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Old clip gives peek into NY Jets GM Darren Mougey’s philosophy

Darren Mougey, NY Jets, GM, Philosophy
Darren Mougey, New York Jets, Getty Images

What is Darren Mougey‘s philosophy?

At the moment, it is difficult to answer that question about the New York Jets’ new general manager.

Contrary to their new head coach, Aaron Glenn, there is little to be gleaned about the 39-year-old Mougey, who had a cup of coffee as an NFL player before spending 13 seasons hidden behind the scenes in Denver. While we know a lot about Glenn from his many years in the spotlight as a player and coach, Mougey is only now coming to the forefront.

Mougey spoke at length during his introductory press conference on Monday. However, he didn’t say anything that provided a real glimpse into his philosophies as an evaluator. He mostly relied on clichés, such as “our philosophy will be to draft, develop, keep our own.” (In other news, the Earth is the third planet from the Sun.) There were no comments of substance that truly differentiated his team-building views from other general managers.

Combing through Mougey’s history in Denver, there aren’t many quotes or videos that put his unique perspective on record. However, one clip stands out.

A glimpse into Darren Mougey’s philosophy?

In a snippet from a 2021 docuseries episode that highlighted the Broncos’ pre-draft process, Mougey unpacked what he called “one of the more important parts of the evaluation process.”

The Jets’ eventual general manager was referring to the measurables of draft prospects. He proceeds to explain the value of measurables in great detail, providing a rare glimpse into his actual philosophies on player evaluation.

“One of the more important parts of the evaluation process is each player’s measurables. Being height, weight, speed, hand, arm, length, all those things. Each position has a threshold. Kind of a cutoff line. If his speed is below this, he’s probably not going to make it, or we’ll definitely have to downgrade him. Or if his size or length is below this, we’re going to have downgrade him.”

However, Mougey noted that it is unwise to strictly adhere to these guidelines.

“With that being said, you don’t want to weight it too much. Some of these kids have three years, good body of work on film, and they’re good football players. How much do we want to ding them because they’re a tenth of a second slower than another guy? And that may be subjective, but it’s always going to take a role and play a part in it, and have its weight. How much weight that is, I think it depends by player/position.”

Now this is a real piece of insight we can actually sink our teeth into.

What does this tell us about Darren Mougey?

Firstly, Mougey’s emphasis on measurables highlights a potential analytics-based approach. We haven’t heard much about his background in analytics or how much he values them, but his valuation of measurable thresholds is a signal that he might have an approach that leans toward analytics-based thinking. When measurables play a significant role in where you rank a prospect, it means you’re relying on the large data samples accumulated throughout history to point you toward the likeliest option to succeed. This is a mathematical thought process that contrasts with the traditional “eye test.”

Having said this, it was encouraging to hear Mougey acknowledge the flaws in that line of thinking. He highlighted the bizarreness of overlooking multiple years of high-level on-field performance simply due to marginal differences in players’ testing times or measurables. Should a 0.1-second difference in how fast you can run in a straight line in your underwear outweigh hundreds of on-field reps in real games? Should one inch of arm length preclude you from being an NFL tackle when you thrived at the position in college?

This philosophical balance is what stands out the most about Mougey’s comments. He did not come off as a mad scientist who wants to play football on a spreadsheet, nor did he come off as a meathead who thinks numbers are for dorks. Rather, Mougey displayed an impressive understanding of both sides of the player-evaluation coin, which is encouraging for his outlook as a general manager.

Typically, it does not fare well to lean strongly toward either side of the spectrum. Teams with heavily analytical-based approaches have not necessarily reaped the benefits.

The Cleveland Browns are overwhelmingly viewed (per ESPN’s yearly analytics survey) as the most analytically advanced NFL organization in recent years, and it has not gotten them anywhere fast. The Minnesota Vikings have taken a similar approach by hiring GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, a former Wall Street trader with no playing or scouting background, and while they have achieved on-field success, their drafting under Adofo-Mensah has actually been quite poor.

It also doesn’t pay to ignore analytics and rely on a “football guy” mentality. Former Tennessee Titans general manager Jon Robinson openly chastised analytics, while the Titans were often voted as one of the least analytically advanced organizations in football. Robinson’s first few drafts in Tennessee were solid, but his last three drafts (coming at the time when the NFL analytics wave was truly beginning to take over) were awful, causing his firing and burying the Titans in the hole they find themselves in today.

The Washington Commanders used to be a popular vote for the least analytically advanced team in the NFL, corresponding with their longstanding ineptitude. New general manager Adam Peters has fostered improvement in this area. While the Commanders did not receive any votes for being the most analytically advanced in 2024, they also did not receive any votes for being the least advanced, the first time that happened in the five-year history of ESPN’s survey.

