Predicting the New York Jets’ 2022 draft class based on Joe Douglas’ tendencies
Over the past week-plus, we’ve run through an exuberant amount of information regarding the drafting tendencies of New York Jets general manager Joe Douglas.
All breakdowns on Joe Douglas’ drafting tendencies:
- Analyzing Douglas’ valuation of a prospect’s Relative Athletic Score (RAS)
- List of prospects Douglas might avoid based on RAS
- List of prospects Douglas might favor based on RAS
- Analyzing Douglas’ valuation of a prospect’s age
- Analyzing Douglas’ tendency to draft team captains
- List of “Joe Douglas guys” who perfectly match Douglas’ preferences
- List of prospects who have a profile that suggests Douglas will avoid them
- Analyzing Douglas’ valuation of collegiate production versus untapped potential
It’s time to put all of that knowledge to good use in the form of a predictive mock draft.
Let’s don our Joe Douglas caps and predict all nine Jets draft picks with Douglas’ tendencies in mind.
The Jet X Offseason Simulator was used for this mock.
Round 1, Pick 4: Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE, Oregon
Douglas has shown a strong preference for drafting elite athletes in the early stages of the draft. Outside of Zach Wilson (who did not complete pre-draft testing), Douglas’ other four selections in rounds 1-2 combined for an average Relative Athletic Score (RAS) of 9.53 out of 10.
Thibodeaux has the requisite athleticism to be an early Douglas pick with his 9.63 RAS. The Oregon product lit up the combine with a 4.58 forty time at 6-foot-4 and 254 pounds while also leading his position group with 27 reps on the bench press.
Douglas doesn’t just want to see athletic potential from his high draft picks. In 2021, he also strongly leaned toward players who offered a track record of dominant production in college. The Jets’ 2021 draft picks combined for an average PFF grade of 80.0 in their final college season, ranking fifth-highest out of 32 teams.
Thibodeaux has the dominant production to back up his tantalizing athleticism. His 23.2% pass-rush win rate in 2021 ranked sixth-best out of 133 qualified Power-5 edge rushers. PFF scored him with an 83.2 overall grade in 2021.
If Thibodeaux does not make it to the fourth slot, the next-best option who most closely matches these trends would probably be Cincinnati cornerback Sauce Gardner.
Gardner boasts arguably the best production of any player in the draft regardless of position. Athletically, he didn’t participate in enough drills to qualify for a RAS, but he recorded a 4.41 forty time that stands as the best ever for a cornerback with his height and length.
Due to the Jets’ greater need at the EDGE position compared to cornerback, Thibodeaux wins the tiebreaker over Gardner as the prototype Douglas pick at four. But if Thibodeaux is off the board and Gardner remains there, I believe Gardner would be the Jets’ most likely pick.
Georgia EDGE Travon Walker fits Douglas’ athleticism preference with his historic 9.99 RAS but I’m not sure he was productive enough in college for Douglas to feel comfortable with him at four. Walker had a measly 70.8 PFF grade last season to go with his below-average 10.1% win rate that pales in comparison to other top EDGE prospects.
I don’t think there’s any chance he reaches the fourth slot, but Michigan’s Aidan Hutchinson is easily the best match for Douglas in the entire draft. He checks every box and would be the no-doubt pick if he somehow tumbles to the fourth pick.
Round 1, Pick 10: Drake London, WR, USC
This is a tough one to project. I think the Jets will take a wide receiver here, but of the draft’s consensus top-four receiver prospects – Drake London (USC), Garrett Wilson (Ohio State), Jameson Williams (Alabama), and Chris Olave (Ohio State) – none is a perfect match for Douglas. Each player fails to check at least one box that Douglas has tended to look for.
With all of that said, I think London is the closest match.
If Douglas continues to search for superstar producers as he did in 2021, London is as good as it gets in that category. His 91.3 overall PFF grade in 2021 is well ahead of Wilson (84.1), Williams (81.6), and Olave (79.7). London ranked second in the nation and first among Power-5 players with 135.5 receiving yards per game in 2021.
