For New York Jets fans who understand why every win is still extremely valuable for the future of the team, Sunday was a fun afternoon. The team pulled off a fourth-quarter comeback to defeat the Atlanta Falcons by a score of 27-24, capped off by a game-winning field goal off the right foot of the ageless Nick Folk.
For Jets fans who have fastened their seatbelts on the tank, though, Sunday was quite miserable.
After entering Sunday in possession of the fourth overall pick in the 2026 NFL draft, the Jets have fallen three spots to the seventh overall pick. Defeating Atlanta left the door open for up to three teams to leapfrog them, and all three of those teams seized the opportunity by losing their respective games: Las Vegas, Cleveland, and Washington.
Here is a look at the draft order after Week 13’s Sunday games:
- Tennessee Titans (1-11, .571 SOS)
- New Orleans Saints (2-10, .502 SOS)
- New York Giants (2-10, .539 SOS)
- Las Vegas Raiders (2-10, .556 SOS)
- Cleveland Browns (3-9, .480 SOS)
- Washington Commanders (3-9, .517 SOS)
- New York Jets (3-9, .534 SOS)
- Arizona Cardinals (3-9, .565 SOS)
- Los Angeles Rams, via Atlanta Falcons (4-8, .498 SOS)
- Cincinnati Bengals (4-8, .517 SOS)
- Minnesota Vikings (4-8, .532 SOS)
- Miami Dolphins (5-7, .488 SOS)
It’s not all bad for the Jets’ draft outlook, though.
The Indianapolis Colts (whose 2026 first-round pick will transfer to the Jets) dropped to 8-4 with a loss to the rival Houston Texans, who are hot on their trail at 7-5. The Jaguars beat the Titans to move to 8-4, and due to their common-games tiebreaker, Jacksonville is the new AFC South leader, pushing the Colts down to the sixth seed as a wild card.
Once the darlings of the NFL, Indy’s season is rapidly falling apart after going 1-3 over their last four games. Not only have they ceded the division lead, but they have a measly one-game advantage for a playoff spot. If they drop out of the playoff picture, their pick will land in the top 18. If they make it in, their slot will depend on which round they make it to, but every loss hurts their odds of advancing through the dance.
With Daniel Jones clearly being limited as he plays through a fractured fibula, Sauce Gardner exiting this week’s game with a non-contact injury, and the Colts’ next five games against teams with a winning record, it is starting to look very plausible that the Jets’ pick from Indianapolis will land in the top 18.
Where Jets stand after tanking effort falls short
The Jets’ draft outlook suddenly looks a whole lot different. They entered Week 13 with a chance to hold the No. 1 overall pick by the end of the week; now, their pick could drop as low as No. 11 by the end of Week 14.
If the Jets defeat Miami at home, they would drop one spot with every loss between the Cardinals (vs. Rams), Falcons (vs. Seahawks), Bengals (vs. Bills), and Vikings (vs. Commanders). This is based on current strength-of-schedule tiebreakers; it’s possible that the Vikings could close Week 14 with a stronger schedule than the Jets, allowing New York to stay ahead in a potential tiebreaker.
It’s a grim outlook for fans who had their sights set on the first overall selection, but if the Jets keep winning games, it is arguably worth falling in the draft. With a rookie head coach and an extremely young roster, this team needs to win games to strengthen its foundation for the future. If the Jets lost their way to the first pick, the foundation would be weak, meaning it likely would not matter who they took with the selection.
After all, fans tend to ignore how unreliable the No. 1 pick has become. There are 10 quarterbacks playing in the league right now who were chosen first overall. Only three of them have a passer rating above the NFL average (91.8), and all three of them are on a different team than the one that drafted them: Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff, and Baker Mayfield.
To be fair, Joe Burrow is among the seven with a below-average passer rating, and he obviously counts as a “hit” out of the No. 1 slot. Otherwise, though, the hit rate for this pick slot has not been anywhere close to the slam-dunk that pro-tank fans pretend it is.
Many of the league’s best signal callers were chosen outside of the top five, including recent MVPs Josh Allen (7th), Patrick Mahomes (10th), and Lamar Jackson (32nd), along with last year’s Super Bowl MVP, Jalen Hurts (53rd). The idea that a team needs to pick first—or even second, third, or fourth—to land a great quarterback is far-fetched in today’s league.
In a vacuum, it’s always better to be one spot higher on the draft board, but the real-life trade-off arguably isn’t worth it for the Jets in their current situation. They need Aaron Glenn to be their answer as a head coach, and every win he earns in 2025 serves as further evidence that he can be that guy.
While losing to climb the draft board is appealing since the short-term wins wouldn’t push the Jets into the playoffs, every one of those losses would make the Jets’ head coach and roster look weaker, therefore decreasing their odds of long-term success.
The Jets’ tanking dreams have crashed and burned, but fans shouldn’t be upset about it.
