It’s been 27 years since the New York Jets last fielded a team that was truly elite.
The 1998 squad, led by head coach Bill Parcells, won 12 games while finishing top-five in both points and points allowed. They outscored opponents by nearly 10 points per game (26.0 to 16.6).
In terms of Pro Football Reference’s Simple Rating System metric, which adjusts point differential for strength of schedule, the Jets were the second-best team in the NFL that season – and the best in the AFC. Only the Minnesota Vikings fared better in the metric.
New York earned a first-round bye, and after defeating the Jacksonville Jaguars in the divisional round, the Jets earned a trip to Colorado, where they would battle John Elway and the Denver Broncos in the AFC championship game.
The Jets took a 10-0 lead early in the third quarter, but Denver would score the next 23 points on their way to the Super Bowl, where they’d defeat the Atlanta Falcons. It was a heartbreaking end to what remains the Jets’ best shot at a Super Bowl title since their lone victorious season in 1968.
The 1998 team is easily the second-best in Jets history. Their 12-4 regular season record ranks second in franchise history behind the championship-winning 1968 team (11-3), while their average point differential of +9.4 also ranks second to only the 1968 squad (+9.9).
Here’s the scary part (albeit frustrating for Jets fans who witnessed the 1998 team). Those numbers, as strong as they are, vastly underrate how great that team really was at its peak.
New York’s original starting quarterback was Glenn Foley. In three games started by Foley – including Weeks 1-2 and a Week 6 start after returning from injury – the Jets went 0-3 and were outscored by 30 points.
With Vinny Testaverde under center, the 1998 Jets had a 12-1 record. Even more impressively, their average point differential was +14.6.
To put into perspective how dominant that is, it’s over five points better than the 2024 Eagles team that just cruised its way to a Super Bowl (+9.4). It’s also more than a full point better than the 2024 Lions team that went 15-2 and led the league with a +13.1. Heck, it’s nearly as good as the undefeated 1972 Dolphins team (+15.3).
Yeah, the Vinny-led 1998 Jets were that good at football.
One cannot help but wonder… What if Vinny started all 16 games?
Because of their three losses with Foley, the Jets had to play the AFC championship in Denver, where the Broncos went 10-0 across the regular season and playoffs.
Denver was spared from having to play in New Jersey, where the Jets went 8-0 with a +19.6 point differential with Testaverde under center. The Jets won by double digits in all but one of Vinny’s starts at Giants Stadium. They outscored their opponents 239-85.
In a matchup of two elite teams who were great on the road but unbeatable at home, it is fair to say that home-field decided the game.
That brings us to the premise of this article. If Testaverde started all 16 games in 1998, could the Jets have earned home-field advantage in the AFC and made it to the Super Bowl?
Using the simulator at What If Sports, we can have some fun with that question.
Re-simulating the Jets’ 1998 season
What If Sports allows us to simulate a game between any two NFL teams from any season in history. So, we can replay the exact matchups on the Jets’ 1998 schedule that cost them home-field in the AFC championship game.
I won’t keep you around for a re-simulation of the Jets’ entire 1998 season, so, for the sake of this exercise, we will assume the Jets’ 12-1 record in Testaverde’s starts would hold. What we are going to do is re-simulate the three games that were started by Foley, with Testaverde inserted as the starting quarterback instead.
- Week 1 at San Francisco
- Week 2 vs. Baltimore
- Week 6 at St. Louis
From there, we will see if the Jets’ results are enough to push them over Denver in the AFC standings. If so, we will re-simulate the AFC championship game, but in New Jersey.
I do not want to skew this just to make it more entertaining, so trust me when I say that I will not continuously re-simulate games until the Jets win. I will take the first simulation that comes up. Whatever happens, happens. This is science.
Important note: There are also settings to change the weather, so I will make sure those are accurate to the conditions that took place in the actual game.
Hop into the DeLorean with me.
September 6, 1998: Jets at 49ers
- Original result: 49ers win 36-30 (OT)
- Weather: 71 degrees, 14mph winds
- Stadium: 3Com Park
- Opponent finish: 12-4, +9.4 (Lost in NFC Divisional)
The 49ers were a tough opening-week opponent for the Jets. Led by a 37-year-old Steve Young in what would be his final healthy season as a starting quarterback, San Francisco finished 12-4, anchored by an offense that averaged 30 points per game.
But even with Foley at quarterback, the Jets went on a cross-country road trip and took an elite 49ers team to overtime. How will it play out in our re-simulation with Testaverde at quarterback?
Much differently.
In this do-over, the Jets came out on top in San Francisco (when the 49ers actually played in San Francisco). But it had little to do with the quarterback change. Instead, it was a dominant defensive performance sparking New York to a 17-6 victory.
The Jets’ secondary, featuring future head coach Aaron Glenn, held Jerry Rice to four receptions for 66 yards. Young passed for 125 yards, no touchdowns, and an interception by Victor Green.