Additionally, London boasts a “breakout age” of 18.1 years old. For wide receivers, this statistic tells us a player’s age at the beginning of his first college season in which he produced at least 20% of his team’s receiving yards (in games that he played).
Breakout age is typically a strong predictor of future success for a wide receiver. London’s breakout age of 18.1 ranks at the 100th percentile all-time and significantly beats out Olave (19.2, 86th percentile), Wilson (20.1, 59th), and Williams (20.4, 51st percentile).
London was also a team captain at USC, which is a trait that Douglas tends to value. Olave was a captain but Williams and Wilson were not.
The knock on London is his athleticism. He did not test this offseason as he recovered from an ankle injury, but based on his tape, it seems likely that his RAS would not have been amazing. His top speed appears lackluster.
However, London’s competitors didn’t light the world on fire in this department either.
Wilson posted a mediocre RAS of 7.77, which is barely above the 2020-21 league average for all draft picks (7.55) and not at the level Douglas has looked for his early-round picks. Olave posted a solid 8.69 RAS but that’s still not quite at Douglas’ typical first-round level (Mekhi Becton and Alijah Vera-Tucker had RAS scores of 9.85 and 9.80).
Williams, a mesmerizing speedster on the field, probably would have posted an incredible RAS but could not test since he is still recovering from an ACL injury.
Still only 20 years old and not set to turn 21 until July, London is also the youngest of these four prospects and is one of the youngest prospects in the entire draft. While Douglas has not leaned extremely heavily toward younger prospects, he has shown a slight lean in that direction, particularly with his early picks.
London’s production, team captain status, and age make him the most likely wide receiver to be selected by New York in my opinion.
Round 2, Pick 35: Travis Jones, DT, Connecticut
UConn defensive tackle Travis Jones checks a lot of boxes for the Jets. He’s got a 9.40 RAS, was a team captain for the Huskies, and played under the Jets’ coaching staff with the National Team at the Senior Bowl.
Jones is one of the best two-way defensive tackle prospects in the draft, offering potential as both a run defender and pass rusher. In 2021, he ranked at the 98th percentile among qualified FBS defensive tackles with an 86.8 PFF run-defense grade while also placing at the 92nd percentile with a 78.8 pass-rush grade.
This dual-threat capability makes him a great fit for the Jets.
New York needs a good run defender to recuperate from the loss of Foley Fatukasi, but in Robert Saleh and Jeff Ulbrich‘s aggressive 4-3 defense, everybody must be able to explode off the ball, shoot gaps, and provide some pass-rush pop. There’s no room for sluggish space-eaters just for the sake of run-stuffing.
Jones can play in the middle of the Jets’ defensive line and provide the run defense that they need without sacrificing athleticism or pass-rushing ability. He ran a 4.92 in the forty-yard dash at 325 pounds.
Round 2, Pick 38: Jaquan Brisker, S, Penn State
Jaquan Brisker is another “Joe Douglas guy”, boasting a 9.14 RAS in addition to his team captain status at Penn State. Like Jones, he also played under the Jets’ coaching staff at the Senior Bowl.
Brisker has the size (6-foot-1, 199 pounds), speed (4.49 forty), and strength (22 bench reps) to handle a multitude of roles at the safety position, which makes him a great fit for a Jets defense that asks for versatility out of its two safeties rather than tethering them to distinct roles.
Allowing a 46.8 passer rating on throws into his coverage last season (98th percentile among safeties), Brisker offers a track record of elite coverage production in college.
Round 3, Pick 69: Abraham Lucas, OT, Washington State
Through his first two drafts, Douglas’ high standard for athleticism carried all the way into the third round. We have yet to see him draft a player with a RAS below 8.68 prior to the fourth round. I’d expect that trend to continue in a 2022 draft that is absolutely loaded with fantastic athletes.
The Jets need depth and long-term security at the offensive tackle position. I think they’ll address the need fairly early, although not in the first round. Here, I have them filling the hole with another top-end athlete in Washington State’s Abraham Lucas.
Lucas boasts a 9.73 RAS on the strength of his 5.00 forty time at 6-foot-6 and 315 pounds. He also shined in the three-cone with a time of 7.25 (98th percentile all-time among offensive linemen), which is notable for the Jets since the three-cone is typically a valued drill for offensive linemen in a zone-blocking scheme.
