Before you say anything… I get it. Trust me, I do.
To set the record straight, I am fully aware that we are still in the month of September, and takes about the 2026 NFL draft are way too premature for some. If you fall into that category, then this article may not be for you – and trust me, I take no offense if you move it right along.
Truth be told, any discussion about the New York Jets moving forward that does not involve the quarterback position is not thorough enough.
Four weeks into the season, the Jets’ starter, Justin Fields, has already missed time to heal up from a concussion. Missing games is not new for Fields – he had already missed 10 games due to injury over his first four seasons.
Although Fields returned from this injury after one game, any fan worth their weight in salt already knows that the “Justin Fields Experiment” is one that will not be long-lived. At most, we are looking at a relatively cheap two-year bridge quarterback.
UDFA Brady Cook, currently parked on the Jets’ practice squad, is not a viable option to be the QB of the future. So, the Jets really have three viable options:
- Hope that Fields figures it out and becomes their version of Baker Mayfield
- Scour the FA market and/or the trade market for the next QB
- Draft their future QB in 2026
Options one and two have a very slim chance at success. A new regime is going to want to hitch its wagon to a handpicked QB.
And there has not been a hotter name at the QB position so far this college football season than Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza.
Mendoza is a 21-year-old, 6-foot-5, 225-pound specimen with a spectacular arm and nerves of steel. Mendoza really turned the corner in his second year as a starter at Cal in 2024. The early summer consensus had Mendoza as more of a top-75 pick and not in the QB1 discussion, which he has now entered.
A few analysts were talking him up a bit, but for full transparency, I did not watch any of Mendoza’s 2024 film at Cal until recently.
So, I dove into a slew of his 2024 games, and I was more than pleasantly surprised. I saw high-end arm talent – someone who could make any throw he was asked to. I saw a leader in the huddle – a player who had and demanded the respect of the players and the coaches.
Most importantly, I saw a player who was such a perfect fit for the Tanner Engstrand-led offense.
Engstrand’s offense is meant to be fast-paced and balanced. It emphasizes play-action and quick passes. Mendoza’s quick release and accuracy align with the system’s detailed route-running demands, complementing Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall. He has enough mobility to satisfy Engstrand’s play-action-heavy scheme, though limited RPO usage caps his dual-threat fit compared to Justin Fields.
There are shades of Carson Palmer’s arm talent and Eli Manning’s rhythm and accuracy. Is it enough for a team like the Jets to (possibly) target him very early in round one?
Here is my in-depth scouting report on the skyrocketing 2026 quarterback prosect.
Fernando Mendoza Scouting Report
- QB
- Indiana (2025), Cal (2022-2024)
- 6050
- 226 lbs
- 21 years old
- RS Junior
- Miami, FL
- Games watched: Florida St. (2024), Syracuse (2024), Miami (2024), Stanford (2024), Kennesaw St. (2025), ODU (2025), llinois (2025)
Physical traits
Prototypical size for a modern-day quarterback in both height (87th percentile) and weight (65th percentile). Tall enough to see over the line and keep all sight lines of the full field. Long limbs, and from a distance, looks as if body mass is lean and evenly distributed top half and bottom half.
Carries enough mass to withstand contact and remain durable. Above-average hand size, which is a plus for all the cold-weather teams. Mendoza has avoided any major injuries throughout his collegiate career, missing only one start due to illness after he won the starting job at Cal.
Athletic traits
Not the most prolific athlete – probably best described as functionally mobile. He is long-limbed and a long strider who is pretty fast for a 6-foot-5 guy. Does a really good job moving around the pocket and extending plays when needed – he keeps his eyes downfield when he does get flushed.
Lacks that dynamic elusiveness and agility that some higher-end athletes at the position or true dual-threat QBs possess. He’s a traditional pocket passer, but not a statue in the pocket.
“Sneaky athletic” – you don’t expect it, but all of a sudden, he can pull the ball back on an RPO and pop off for a chunk play using his legs. All that notwithstanding, I would not label Mendoza as a dual-threat QB – he’s not a guy you want to scheme designed runs for.
Arm Talent
Really good arm talent – he can sling it. Stellar mechanics – generates torque from the ground and hips, clean throwing motion – has footwork that aligns with his eyes, and he has an expeditious release.
