There are 257 picks in the 2025 NFL draft.
At the vast majority of those slots, teams cannot prepare ahead for what might happen. They simply rely on their draft board to light the way.
But for the teams near the top of the first round, decision-makers can play a little bit of “what-if” to prepare themselves for specific quandaries. There are fewer and fewer possible scenarios the higher you go on the draft board.
With the New York Jets situated in the No. 7 slot, they can have discussions about what they might do if they board falls one of a few conceivable ways.
Let’s put ourselves in Aaron Glenn and Darren Mougey’s shoes for those discussions. Here is how the Jets should react if presented with one of the following five scenarios.
Scenario 1: The expected top-six
- 1. Titans: QB Cam Ward
- 2. Browns: CB/WR Travis Hunter
- 3. Giants: EDGE Abdul Carter
- 4. Patriots: OT Will Campbell
- 5. Jaguars: DT Mason Graham
- 6. Raiders: RB Ashton Jeanty
We start with a six-pick slate that has become the popularly accepted consensus. This is how it plays out at the top of NFL Mock Draft Database’s consensus mock draft, with each pick having a popularity of at least 46%.
In this situation, the Jets can choose between a bevy of options. Both of their most popularly linked targets, Tyler Warren and Armand Membou, are on the board. Additionally, Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders remains on the board, opening a trade-down possibility.
The most appealing option here is to trade down two spots with the New Orleans Saints, who may want to come up to beat out other teams for Sanders. This would allow the Jets to recoup some draft capital (the equivalent of a mid-third-round pick) without sacrificing either Warren or Membou, as the Panthers (No. 8) are widely expected to take a defensive player.
However, this could easily be a pipe dream. We don’t know if the Saints, or any team, would be interested enough in Sanders to make this move.
If the Jets cannot move down, their best bet is to choose between Membou and Warren. Since tackle is the more valuable position, they would be wise to go with Membou despite their desperation at tight end.
The tight end class is deep, and the Jets can find a starter there on day two. Conversely, they might have a harder time finding an opening-day starter at right tackle if they pass on Membou.
The pick: OT Armand Membou
Scenario 2: Sanders goes in the top three
- 1. Titans: QB Cam Ward
- 2. Browns: QB Shedeur Sanders
- 3. Giants: CB/WR Travis Hunter
- 4. Patriots: EDGE Abdul Carter
- 5. Jaguars: DT Mason Graham
- 6. Raiders: RB Ashton Jeanty
You could swap Sanders between the Giants and Browns here, but the gist of this scenario would be the same.
The concept is that Sanders’ early selection causes the Patriots to bypass selecting a tackle (their expected target) in favor of the irresistible BPA in either Abdul Carter or Travis Hunter. The Jaguars and Raiders stick with their expected picks, and it all results in both Armand Membou and Will Campbell making it to the Jets.
In our previous scenario, we already suggested the Jets should select Membou over Warren due to positional value, so the only question here is whether the Jets should take Campbell over Membou.
It is a tough call. Membou’s advantages are that he has experience at right tackle and has sufficient arm length for the position. The Jets would not have to worry about training the prospect at a new alignment or whether he can overcome a physical deficiency that usually rules players out from lasting at tackle.
However, Campbell is arguably the better overall prospect. The pair is similar in terms of athletic upside, while Campbell has the more appealing on-field pedigree.
Membou has undergone a late rise up the draft board following his superb combine, but Campbell had a fantastic showing in his own right (only to be overshadowed by his arms). Campbell’s 9.91 Relative Athletic Score is essentially identical to Membou’s 9.90.
On the field, Campbell has long been destined for NFL success. He was a five-star recruit and won LSU’s starting left tackle job as an 18-year-old true freshman. Across three seasons as the Tigers’ left tackle, he allowed just four sacks on 1,594 pass-blocking snaps against high-level competition in the SEC.
It is a close call, but the Jets would be wise to avoid overthinking it and take Campbell. He is essentially equal to Membou athletically and has a gold-standard resume for a college tackle prospect.
The arm length is concerning, but it is a surmountable obstacle if the player is talented enough, which Campbell seems to be. As for the positional transition, he would have a full offseason to acclimate to the right side, so it shouldn’t be a huge deal.
The pick: OT Will Campbell
Scenario 3: Both tackles gone
- 1. Titans: QB Cam Ward
- 2. Browns: EDGE Abdul Carter
- 3. Giants: CB/WR Travis Hunter
- 4. Patriots: OT Will Campbell
- 5. Jaguars: OT Armand Membou
- 6. Raiders: RB Ashton Jeanty
In this scenario, things go as expected outside of the Jaguars, who opt to protect Trevor Lawrence instead of beefing up their defensive line with Mason Graham. That leaves the Jets without the option to take one of the top two tackles.
Now, Graham enters the conversation. Warren remains at the forefront, while the Jets could also dip into the defensive end pool. The Sanders trade-down is on the table, although, once again, we do not know how feasible that is.
The “BPA” is a toss-up between Graham and Warren, but Graham takes the positional value advantage. That would seemingly make him the obvious choice.