Testaverde didn’t have his most explosive game, going 14-of-22 for 143 yards, but he tossed a touchdown and avoided turning the ball over. That’s all New York needed to maximize an outstanding defensive performance.
With Testaverde taking care of the ball, Curtis Martin was able to shoulder the load and lead New York to victory. After the 49ers took a 6-3 lead midway through the third quarter, Martin scored two touchdowns to close out the win. Martin finished with 23 carries for 124 yards and four receptions for 44 yards.
It is also worth noting that Bill Parcells’ disciplined team finished the game with just one penalty for five yards. This is accurate to real life, as the 1998 Jets finished with the third-fewest penalties in the NFL.
The Jets have already flipped one of their three Foley-led games to a win – and this was the toughest one to get. Their next two losses under Foley came against teams that finished with losing records.
Simulation Final: Jets 17, Niners 6
September 13, 1998: Ravens at Jets
- Original result: Ravens win 24-10
- Weather: 75 degrees, 9mph winds
- Stadium: Giants Stadium
- Opponent finish: 6-10, -4.1
For their home opener, the Jets hosted a Ravens team that had low expectations entering its third season in Baltimore. The renamed Cleveland Browns had gone 10-21-1 over the previous two years and were coming off a season-opening home loss to Pittsburgh. They ended up going 6-10, mostly because a 26th-ranked scoring offense.
In Week 2, 38-year-old Jim Harbaugh got the start at quarterback, going 5-of-10 for 36 yards. But it was Eric Zeier who led Baltimore to the road win, replacing Harbaugh and going 13-of-20 for 173 yards with a touchdown.
Foley struggled immensely in the loss, tossing three picks. The Ravens also did an incredible job of shutting down Martin, who ran for just 58 yards on 23 carries.
Could the Jets reverse their fortunes in the re-sim?
You betcha.
And this time, the quarterback change was the difference. In real life, Foley tossed one touchdown and three interceptions against a defense that finished 24th against the pass. But in this simulation, Testaverde went 17-of-29 for 203 yards, three touchdowns, and zero interceptions to spark a 36-6 blowout win for the home squad.
With more of a threat at quarterback to take defenders out of the box, Curtis Martin was able to get going, rushing 26 times for 179 yards. Defensively, four different Jets players picked up sacks, while Otis Smith picked off Harbaugh.
The Jets have now flipped two of their losses to victories, bringing their season win total to 14, which ties Denver.
One game remains. Can the Jets outright pass Denver for the top record in the AFC, or will the No. 1 seed come down to tiebreakers?
Simulation Final: Jets 36, Ravens 6
October 11, 1998: Jets at Rams
- Original result: Rams win 30-10
- Weather: Dome
- Stadium: TWA Dome
- Opponent finish: 4-12, -5.8
Testaverde had just led the Jets to back-to-back wins, but New York went back to Foley upon his return in Week 6. After all, the Jets were playing a 1-3 Rams team that had not posted a winning record since 1989, so it seemed like a cushy game to ease Foley back in.
Or so they thought. St. Louis’s defense smothered Foley, holding him to 5-of-15 passing for 76 yards, no touchdowns, and two picks as they raced out to a 23-3 lead. Parcells benched Foley for Testaverde in the fourth quarter, but it was too late by then.
This feels like another game where the QB change should tilt the tide. The Jets did lose by 20, though. Is Testaverde enough to make the difference?
Yep.
St. Louis jumped out to a 10-0 first quarter lead, but Testaverde responded with two 4-yard touchdown passes to Jets X-Factor’s Wayne Chrebet in the second quarter, giving New York a 17-10 halftime edge. The offense kept the foot on the gas pedal and sprinted to a 38-17 win.
Testaverde had another outstanding game, completing 20-of-26 passes for 247 yards, three touchdowns, and no picks. Martin ran for 170 yards, while Aaron Glenn and Jerome Henderson each snagged an interception.
Simulation Final: Jets 38, Rams 17
AFC Divisional: Dolphins at Jets
The Jets swept the three games started by Foley, bringing their regular season record to 15-1. This puts them above the 14-2 Broncos as the AFC’s No. 1 seed in 1998.
It also means that instead of hosting the Jaguars in the divisional round, they would host the Dolphins. Simulation time!
Led by a 37-year-old Dan Marino, the Dolphins came out strong, taking a 7-3 first-quarter lead after a 16-yard touchdown reception by Lamar Hunt. But the Jets responded with a 17-0 second quarter, including a 10-yard touchdown from Vinny to Curtis and a 3-yard touchdown run by Leon Johnson.
You probably think this is trending toward another simulated Jets blowout. Think again.
After a scoreless third quarter, Miami began the fourth quarter with back-to-back touchdowns by O.J. McDuffie and Karim Abdul Al-Jabbar to steal the 21-20 lead. But with six minutes left, Testaverde led the Jets on a five-minute march down the field for a go-ahead John Hall field goal.