Loose and limber arm – has shown the ability to throw from different arm angles. In 20+ collegiate starts, he has clearly demonstrated an NFL-caliber arm – he can make all throws inside and outside the numbers and up the seams.
Arm strength is 8.5 out of 10. Once released, his throws never flutter. Changes velocity as needed – there are many instances where he layers his throws with touch and anticipation over the LBs (see 2024 vs. Miami) and other instances where he zips a ball inside a small window for completion (see 2024 vs. Syracuse).
Extremely accurate – elite in the short and in the intermediate areas and on the perimeter throws (back shoulder throws, rails, ect.). Under duress, his accuracy stays very consistent. Stands tall in the face of the rush and delivers tight-window throws (see 2025 vs. Illinois).
Can improve his deep/vertical ball – it is evident he feels more comfortable and works better in the horizontal plane than in the vertical. I would like to see him attack more with the deep ball and take more high-reward shots.
Mental Traits
Elite mental aptitude/traits. Good football IQ. Mature beyond his years in terms of his pre/post-snap reads and coverage identification – you can deduce that he spends a lot of time not only studying his playbook but also watching film of the opponent.
Has vastly improved his ability to read defenses from his start at Cal to now. Improved decision-making has helped him cut down on turnovers and the number of turnover-worthy throws.
Does a really good job looking off defenders with his eyes – has shown he is capable of full-field reads and can progress through his looks from 1, to 2, to 3 and go back to 1 and deliver strikes (see 2025 vs. Illinois). However, has shown instances of locking onto a receiver and forcing throws under pressure (see 2025 vs. ODU). Playing more loosely and getting in rhythm will exude playing free and with more confidence – that is bound to help the poise under pressure.
Additional information
Was first-team All-Dade County (2021) and an FHSAA 8A State Champion (2020, was the backup QB) in high school. A three-time ACC Quarterback of the Week (2024), a Manning Award Quarterback of the Month (November 2024), and earned PFF Preseason All-Big Ten (2025) through his collegiate career.
Some metrics from 2024:
- 68.7% completion percentage (top 10 in FBS)
- 75.5% adjusted completion percentage (30th in FBS)
- 3,004 yards (29th in FBS)
- 16 TDs (67th in FBS)
- 1.6% Interception percentage (19th in FBS)
- 5.1% off-target pass percentage (1st in FBS)
In 2025 through 5 weeks:
- 71.8% completion percentage (13th in FBS)
- 79.3% adjusted completion percentage (18th in FBS)
- 1,208 yards (22nd in FBS)
- 16 TDs (2nd in FBS)
- 0 interceptions
- 2.1% off-target pass percentage (1st in FBS)
Outlook
Fernando Mendoza is at his best as a structured, rhythmic pocket passer who is not asked or forced to do too much. It’s hard not to recognize why the prize of last season’s transfer portal landed at Indiana. HC Curt Cignetti’s spread-happy scheme emphasizes high-efficiency passing and requires its QB not only to be accurate but to excel playing at a high tempo – all aspects that have fit Mendoza to a tee.
Mendoza may not be up there with Josh Allen or Jeff George in terms of true “elite” arm strength, but he is close – he sure can sling it. Mendoza played with some arrogance during his two years starting at Cal, which resulted in too many turnover-worthy plays (17 in 2024 per PFF) needing to be cleaned up.
His 2025 film (albeit limited in sample size) shows a quicker decision maker and the ability to defer to the checkdown option instead of pressing vertically with the hero throws – all of which may be by design to quell the arrogance level and avoid putting the ball in harm’s way.
Mendoza’s stock has risen very high of late. Already with a signature win in 2025 under his belt against No. 9 Illinois, Mendoza will look to continue his early-season dominance as he gets into the heart of the Big 10 schedule.
Mendoza’s polished pocket passing, strong arm, and low turnover risk make him as promising a 2026 NFL draft prospect as there is. His 2024 breakout and 2025 transition to Indiana’s spread offense offer a platform to address big-game inexperience and pressure mechanics – critical if a team is going to invest high draft capital in him.
The floor is very high, and the ceiling (at this point) is undefined. The sky is the limit for Mendoza.
Role and Scheme: Starter/potential franchise QB in a pro-style or West Coast/horizontal stretching system, which is strong up front at the O-line and won’t depend on him creating with his legs. Continued success in 2025 could land him squarely in the QB1 of the class discussion.