However, there are concerns about Graham’s fit alongside Quinnen Williams, considering he is a sub-300-pounder who projects as a 3-technique in the NFL. When Graham plays with Williams in a base alignment, it is likely Williams who would have to kick inside to the 1-technique spot, which would diminish his pass-rush upside and thus his overall value. Do the Jets want to miscast one of their best players to squeeze in an unproven rookie?
The Jets could also take one of the two edge rushers from Georgia, Jalon Walker or Mykel Williams. Edge is the most valuable position of the three in consideration, but Walker and Williams have lower floors as prospects than Graham or Warren. The latter two were already dominant college players, while Walker and Williams will be drafted early because of potential rather than production.
This is an extremely close call, and it comes down to the Jets’ philosophies regarding multiple variables. Can they get enough value out of a tight end to justify him as the seventh overall pick? If yes, their gaping need at the position should prompt them to take Warren.
If no, the next option in line is Graham. Defensive tackle is a valuable position, and the Jets have a large need there. Do the Jets think he and Williams can play together? If yes, take Graham.
If no, they should take one of the Georgia edge rushers. It is a premium position, and the Jets’ need is more dire than many fans are willing to admit. Walker and Williams are on the riskier side for a No. 7 pick, but the upside and positional value might justify the investment.
Between Walker and Williams, Walker proved more in college while still having similar athletic upside. Walker (6.5) actually had more sacks than Williams (5.0) in 2024 despite only rushing the passer on a part-time basis, while the latter was a full-time defensive end.
Walker is a versatile player who can fill both on- and off-ball roles for the Jets’ defense. That would be useful in a defensive scheme that will likely prioritize versatility in the front-seven under Aaron Glenn and Steve Wilks. Additionally, his pass-rush ceiling is superb, considering he racked up 6.5 sacks and 34 total pressures as a part-time pass rusher in 2024 (just 195 pass-rush snaps).
For perspective, Walker’s 3.6% sack rate was nearly equal to Abdul Carter’s 3.7%.
As much as the Jets need a tight end, it is difficult to justify taking one seventh overall in favor of similarly rated prospects on the offensive and defensive lines. That rules out Warren, but we shall see if the Jets feel similarly about the position’s value. As for Graham, I’m not sure the scheme fit is there.
Using conventional team-building logic and avoiding desperation to fill holes, the process of elimination leads us to Jalon Walker.
Another wild card to consider is Texas offensive tackle Kelvin Banks. Currently ranked No. 13 overall on the consensus big board, he is a realistic option if the Jets desperately want to fill the right tackle spot. New York may also have him rated higher than most teams if he fits their particular archetype.
However, provided that the Jets view Banks similarly to the consensus, it is difficult to picture Mougey reaching to fill a need in his debut draft. He is aiming to build with a long-term vision, so he will make the best selection for the team’s long-term outlook with less regard for immediate needs.
The pick: EDGE Jalon Walker
Scenario 4: Jeanty enters the conversation
- 1. Titans: QB Cam Ward
- 2. Browns: EDGE Abdul Carter
- 3. Giants: CB/WR Travis Hunter
- 4. Patriots: OT Will Campbell
- 5. Jaguars: OT Armand Membou
- 6. Raiders: DT Mason Graham
The only difference between this scenario and the last is that the Raiders select Graham instead of Ashton Jeanty. That leaves the Jets with an enticing opportunity.
We already had the Jets landing on Jalon Walker over Graham, so it’s not Graham’s absence that makes this an interesting scenario. It is the addition of Jeanty.
Relative to position, Jeanty might be the best prospect in this draft. A few weeks back, we discussed the reasons why New York might seriously consider drafting him if he is available with the seventh overall pick.
With Carter, Hunter, Campbell, Membou, and Graham off the board, it seems very likely that Jeanty would be the Jets’ BPA by a wide margin in this situation. If they believe in the value that he can provide in their offense, and they aren’t high on Breece Hall (who this regime did not draft)… should we rule out the possibility that Darren Mougey would take Jeanty here?
We don’t know anything about Mougey’s philosophies yet, so I would say the answer is no, we should not rule out New York taking Jeanty here.
With that being said, it would be questionable at best to take a running back with the seventh overall pick as a first-year general manager inheriting a five-win team. Even if it were 1963 Jim Brown stepping through a time machine, it would be an iffy allocation of resources.
While I cannot rule it out, I do not think Mougey would be willing to go with Jeanty here. With Graham gone, that brings us back to Warren versus Walker, and I think Mougey will lean toward the more valuable position.
The pick: EDGE Jalon Walker
Scenario 5: No Walker, no tackles
- 1. Titans: QB Cam Ward
- 2. Browns: EDGE Abdul Carter
- 3. Giants: CB/WR Travis Hunter
- 4. Patriots: OT Will Campbell
- 5. Jaguars: OT Armand Membou
- 6. Panthers: EDGE Jalon Walker
Jalon Walker is an extremely popular mock draft choice for the Panthers, who desperately need defensive help after allowing a league-high 31.4 points per game.
