the first quarter of the first round. Each of the top eight slots has a favorite who garners at least 49% of mock draft selections. Within the top five, each favorite has a popularity of at least 60%.
If the script is followed, the first pick that is close to a 50-50 bet is the Raiders at No. 6. Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty remains the majority favorite at 57%, but 43% of mock drafters have them going a different direction.
Some predictors think the Raiders will still take Sanders despite signing Geno Smith to an extension. Others see them bolstering their thin wide receiver unit by reaching on Tetairoa McMillan.
While things are beginning to feel predictable near the top, it only takes one surprising pick to shake up the whole draft. If the Browns or Giants fall in love with Sanders, it will cause a domino effect that alters the rest of the first round.
Jets’ favorite emerging
Missouri right tackle Armand Membou broke out as the Jets’ new consensus favorite after the first wave of free agency. Over a month later, he maintains his spot. About half of prognosticators foresee the mammoth bookend protector becoming the final Infinity Stone in the Jets’ gauntlet of an offensive line.
The porous Jets could go in just about any direction at No. 7. They are an especially difficult team to project due to their first-year head coach and first-year general manager.
However, Membou seems to be prevailing as the consensus favorite because of positional value. Two of his top competitors are Jeanty (who 43% of people believe will make it past the Raiders) and tight end Tyler Warren. While each of these prospects is impressive, and the Jets need help at each position, the tiebreaker goes to the position that most directly influences the quarterback.
We shall see if Darren Mougey adheres to that logic. Nothing of certainty can be said about Mougey’s football philosophies at this point in time. His stance on positional value will be tested as he chooses between premium and non-premium positions with the seventh pick.
