The New York Jets rank last in the NFL in passing yards, and they have five first-round picks over the next two drafts.

Translation: One of the best quarterbacks in college football will soon take on the Herculean challenge of donning a green helmet in northern New Jersey.

Who? That remains to be seen. But unless the Jets swing a shocking trade for a veteran quarterback, they will have a first-round pick under center soon.

It’s possible that New York could wait to draft a quarterback until 2027, when the team has three first-round picks. Whether that happens will depend on how they feel about the 2026 quarterback class.

As things stand, a consensus QB1 is emerging in the 2026 draft, although his ownership of the title is far from unanimous. Multiple prospects still have a chance to push for the title before the draft process begins.

On Nov. 8, ESPN polled 25 NFL scouts and executives about who will be the first quarterback taken in the 2026 NFL draft. Six quarterbacks received votes, with one receiving more than half of the pie.

  • Fernando Mendoza, Indiana (13)
  • Ty Simpson, Alabama (6)
  • Dante Moore, Oregon (3)
  • John Mateer, Oklahoma (1)
  • LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina (1)
  • Brendan Sorsby, Cincinnati (1)

The landscape has shifted significantly since the start of the college football season. When ESPN ran the same poll on Sept. 20, Sellers was the top vote-getter (eight), closely trailed by LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier (seven), who did not appear in the most recent poll.

Mendoza and Simpson rapidly vaulted themselves into the conversation as potential top-five picks in the 2026 draft. In the September poll, neither quarterback received votes. Their breakout seasons have them ascending quickly heading into draft season.

READ MORE: Fernando Mendoza’s HS coach speaks to Jet X about Indiana QB’s NY readiness

The Jets currently possess the third overall pick in the 2026 draft. At 1-7, they are a half-game behind the New Orleans Saints (1-8) and Tennessee Titans (1-8) in the race for the first pick.

New York will visit New Orleans in Week 16, a game that will likely be pivotal in determining where the first quarterback of the 2026 draft ultimately lands. Tennessee is unlikely to select a quarterback after choosing Cam Ward first overall in this year’s draft, but the Saints need a franchise signal-caller as badly as the Jets.

For now, it seems that Mendoza is the favorite to establish himself as the 2026 draft’s QB1, but he is far from cemented as the clear-cut top guy. Plenty of time remains for him to earn that status, but in all likelihood, this will be an unpredictable class. There’s no Trevor Lawrence-type prospect to be earned in this year’s Jets tank-a-thon. The order of the top quarterbacks will be determined by fit.

That is, if the Jets even like one of these quarterbacks enough to take them in the top five.

While the Jets remain desperate for a franchise quarterback (when haven’t they been?), their acquisition of two extra first-round picks in the 2027 draft has decreased their urgency to swing in 2026. If they aren’t convinced that one of these prospects is worth the capital it would take to acquire them, the Jets don’t have to force it.

As recently as six weeks ago, Mendoza and Simpson were not on the radar to be chosen first overall. While these fast-rising prospects occasionally work out, there are also plenty of horror stories; the Jets learned this firsthand in 2021 when they drafted Zach Wilson second overall, who received little to no first-round buzz before his final college season.

It all comes down to the Jets’ evaluations of the class: Do they think someone fits their scheme and culture well enough to justify a high draft pick? There doesn’t seem to be a tank-worthy megastar, unless Mendoza can use the remainder of this season to cement himself as the guy.