Lucas must improve in the run game but he was outstanding as a pass-blocker in 2021, giving up only nine pressures all year. His 1.89% allowed pressure rate ranked at the 98th percentile among Power-5 offensive tackles and even beat out first-round prospects like Evan Neal and Ikem Ekwonu.
Round 4, Pick 111: Mario Goodrich, CB, Clemson
Now that we’ve arrived on day three of the draft, we can expect Douglas to start taking chances on players who don’t have noteworthy athleticism. His 2020-21 picks from rounds four through seven had an average RAS of 6.69, including seven players with a RAS below the league average of 7.55 and only three players with a RAS of 8.0+.
However, if Douglas is going to gamble on a lesser athlete during the draft’s third day, that player likely needs to have a remarkable off-the-field reputation through their status as a team captain. Of Douglas’ seven draft picks with a RAS below 7.55, six of them were team captains.
Mario Goodrich was a very productive cornerback at Clemson who only allowed a 49.0 passer rating into his coverage in 2021, coughing up zero touchdowns and snagging two interceptions. He’ll drop due to his 5.03 RAS, but as a team captain for the Tigers, he’s the type of guy Douglas will welcome into the locker room.
Goodrich comes from a zone-heavy defensive scheme at Clemson, matching the preference that Douglas showed through his signing of Seattle Seahawks cornerback D.J. Reed in free agency. Reed was one of the NFL’s most zone-heavy cornerbacks in 2021.
Round 4, Pick 117: Kyren Williams, RB, Notre Dame
Kyren Williams is another player who checks Douglas’ day-three boxes. His woeful 3.48 RAS will send him tumbling down the board but he was a team captain at Notre Dame and had an extremely productive college career.
Williams racked up 2,799 yards and 31 touchdowns from scrimmage over the past two seasons. Most notably, he offers excellent passing-game potential in the NFL. Williams ranked eighth among FBS running backs with 42 receptions in 2021 and is known for his impressive skills as a pass-blocker.
The Jets’ running backs struggled mightily with drops and pass-blocking in 2021, so Williams addresses New York’s specific needs at the position.
Round 5, Pick 146: Thayer Munford, IOL, Ohio State
Ohio State offensive lineman Thayer Munford had a subpar RAS of 6.73 but checks a lot of boxes that Douglas will love in a day-three offensive line pick. Munford was a team captain and offers positional versatility, having played right tackle, left tackle, and left guard in his five-year Buckeyes career.
One consistent trait that we have seen Douglas value in his offensive line additions (both in the draft and free agency) is the ability to limit penalties. Douglas loves to add linemen with low penalty counts. Munford checks that box, being called for only two flags across 1,216 snaps from 2020 to 2021.
Munford is no slam-dunk to succeed in the NFL after a down 2021 season (mediocre PFF pass-blocking grade of 66.3) despite his advantage as a fifth-year player. He simply gives the Jets’ offensive line a versatile developmental piece that can hopefully develop into a useful backup.
Round 5, Pick 163: J.T. Woods, S, Baylor
Douglas closed out his 2021 draft by gambling on a high-RAS defensive player in Jonathan Marshall, so we’ll do the same thing here after going for a trio of less athletic prospects.
The owner of a 9.43 RAS, Baylor safety J.T. Woods gives another injection of youth to one of the Jets’ most deprived positions.
Woods is a lanky safety at 6-foot-2 and only 195 pounds but is super athletic with a 4.36 forty time and a 40-inch vertical. He’s a project, as he is still only 21 years old and was relatively unproductive in college (mediocre PFF grade of 67.3 in 2021, had a very bad career missed tackle rate of 20.1%).
