Massive Bills injury yields golden NY Jets opportunity

A surprising mid-week injury has tilted the tide of Week 2’s Jets-Bills clash.

Seventh-year defensive tackle Ed Oliver was ruled out by Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott, who said that Oliver is in a walking boot after getting stepped on this week.

Oliver’s absence leaves the Jets with an opportunity they cannot afford to squander.

Ground and pound

New York’s offense shocked the NFL with its season-opening performance against a stout Steelers defense. The Jets dropped 32 points and ranked third-best in offensive success rate (51.6%).

The surprising explosion was built around a dominant run game. Offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand relied on a run-first game script, and it worked tremendously, as the Jets racked up 182 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns.

Even before Oliver’s injury, this run-first formula was already an appealing recipe to exploit Buffalo’s defense. In Week 1, the Bills were pummeled on the ground by a Ravens offense that, like the Jets, is built around a running threat at quarterback. Baltimore ran for 238 yards and three scores in a 40-point eruption on Buffalo’s home field.

Now, heading on the road without their best defensive tackle, the Bills’ run defense looks extremely vulnerable entering Sunday’s contest.

Oliver was by far Buffalo’s best run defender in a mostly embarrassing performance against Baltimore’s rushing attack. He led the team with four run stops, including a critical forced fumble on Derrick Henry in the fourth quarter.

In fact, Buffalo was actually relatively consistent at stopping the run when No. 91 was out there.

With Oliver on the field, Buffalo allowed Baltimore to achieve a rushing success rate of just 38.9% (7 of 18). For perspective, that would have ranked 14th-best among defenses in 2024. The Ravens still picked up some breakaway runs with Oliver on the field, including 49 and 30-yard bursts by Derrick Henry, but the Oliver-led Bills defensive line usually stuffed the Ravens outside of those two plays.

But with Oliver on the sidelines, Baltimore essentially ran the ball at will. The Ravens had a rushing success rate of 72.7% (8 of 11) without Oliver on the field. Comparatively, the worst defensive rate in the NFL last season (Carolina) was 50.9%.

From a yardage standpoint, the Bills allowed 6.4 yards per rush attempt with Oliver on the field compared to 11.1 with him off.

Buffalo will not allow 11.1 yards per rush attempt all season with Oliver sidelined, but the 4.7-yard difference shows just how valuable he is to their run defense. This is already a shaky unit against the run as-is, but if you remove its best defensive tackle, it turns into a mismatch against a run-first team like New York.

Armed with a similar offensive identity to the Ravens (and home-field advantage that Baltimore did not have), the Jets are equipped to not only match the rushing success of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, but perhaps even exceed it now that Oliver is out.