Aaron Rodgers is 3-1. One of those wins came over the Jets.
Naturally, a start like this has brought the Aaron Rodgers Brigade™ out of the woodwork in a full-on swarm. This rambunctious group includes the Jets fans who begged and pleaded for the team to run it back with the 41-year-old in 2025. Given how the season has begun, they are parading around the internet with their “I Told You So” signs held high and proud.
And they could not be further off the mark.
The Jets aren’t missing a darn thing without Aaron Rodgers
For a plethora of reasons, the difference in New York and Pittsburgh’s records is absolutely meaningless as it pertains to Aaron Glenn’s decision to part ways with Rodgers.
First and foremost, Rodgers’ win-loss record belies how well he is actually playing. Most advanced metrics agree that Rodgers has actually been mediocre at best through four games.
According to the following chart from Ben Baldwin, which ranks quarterbacks based on their combined percentile rankings in adjusted EPA (Expected Points Added) per play and overall Pro Football Focus grade, Rodgers ranks 30th out of 32 qualified quarterbacks through Week 4. His replacement in New York, Justin Fields, is 20th.
On top of that, Rodgers ranks 22nd out of 32 qualifiers with a QBR of 46.1, while Fields is 17th with a QBR of 56.8.
No matter how you slice it, Rodgers is not the solid starter his avid defenders think he is.
These rankings might seem surprising, because if you look at the box score, it seems like Rodgers is playing pretty well. He’s completed 68.5% of his passes for eight touchdowns and three interceptions. His 102.6 passer rating ranks ninth-best in the league.
The box score is missing the reality of Rodgers’ performance this year. At this point of his career, Rodgers’ game is limited to an extreme extent. He has been the most conservative starting quarterback in the NFL, and despite that, he has still been wildly prone to risky throws—without his signature big-time throws to make up for it.
Among 32 qualified quarterbacks, Rodgers has the lowest ADOT (average depth of target) at 5.2 yards, and the quickest time to throw at 2.48 seconds. An approach this conservative should yield consistent, safe production; i.e. very few risky throws and a high degree of consistency.
Instead, Rodgers has hurled six turnover-worthy throws; his 4.7% turnover-worthy throw rate is seventh-worst among qualifiers. He’s lucky to have only thrown three interceptions; Jets fans will remember that New York dropped two interception chances against Rodgers in Week 1.
At the same time, Rodgers no longer delivers enough special plays to make up for his spike in risky throws. He only has three “big-time throws,” and his 2.6% big-time throw rate is 22nd. His -3 margin of big-time throws to turnover-worthy throws is tied for fifth-worst.
Rodgers is little more than a Checkdown Charlie at this point. He is averaging a league-low 3.1 air yards per completion, a half-yard behind any other quarterback.
When your throws are that easy, you should have the best accuracy numbers in the NFL. Instead, Rodgers has a bad-throw rate of 15.5%, per Pro Football Reference, which is only 16th-lowest out of 33 qualifiers. Relative to his league lows in ADOT and air yards per completion, that is a startlingly high rate.
READ MORE: Smell the roses, NFL: Armand Membou should be the OROY favoriteRodgers offers almost no threat of throwing the ball downfield. In four games, Rodgers has completed just 11 passes of 10+ air yards, less than three per game. When throwing at least 10 yards downfield, he’s 11-of-24 (45.8%) for four touchdowns and three interceptions, and that’s despite his receivers being charged for zero drops on those attempts.
This isn’t even solely because of deep passes. Rodgers can’t even hit the middle of the field with consistency anymore. He has only completed seven intermediate passes (10-19 yards downfield), which ranks 30th in the league.
The Steelers may be 3-1, but it is more in spite of Rodgers than because of him. In classic Steeler fashion, their record is a product of their dominance in the swing factors, particularly their second-ranked total of 10 takeaways. Combined with Rodgers having some luck in the turnover department, the Steelers rank second-best with a +7 turnover margin, which hides their overall struggles as a team.
Chastising the Jets for moving on from Rodgers is a waste of breath. He’s a 41-year-old quarterback who casts a shadow of drama much too large for the production he brings to the table. If the Jets kept Rodgers, they would probably still be 0-4, only with an even brighter spotlight on their misery.