Here’s my final prediction for the Jets’ 2022 draft class:
- Round 1, Pick 4: Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE, Oregon
- Round 1, Pick 10: Drake London, WR, USC
- Round 2, Pick 35: Travis Jones, DT, Connecticut
- Round 2, Pick 38: Jaquan Brisker, S, Penn State
- Round 3, Pick 69: Abraham Lucas, OT, Washington State
- Round 4, Pick 111: Mario Goodrich, CB, Clemson
- Round 4, Pick 117: Kyren Williams, RB, Notre Dame
- Round 5, Pick 146: Thayer Munford, IOL, Ohio State
- Round 5, Pick 163: J.T. Woods, S, Baylor
Audio Version available to members only: Learn more here
I get the premise of this mock draft, but perhaps I’m the only one who thinks the desire for CBs as a top need is overstated. Certainly not in the first three rounds. Their young CBs showed good improvement throughout the season and got a good addition in FA. Focus on the line (i.e pass rushers and against the run) and add a Safety and LB. Otherwise, spend the premium picks on Offense.
I foresee a trade down from either 4 or 10. I think we’re going to see a qb needy team try to make a move and JD will fleece them (I hope).
If Philly has thier heart set on someone early, I wouldn’t mind trading pick #4 for Phillies 15 and 18 giving us 3 1st rounders. Even moreso if we trade for Deebo Samuel and it cost both 2nd rounders.
Cap shouldn’t be an issue for the next 3-4 years, so paying in picks and $$ for a proven wideout is more prudent than taking a chance with #10 in the draft.
If you include Samuel as part of the “draft” giving up the 2nd rounders a trade that gives us 10 15 18 plus Samuel I would argue gives us more capital with the WR position set.
Well stated as always. Can’t disagree with the numbers just feel like maybe a stout defense would be more helpful to Wilson than adding a rookie WR. I’d like to see them figure out a way to get a top EDGE guy and a top CB if that’s even possible.
Improving the defense would allow them to establish a real running game which would make things easier on the QB because he’s not always trying to win a shootout. Id argue every throw Wilson doesn’t make actually benefits him. He’ll develop better by throwing less than more if he can throw when he wants to, not when he has to.
Good points. I do think we’ll see an emphasis on defense with their 5 picks from rounds 1-3 this year. Douglas has yet to draft a defensive player prior to round 3 and didn’t draft one until round 4 last year. An influx of young talent on that side of the ball is badly needed.
The top 10 is about five positions, QB, T, WR, Edge and CB. Obviously, just because they are top 10 picks doesn’t mean they’ll work out but it’s JDs job to get it right. I think it’s fair to say that the quickest way to improve a defense is by adding a shutdown CB and impact EDGE rusher and here we are with two picks in the top 10. They have to be the right guys but if you do well here you significantly change and improve the defense.
I’m sorry to be so negative on the QB but if we are being honest about what we saw last year the chances that Wilson is even serviceable is 50/50 at this point. I can’t think of any QB in my 51 years of watching the NFL who was as bad as Wilson and then became a Pro Bowler. Maybe you can? Id love to be wrong. But I would not double down trying to save him by drafting another WR if I could significantly improve my defense and limit what I need from the QB position, with him, at this time.
The number of QBs who had a similarly bad rookie year and went on to succeed is definitely small, but there are examples… Josh Allen, Eli Manning, and Alex Smith all had worse passer ratings vs. league average in their rookie years. Matt Stafford, Troy Aikman, and John Elway were only marginally better. So it can happen.
I get what you’re saying about the chances of him succeeding being low – you’re definitely right about that – but they have to at least try to do everything they can to help him land on the right side of that chance. They just drafted him last year and all of their jobs are tied to him, so they’re going to support him to the best of their ability. Can’t just write off him after one rookie year especially considering he showed improvement down the stretch.
Michael… None of them was as incompetent as Wilson. His terrible footwork and fundamentals speak to a lack of effort or interest in doing the necessary work IMO. And his poor throwing mechanics are a direct result of his footwork. Always late getting to where he needs to be and then always rushing to try to catch up with the play.
While I would normally agree with you about the GM and coach being tied to Wilson I’m not so sure about that with the Jets because the real problem with the organization is ownership and their ineptitude. If I was JD and Salah, both of who I like and respect, I’d save myself with my defense and running game just the way SF does. They also have big QB issues that they cover up with superior defense and game planning.
