When you follow the NFL draft as either a fan or media member for a long time, they all start to blend together at some point.
Each year, the same narratives and debates prevail. Different faces from different schools rotate in and out, but they’re just different characters playing the same roles in the same movie.
Armand Membou is this year’s Mekhi Becton: the athletic freak tackle who shot up draft boards late.
Will Campbell is this year’s Peter Skoronski: the highly productive technician whose skills are overshadowed by his T. rex arms.
The players’ profiles are much different, but Tyler Warren is this year’s Brock Bowers: the “generational” tight end who transcends positional value to the extent of putting himself in the mix to be a top 10 pick.
We can go on and on. There are only so many archetypes that can be filled, and we have just about seen them all at this point.
While different actors play similar characters each year, the film rarely has the same ending. If the plot were that predictable, the draft would not be as intriguing of an event as it is.
Over decades and decades of history, we, as NFL followers, have attempted to identify trends that can help us create the most accurate draft takes. NFL teams have tried to do the same thing.
Let’s talk about one of the most popularly discussed draft trends – and whether the New York Jets should view it as fact or fiction entering the 2025 NFL draft.
“If a prospect is older, it’s a red flag”
Fact.
Yes, a prospect’s age is vital.
The vast majority of first-round picks are aged 22 and under (using their age on September 1 of their rookie season). Over the past five drafts, 133 of 159 first-round picks were 22 and under (84%). That’s 26 first-round picks aged 23 and up, an average of about five per year.
Teams who buck the trend by reaching on an older prospect typically regret it. The jury is still out on the 2024 class, but among the 15 first-round picks aged 23 and up from 2020-23, the outlook is generally poor:
- 2020, 1st: QB Joe Burrow, Bengals (Hit)
- 2020, 19th: CB Damon Arnette, Raiders (Miss: Out of NFL)
- 2020, 31st: CB Jeff Gladney, Vikings (Miss: Released after one season)
- 2021, 15th: QB Mac Jones, Patriots (Miss: Traded after three years)
- 2021, 24th: RB Najee Harris, Steelers (Miss: Mediocre RB, 3.9 career YPC)
- 2022, 19th: OT Trevor Penning, Saints (Miss: Allowed most pressures among OT in ’24)
- 2022, 20th: QB Kenny Pickett, Steelers (Miss: Traded after two years)
- 2022, 26th: EDGE Jermaine Johnson, Jets (Hit)
- 2022, 27th: LB Devin Lloyd, Jaguars (Hit)
- 2022, 28th: DT Devonte Wyatt, Packers (Miss: 5 starts in 47 career games)
- 2022, 29th: IOL Cole Strange, Patriots (Miss: 57.6 career weighed PFF grade)
- 2023, 7th: EDGE Tyree Wilson, Raiders (Miss: 4 starts in 33 career games)
- 2023, 15th: EDGE Will McDonald, Jets (TBD: 10 sacks in ’24, poor run defense)
- 2023, 18th: LB Jack Campbell, Lions (Hit)
- 2023, 25th: TE Dalton Kincaid, Bills (TBD: 448 yards and 2 TD in ’24)
That’s four hits, two up in the air, and nine picks that teams likely regret. Clearly, younger prospects are prioritized in the first round for good reason.
After the first round, though, age becomes a much less significant factor.
From rounds two through seven over the past five drafts, there were actually more players aged 23 and up chosen than players aged 22 and under. Across the 2020-24 drafts, 522 of 1,132 post-first-round picks were aged 22 and under (46%) compared to 610 aged 23 and up (54%).
As the draft progresses, the prospects selected get increasingly older.
2020-24 drafts: Percentage of picks aged 22 and under (Sep. 1 of rookie year)
- First round: 84%
- Second round: 68%
- Third round: 53%
- Fourth round: 48%
- Fifth round: 51%
- Sixth round: 34%
- Seventh round: 27%
Considering the large drop-off in the 22-and-under rate after the first round, it is clearly a factor that teams intentionally prioritize. They want to use their premium picks on younger players.
Why?
There are a couple of reasons.
First and foremost, a player who breaks out earlier in his college career is likelier to be an NFL standout. If two players enter the league with the same level of performance in their final college season, but one is a junior and the other is a redshirt senior, the junior is clearly the more appealing prospect. The junior is two years behind on the development curve and is already the same caliber of player. His future outlook is much more promising.
It is legitimately concerning if a player did not break out until late in his college career. It raises the question of whether he truly developed his game or if his production spiked simply because he was older, bigger, faster, and more experienced than the teenagers across from him.
When you need to ask the question of why a player didn’t break out earlier, his resume becomes murkier. Everything has an asterisk on it. Meanwhile, a player who stars early in his career is a flat-out special talent with no caveats.
This is something the Jets must think about regarding Penn State tight end Tyler Warren.
In 2024’s first round, New York passed on tight end Brock Bowers despite his obvious instant stardom at Georgia. Bowers had 882 yards and 15 touchdowns as an 18-year-old true freshman and built on it over the next two seasons, entering the league as a 21-year-old with three years of pure dominance.
Compare that to Warren, who combined for 606 yards and 11 touchdowns over his first four years of college. It wasn’t until his redshirt senior season that Warren established himself as a star prospect. He was already 22 years old last season, older than Bowers in his rookie NFL season.
If the Jets didn’t want Bowers at No. 11 last year, how could they justify taking Warren at No. 7 when accounting for the enormous difference in their career trajectories? Warren is often praised for his physical dominance; where was it before he was among the most physically developed players on the field?
Yes, it was a different Jets regime that passed on Bowers (not that it was the wrong decision), but this comparison perfectly encapsulates the importance of age when evaluating prospects.
Another important factor is the long-term contract implications. Down the line, there is a big difference between drafting a 21-year-old and a 23-year-old.
Let’s say we’re talking about the cornerback position, infamous for its lack of longevity.
If you take a 21-year-old cornerback in the second round, he will become a free agent at 25. You can sign him to a three-year extension that takes him through his age-27 season. That’s seven years of football before turning 28.
If you take a 23-year-old cornerback, he will already be 27 when his rookie contract expires. Signing him to a three-year extension takes him through his age-29 season, which is well into the territory where cornerbacks begin showing signs of decline.
Younger is better, plain and simple. It doesn’t mean older prospects should be scraped off the draft board, but it’s a crucial factor.