With under a minute left, Marino had the ball and another chance to stab Jets fans in the heart. An 18-yard completion to McDuffie, taking the Dolphins to their own 43-yard line, put Miami within striking distance of a game-winning attempt.
But it’s Aaron Glenn and the Jets secondary getting the last laugh, forcing back-to-back incompletions to set up a home AFC championship against Denver.
Will it go differently this time around?
Simulation Final: Jets 23, Dolphins 21
AFC Championship: Broncos at Jets
Since we flipped the divisional matchups, it only makes sense that we had to re-do the Broncos’ game, too.
In our re-simulation of the Broncos’ divisional matchup with the Jaguars, Denver cruised to a 24-7 win. That leaves us with the bout we have been building toward from the beginning: Denver at New York for a trip to the Super Bowl.
As expected, having a full season of Testaverde gave the Jets the No. 1 seed they deserved based on their dominant play with him under center. Now, we find out whether the Jets could have taken the 1998 AFC championship if it were played in front of a hostile and hungry Meadowlands crowd.
It’s a chilly 35 degrees in northern New Jersey, but you could hardly feel it amidst the heat of 80,242 wailing fans, who tested the structural integrity of the 22-year-old Giants Stadium with the thundering clap of their collective voices.
Denver kicked off to the most deafening J-E-T-S chant heard to man, and Dave Meggett brought it out to the 30-yard line to start things off. In 2025, that would be a ho-hum start, but under the 1998 rules, that’s one hell of a way to get the crowd going.
The Jets opened the scoring with a 49-yard Hall field goal on their first drive. After that, a punt-fest ensued, until a 51-yard Jets drive in the second quarter was wasted by a 46-yard miss from Hall.
That set up a short field for the Broncos, who took advantage with a 64-yard touchdown drive, punctuated by fullback Howard Griffith from three yards out. 7-3 Denver.
But the Jets responded. After a return to their own 31, they quickly drove down for a 16-yard Kyle Brady touchdown – only for it to be called back due to holding. The Jets were forced to settle for a 43-yard attempt by Hall… which hooked wide left, sending Denver into halftime with the lead and the upcoming possession.
Classic Jets. Here we go again.
New York forces a three-and-out after halftime, punctuated by a 4-yard TFL from Pepper Johnson. But on the ensuing drive, Martin fumbles the ball away on the first play, setting Denver up on the Jets’ side of the field. The Broncos quickly score on a Rod Smith touchdown, and all of a sudden, the 15-1 Jets found themselves in a 14-3 hole.
The Jets responded with a 13-play, 68-yard drive, but they stalled out at the Broncos’ 4-yard line. This was before the analytics era, so Parcells did not think twice about taking the field goal to make it 14-6.
On the next drive, Denver started off with back-to-back chunk gains, and you could feel the anxiety heightening throughout the cascading stands of Giants Stadium. Just as expletives and bottles were about to be hurled, Otis Smith picked off Elway, and the Jets were back in business.
After 33 and 13-yard receptions by Keyshawn Johnson, the Jets found themselves inside of the 15-yard line. But back-to-back stuffed runs by Martin forced the Jets to take another short field goal, making it 14-9.
You need to score touchdowns to win playoff games, though, and the Broncos made that clear. Less than two minutes later, Thomas Davis broke free for a 42-yard touchdown run, and the Jets’ season was suddenly on the brink. 21-9 Denver.
Meggett responded with a return out to the 42, helping the Jets quickly rebound. After a methodical 13-play drive that mixed the run and the pass, Testaverde connected with Johnson from five yards out to make it 21-16 with 4:25 on the clock. All the Jets needed was for their defense to give their red-hot veteran quarterback one last chance to touch the ball.
It never happened.
On the strength of three Thomas Davis first downs, including two on third down, the Broncos milked the clock down to zeroes. And just to rub salt in the wound, they kick a field goal at the buzzer to extend the final score to 24-16.
Perhaps that last field goal was a direct fourth-wall-breaking message to yours truly: Don’t mess with time. The Denver Broncos are the 1998 AFC champions, the New York Jets are still searching for the first Super Bowl trip since 1968, and no simulator could change either of those things.
Nonetheless, this was an entertaining trip down memory lane. While the 1998 Jets still couldn’t get over the top in this simulation, the exercise brought light to the two-way dominance of that team. It was a truly elite squad that could have cruised its way to a title in many other seasons. Unfortunately, they just happened to run into a team that was even better. Such is life with the New York Jets.
It is astonishing, though, isn’t it? Even in a re-simulation where circumstances were tilted in their favor, the Jets still were shunned from a championship due to missed field goals, untimely holding penalties, and the defense failing to get the ball back to the offense one last time. Jetsiness transcends reality.
Sometimes, you just have to laugh.