Thank you, by the way, for responding and interacting, I really appreciate that because you are a very good football guy and I respect what you have to say. I just want to win too but I see no way we do that with Wilson. For me, he’s JaMarcus Russell. I was shocked and appalled by what I saw with him last year. Maybe he does a 180?? Love to know what you think the possibility of that is.
Thank you for the great chat!
No problem! Hey, we’re all hoping for the same thing: just to win some ball games. Let’s see what Zach can do this year. I 100% hear your concerns, I think they’re very much legitimate, but we’ll have to give him at least this year before we can start to truly judge him. Thought he showed some good progress down the stretch and I’m looking forward to seeing if he can build on it. I feel like he has special traits to work with in terms of his arm strength and mobility that give him a high ceiling. But of course, the floor is low if he cannot correct the issues he showed last year, which you mentioned. Has to tighten up the footwork and overall mechanics. We’ll see if he can maintain the improved ball security, processing speed, and short accuracy he showed across his final games last year.
A- I love that you can debate and be friends. You can be sure I’m your friend and a loyal follower too. This is the best Jets site by far, you guys do a great job.
B- I’m generally positive despite being a Jet Met and Ranger fan. I don’t remember SB III I was 4, but I do remember Joe Willie at the end. We Jet fans deserve better. At least we have you guys. Thanks for keeping it fun!
Terry Bradshaw was atrocious in his rookie year. After being the #1 overall pick out of Louisiana Backwater University, many people were expecting him to fail miserably. He spent a few of his early years fighting off Terry Hanratty for the starting job.
Then, like magic, BANG! …four rings and a gold jacket.
Given the past two drafts would you agree that it is likely that we will see trade-backs to acquire more picks? If so should we expect trade-backs to be made in rounds 3-5?
Douglas definitely seems like he prefers trading down versus up, so I think we’ll probably see at least one move down the board, especially considering this is a draft class that is better known for its depth than its top-end talent. I feel like they’ll try to move down from one of their top-10 picks but we’ll see if they can actually find a team who wants to go up. Will come down to whether a team gets desperate for a QB, I think.
Could also see them try to add 2023 picks considering that class is perceived to have better talent (as the Eagles did in their trade with the Saints recently).
With no picks in rounds 6 or 7, I’d probably expect a day three move to add some extra selections. Douglas made that type of move at least once in each of the past two drafts
Hey Michael, for the WR debate, do you think Olave and Wilsons PFF grade takes a hit because they played together? My thinking is they could have been more productive if not having to share the ball?
In terms of that particular stat I would say that they did not take a hit from playing together, since PFF grades are largely efficiency-based rather than volume-based. For example, Jaxon Smith-Njigba (the other star WR in OSU’s offense) had a 91.7 grade with pretty much the same volume of targets per game as both of them. For a receiver, the PFF grade more shows how the player responds when called upon than it shows how frequently they produce.
Of course, their receiving yardage/reception/touchdown totals are hurt by having to compete agianst so much talent – there are only so many throws to go around – but in terms of PFF grade, playing with a lot of great players doesn’t hurt since the grade is mostly based on what the player does when he gets a chance.
I think Wilson was mainly held back by his 7.9% drop rate. Olave didn’t break many tackles, so that’s part of why he couldn’t get over the top with a stellar grade.
Michael – What are you doing at LB? Are you good with the current depth chart? I would have thought Mosley’s eventual replacement is found in Round 2 vs. the PSU safety…
That’s probably the main downside of this draft. I think they could definitely address LB at some point but here I didn’t find a point where a LB was the best (or most likely based on JD’s trends) option available. Considered Chad Muma in R2 but just liked Jones/Brisker more.
I do think there’s a chance that they don’t invest an early pick in a LB. They did just draft two developmental players at the position last year and seem to likely Quincy quite a bit. Saleh and Ulbrich are LB guys, so I can see them having confidence in their ability to develop the players they already have.
But I agree, LB is definitely a need and I would like to see it addressed fairly early
I assume Troy Anderson was gone by 69?
I believe he was gone by 69 when I did this mock, yes. I think he’d be a great target for them, checks a lot of boxes.