One clip from a docuseries four years ago does not definitively reveal Mougey’s entire philosophy. In fact, he may have been echoing the organization’s philosophies rather than his own. We don’t know.

Nonetheless, it was an encouraging 42-second glimpse into how the Jets’ new general manager might view the game. He gave off the impression that he weighs analytics and film equally. If that truly is his team-building philosophy, he will bring a sound decision-making process to the Jets.

How does this compare to Joe Douglas?

In comparison to his predecessor, Joe Douglas, I believe this approach would make Mougey more balanced – with a greater lean toward the analytics side. Douglas seemed to lean toward the “eye test” end of the spectrum to a fault. Many of his worst decisions could have been avoided if he weighed the analytics.

Douglas seemed particularly analytics-averse in free agency. Busted free agent signings like Dalvin Cook, C.J. Uzomah, Allen Lazard, and Javon Kinlaw would not have been made by teams that closely studied those players’ profiles from an analytical perspective. All four were vastly overpaid in comparison to how they performed in the most recent season based on deeper metrics than merely the box score categories. With those signings, Douglas undervalued the cold-hard truth relayed by analytics while overvaluing traits like name recognition (Cook), leadership (Uzomah), and familiarity with the current team (Lazard/Kinlaw).

Meanwhile, when you look at Douglas’ rare hits in free agency, namely D.J. Reed and John Simpson, those players’ successes could have been foretold by analytics. Even if they were not flashy names with gaudy box-score stats, noteworthy accolades, or a high draft pedigree, Reed (great coverage metrics) and Simpson (excellent pressure rates) offered great track records of efficiency in deeper metrics that analyze their respective positions. Perhaps with more signings like these, where he followed the analytics instead of the hype, Douglas would still be in New York.

Douglas showed more analytical influence in the draft, becoming known for often drafting players with a high RAS (Relative Athletic Score). However, he did not seem to value measurables to the extent that Mougey might (if that one 42-second clip from four years ago is an accurate indicator). Douglas took many chances on players who did not fit the prototype mold. The results were both good and bad.

In 2024, Douglas selected Olu Fashanu in the first round despite his incredibly small hand size (8.5 inches). Fashanu seems to be a hit, though, exemplifying the danger in writing off a player with good film simply because he misses a measurable cutoff. On the downside, Douglas selected Malachi Corley in the third round despite his lack of height (typically a warning sign for receivers), and Corley is on bust watch after a dismal rookie season.

Going back to 2021, Douglas used a first-round pick on Alijah Vera-Tucker despite his short arms. Like Fashanu, though, Vera-Tucker has been a hit (when healthy), although his length has contributed to the Jets viewing him as a better fit at guard (less valuable position than tackle). Negatively, though, Douglas took another short receiver in Elijah Moore, and that one was a miss.

Douglas also missed on two fourth-round offensive linemen who fell below certain measurable thresholds. Max Mitchell was an undersized Group-of-5 tackle with underwhelming overall testing (5.52 RAS), while Carter Warren had tiny hands (9.125in hands, 3rd percentile). Neither player can even be viewed as a quality backup in the NFL. In 2020, Douglas blew another fourth-round pick on a player with poor measurables, taking an unathletic running back in La’Mical Perine (5.25 RAS, 4.62 forty).

While he would ignore measurable thresholds fairly often, Douglas still used plenty of early draft picks on players with great measurables, yielding generally positive results, such as Will McDonald, Sauce Gardner, Jermaine Johnson, Breece Hall, Mekhi Becton, and Denzel Mims. It will be interesting to see if Mougey adheres to these cutoffs more strictly than Douglas did, and whether that approach leads to more success.

The key word, though, is balance. Data trends can help you make better-informed decisions that give you a higher chance of success. Ignoring them is flat-out foolish. However, numbers cannot be the only basis for decision-making. The film must still be analyzed intensely. Countless variables are missed if you rely solely on numbers. Additionally, there is a human element to every prospect and player that statistics cannot measure.

A healthy balance between analytics and the eye test is the formula that will lead to the most informed decisions possible.

We still don’t know much about Darren Mougey. But if he lives up to the philosophy he seemed to present in that 2021 interview, he will bring a sound decision-making process to the New York Jets, one that equally weighs all sides of the conversation.

It will take multiple years before we can recognize trends in Mougey’s decision-making. Perhaps he may give us a more detailed description of his thought process when he makes his next appearance in front of the media. For now, we’re left to read way too deeply into the trail of breadcrumbs he left throughout his Denver career. Time will tell if those breadcrumbs led us to an accurate destination: a general manager with a balanced approach to player evaluation.

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