It wasn’t long ago that New York Jets fans were wondering if Aaron Glenn might be a one-and-done head coach.

Those conversations effectively died at the trade deadline. Once it became clear the Jets were entering a full-scale rebuild, it affirmed their commitment to Glenn moving forward.

But the one-and-done conversations also faded for another reason: Glenn’s team has turned a sharp corner since Week 8, playing with an edge they simply didn’t have for the first seven weeks of the season.

It’s hard not to compare Glenn’s turnaround to one of the NFL’s most remarkable turnarounds in recent memory.

Jets continue to mirror the Detroit Lions’ rebuild

Glenn’s trajectory mirrors the path Dan Campbell followed during his first year as the head coach in Detroit, when Glenn served as the Lions’ defensive coordinator. Campbell’s team endured a brutal start but followed it with a late-season surge that hinted at something real taking shape.

When Campbell arrived in Detroit, he took over a franchise coming off a horrendous stretch under Matt Patricia. Expectations were minimal, reflected in an over-under of 4.5 wins for Campbell’s first season.

Detroit opened 0-8 with an average point differential of -13.8. After the Week 9 bye, the Lions looked noticeably different, finishing 3-5-1 and improving their point differential to -3.9. That late push was the first sign Campbell’s approach was starting to take hold.

In Campbell’s second season, with expectations raised to 6.5 wins, the Lions stumbled to a 1-6 start, drawing renewed calls for his job as his record fell to 4-19-1. Then, the Lions reached their turning point: an 8-2 finish and a 9-8 season that exceeded every projection.

From there, the Lions only kept climbing, going 12-5 in Campbell’s third season and 15-2 in his fourth year. Currently sitting at 8-4, they are on track for a fourth consecutive winning season, all under a head coach who started 0-8.

The Lions’ climb to their current status as an NFC contender can be traced back to the post-bye turnaround that Campbell put together in his very first season. It highlights why Glenn’s recent turnaround is crucial for the franchise’s long-term prospects.

Going back to 1980, Glenn is one of 18 head coaches to start 0-6 with a new team. Only four of the previous 17 eventually led their teams to the playoffs, with Campbell being the most recent.

Those are long odds, which is why it’s paramount for New York to see Glenn inspire faith before the end of his debut season. It’s what Campbell did to signal that he was on track to become the latest coach to buck the trend.

Glenn’s turnaround

Through seven games, the Jets had been outscored 183-129, a -7.7 average margin that placed them 26th in the league.

The raw record didn’t tell the whole story, though. Their first stretch came against one of the league’s softest schedules, reflected in a strength-of-schedule rating of -2.7, which dropped their Simple Rating System (point differential adjusted for strength-of-schedule) to a league-low -10.4.

An SRS of -10.4 translated to a Pythagorean win total of just 1.7 over those seven games, putting the Jets on pace for 4.2 Pythagorean wins across a full 17-game season. With a preseason over-under of 6.5 wins, that trajectory placed Glenn roughly 2.3 Pythagorean wins behind expectations.

Measured against nine one-and-done coaches since 2018, Glenn stacked up poorly, as Jets X-Factor’s Michael Nania pointed out. The Jets’ SRS at that point was higher than only Urban Meyer’s 2021 Jaguars and Steve Wilks’ 2018 Cardinals. In terms of Pythagorean wins versus expectation, he was pacing ahead of just Meyer, Wilks, Frank Reich’s 2023 Panthers, and Nathaniel Hackett’s 2023 Broncos.

For context, even when a coach was dismissed during the season, the full-year numbers still count toward their profile, since the roster and systems were built under them. In that framework, Glenn’s early-season performance was so poor that it ranked below the typical one-and-done head coach.

However, since Week 8, the picture has looked completely different for the former Pro Bowl cornerback.

A wild 39-38 win over the Cincinnati Bengals sent the Jets into their bye week with some long-coveted momentum. They carried it right through the break, returning with a 27-20 home win over the Cleveland Browns. The team began to display a level of composure that simply wasn’t there in September and October.

Even the two losses that followed, coming as double-digit road underdogs to the New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens, showed signs of growth. The Jets held leads in both, including a halftime edge against the Ravens, and stayed competitive well into the fourth quarter of each game. Then came last Sunday’s 27-24 grind-it-out win over Atlanta, giving New York three victories in their last five games.

Through all of this, Glenn has quietly begun to redeem himself. His game management has tightened, the team has looked more prepared week to week, and, most importantly, he hasn’t lost the locker room. Players have continued to buy in despite the rocky start, and fans who were ready to write him off a month ago have gradually begun to see progress worth believing in.

Despite a segment of the fan base entering the year with unrealistic expectations, it’s worth remembering that the Jets’ preseason over-under was 6.5 wins (per Pro Football Reference), a mark Glenn could still come close to if his team maintains its current trajectory. Had he made the switch from Justin Fields to Tyrod Taylor earlier, New York might already be close to that number. A move at halftime of the Week 6 loss to Denver, or before the Week 7 matchup with Carolina, could have swung either game.

Not to mention, expectations for the Jets dropped even lower when they traded Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams. For the Jets to have only improved since those deals is a testament to the progress being made by Glenn.

That’s why the Jets’ final five games are critical. Even with a vocal segment of the fan base focused on draft position, Glenn needs to stack as many wins as possible. For a first-year coach trying to establish credibility and prove that the early-season turbulence doesn’t define him, these closing weeks matter just as much as they do for any player fighting to lock down a role heading into next year.

And if Glenn finishes this year strong, much like Campbell did in Detroit, he’ll carry the Jets into the offseason with momentum and a fan base increasingly willing to trust that the proper foundation is finally being laid.