Justin Fields will take the field for the New York Jets in Saturday’s preseason opener. After a tumultuous start to training camp, he will be under pressure from fans and media members to provide some semblance of hope.
Following Saturday’s game, Fields’ box score stats will make the rounds. “Justin Fields completes X of Y passes for Z yards,” the headlines will read.
That is not how his performance should be evaluated. For many reasons, Fields’ box score stats won’t tell us anything of value.
First and foremost, it’s the preseason. The Jets will be running a vanilla offensive scheme against a vanilla defensive scheme. This is not an indicator of what New York’s offense will look like in the regular season, which means his production in the preseason will not carry any predictive value.
Secondly, it is a tiny sample size. It would not make sense to judge Fields too strongly – positive or negative – based on his raw production from a handful of passes. With one screen pass that breaks loose for an 80-yard touchdown, it looks like he was mesmerizing. With one drop off Jeremy Ruckert’s hands for an interception, it looks like he was awful.
Rather than relying on misleading surface-level stats, we must evaluate Fields based on his habits and process.
Even if Fields only plays a drive or two on Saturday, we can draw some meaningful takeaways from the way he approaches the game. The results will be fairly random over such a tiny sample, but his process will be apparent on a play-to-play basis. We can fairly evaluate his process over his full body of work, however small it may be.
Here are a few specific things to watch out for from Fields on Saturday.
Release speed/Decisiveness
One of Fields’ most critical weaknesses is his tendency to hang onto the ball too long. This is the root of many problems in his game, particularly his proneness to sacks and fumbles.
We have seen Fields continue to struggle in this area throughout training camp.
Jets X-Factor’s Robby Sabo had this to say about Fields’ performance at Tuesday’s practice:
“While it’s challenging to analyze Justin Fields wholly on the practice field, there are base-level parts of the position he must execute. When those items are not executed, analyzing his practices isn’t tricky.
“Time and again, Fields’s timing was late. It’s a crusher to Tanner Engstrand’s scheme that cannot stand. Whether it was scanning through his progressions or looking for the hot target against a pressure, Fields was stuck in his own head all morning.”
That is far from ideal for a quarterback in any scheme, let alone a Lions-influenced attack that is predicated upon releasing the ball quickly.
The Jets will not reveal the full extent of their scheme on Saturday, but it will still be imperative for Fields to display progress with his release speed and decisiveness. No matter what plays the Jets call, it would be encouraging to see Fields consistently display the ability to get through his reads smoothly and make quick, confident decisions.
In his career, Fields has averaged 3.29 seconds from snap to throw, per Pro Football Focus. For perspective, the longest mark among qualified quarterbacks in 2024 was 3.21 (Jalen Hurts).
Fields is a two-time league leader in this category, finishing at 3.45 in 2022 and 3.39 in 2023. He improved to a career-low 3.08 in 2024, but that was still third-highest at the position, and it was buoyed by the conservative game plan that Pittsburgh called for him.
This is the root of why Fields has the highest sack rate (11.9%) and most fumbles (44) among quarterbacks since 2021. The longer he holds the ball, the more time he gives the defense to make a play.
Fields has to get the ball out much faster if he wants to be a viable NFL starter. We can begin to see that from him on Saturday, regardless of whether the results are gaudy.
As you watch Fields play, keep track of his release time on each dropback. The fewer times he gets to three-Mississippi, the better.
If Fields looks like his usual indecisive self on Saturday, it’s a less-than-ideal sign.
Contextualized accuracy
Fields’ training camp completion percentages have been tossed around in the media over the past few weeks. Those numbers have been ugly, but they also could not be more meaningless.
Completion percentage is a weak enough metric when used to analyze a real game, let alone practices. It ignores far too many factors for me to list them here and wrap up before you need to close this article and return to your busy life.
When Fields takes the field on Saturday, his accuracy must be analyzed with context. How deep were his attempts? How tight were the windows he threw into? How much pressure was he under? How many of his incompletions were drops, throwaways, or batted at the line?
In the small sample of a preseason game, Fields’ completion percentage could drop from a sparkling 70% to a dismal 50% with just one drop and one throwaway. We will not learn anything about his arm by judging him on his raw completion percentage.
However, we can still gauge Fields’ accuracy if we consider the aforementioned variables while evaluating his throws.
For a great example of why this is important, let’s take a look back at Geno Smith’s 2022 preseason, which preceded his breakout season.
Smith was competing with Drew Lock for the Seahawks’ starting quarterback job. Heading into the preseason, Lock was gaining ground on Smith. The former Bronco was earning rave reviews, while the former Jet was being criticized – much like Fields today.
The preseason is when Smith set himself apart from Lock and showed that he might be a significantly improved quarterback. But his completion percentage wouldn’t tell you that.
Across three preseason appearances, Smith completed just 59% of his passes (23 of 39). Lock was a tick higher at 61.5% (24 for 39).
But after we account for Smith’s seven drops, two batted passes, and one throwaway to Lock’s four drops, zero batted passes, and zero throwaways, Smith’s adjusted completion percentage spikes to 83.3%, far ahead of Lock’s 71.8%.
Not only was Smith extremely consistent with his accuracy, but he did it while delivering a ton of high-quality passes and no atrocious ones. While Lock had two big-time throws and two turnover-worthy throws (per PFF), Smith had five big-time throws and zero turnover-worthy throws.
The box score claimed that Smith was inaccurate. The eye test told the real story.
Fields’ completion percentage on Saturday does not matter. However, we can draw some real takeaways by analyzing his adjusted completion percentage and accounting for the quality/difficulty of his passes.
Decision-making consistency
Above all, you want to see Fields make the best decision on each play.
Oftentimes, that decision will be boring. It could be throwing the ball at Breece Hall’s feet to avoid catastrophe on a busted screen. It could be dumping the ball off to the flat on third-and-15 because nothing else is open.
But the best decision is the best decision, regardless of how thrilling it is.
Over a small appearance with a vanilla offensive scheme, Fields might not get the chance to do many special things. It is entirely possible he will hand the ball off a few times, toss a couple of checkdowns, and call it a night.
That doesn’t mean there is nothing to evaluate. If Fields goes 0 for 4 with four throwaways, and each of those throwaways was the best decision, then it would be a solid outing from the quarterback.
The QB’s job is to make the best choice out of the options presented to him. Fields has struggled to do that in his career; he has produced a sack, fumble, or interception at a rate of once every 7.5 plays, the worst rate among 38 qualified quarterbacks since 2021. Zach Wilson (8.0) is the player directly behind him.
Jets fans should be encouraged if Fields goes out there and plays “boring” football – but only if those boring decisions are the correct ones. If Fields neglects big-play opportunities for checkdowns and throwaways, it could mean he is not comfortable in the offense yet, and is afraid to make a mistake. Sometimes, the big play is the right play, and you want to see Fields take those shots if they’re there.
Whether it’s bombing a 50-yard go route or sliding to protect himself on a 3-yard scramble, Fields can use Saturday to show that he is improving at identifying the best available decision.