According to NFL Mock Draft Database, 70% of mock drafts have Walker going to Carolina at No. 8. It is the highest rate for a single prospect at a single slot outside of the top four.
However, Walker-to-New York is gaining steam. ESPN’s draft predictor named Walker the likeliest selection for the Jets at No. 7, while beat reporter Rich Cimini called Walker “a guy to watch” for New York. The Ringer’s Todd McShay mocked Walker to the Jets at No. 7 and reported that he’s heard the Jets will lean toward defense at No. 7.
If there is smoke to this fire, the Panthers may look to jump the Jets for Walker. In this scenario, they make a trade with Las Vegas to secure the sixth pick and take Walker before he can get to New York. Meanwhile, the top five goes the same as it did in the previous scenario, with both tackles being selected.
That leaves the Jets between Graham, Warren, Jeanty, or a wild-card defender like Williams.
As we discussed in the last section, Jeanty seems too ambitious for the Jets in this spot, so it would be realistic to rule him out.
Williams has appealing upside, but after recording just 26 total pressures and five sacks in 12 games last season, he is quite the project. His floor is too low for him to be considered on par with Graham and Warren as prospects.
While the Jets’ new regime would love to hit a home run with their first pick, they cannot afford to completely whiff on it, so they will assuredly be placing a premium on prospects’ floors. It would be dangerous to take someone who did not dominate in college over multiple players who did.
That leaves us with Graham versus Warren.
Conventional wisdom regarding positional value would say to take the defensive tackle over the tight end. However, the Jets’ particular situation evens the score.
Graham’s value could be diminished due to his fit with Williams. Since Williams will be a Jet for a long haul, Graham’s fit beside him is an essential factor to consider. This is not an instance of overvaluing short-term fit.
Meanwhile, the Jets have an offensive coordinator who projects to rely heavily on the tight end position. Tanner Engstrand was the passing game coordinator for a Detroit team that loved to utilize multi-TE sets. The Lions featured their TEs not only in the passing concepts, but in their blocking schemes as well. The Jets project to draw more value from their tight ends than the average NFL team as long as Engstrand is in town.
Not to mention, with the Jets having zero reliable receiving weapons outside of Garrett Wilson, the Jets have a vacancy for their No. 2 target in the pass game. Warren can fill that role. His potential value as a pass catcher would not be diminished by the presence of players already on the roster who would eat into his target volume. Over the course of his rookie contract, Warren could generate as much or more receiving production than many wide receivers taken in this part of the draft.
For these reasons, it seems fair to think the Jets would take Warren over Graham if these were their top two options.
The pick: TE Tyler Warren
Summary
- If top-six goes as expected: OT Armand Membou
- If Membou and Campbell are available: OT Will Campbell
- If neither Membou nor Campbell is available, Raiders take Jeanty over Graham: EDGE Jalon Walker
- If neither Membou nor Campbell is available, Raiders take Graham over Jeanty: EDGE Jalon Walker
- If Membou, Campbell, and Walker are all unavailable: TE Tyler Warren
Takeaways
As I narrowed down the Jets’ potential thought process throughout this exercise, I came away feeling less inclined to believe that they will take Warren than I did previously. While the idea sounds appealing in a vacuum, it becomes less clear-cut when weighing it against more premium positions.
It cannot be overlooked how ambitious it is to take a tight end with the seventh pick. For as much flak as we like to throw at the concept of drafting running backs early, it is even less common for tight ends to go in the top 10. Due to its nature as a non-essential position that can be minimized or worked around, it just isn’t as vital as positions like offensive tackle and edge rusher, which no team can live without.
We don’t know anything about Mougey and Glenn’s draft philosophies yet, but coming from backgrounds under Sean Payton and Dan Campbell, I tend to believe their philosophies on positional value will fit the modern zeitgeist. They should know that the offensive and defensive lines are the top priorities in team-building.
If either Membou or Campbell is on the board, it feels like a good bet the Jets will take one of them. If they are both gone, do not be surprised if the Jets skip over Warren and turn their attention to the defensive front. Perhaps that could mean taking Graham, although, as we discussed today, Walker arguably makes more sense for multiple reasons.
Unless the Jets’ first-year decision-makers are prepared to go against conventional wisdom with their first draft pick, it is hard to imagine them taking Warren at No. 7 unless all of their favorite options at tackle and edge are off the board. It would not be shocking at all if they took Warren, but it would most definitely be a statement.
Who knows? Maybe the Jets are more than ready to go against conventional wisdom. We’ll have to watch the draft to find that out. Tomorrow, we can finally do just that, and stop dedicating so much of our time to these hypotheticals.
The hypotheticals are not a total waste of time, though. Looking back on pre-draft opinions in the future is always a hoot. Ah, remember when I meticulously analyzed Joe Douglas’ multi-year drafting tendencies to identify “his guys,” only to go 0-for-9 on predicting his 2022 draft class? (With a much worse crop of players than the class Douglas actually drafted?) Of course you don’t, because all of this will be forgotten in a few days.
That is, until we look back on this article in three years to make fun of how silly I was to say the Jets should take so-and-so over what’s-his-name.
One more day!
