Mock drafting is a Christmas tradition for New York Jets fans. Scratch that—it’s a Thanksgiving tradition.

Halloween tradition, even?

Simply put, Jets fans are accustomed to making and reading mock drafts well before the ball drops 32 miles to the east.

How accurate are these premature mock drafts, though?

As Jets fans spend another December on the mock draft grind, let’s revisit some of the players New York was expected to draft at this same point of the calendar in previous years.

December 2024

For this exercise, we’ll be using the consensus mock draft at NFL Mock Draft Database. It pulls selections from hundreds of mock drafts across the internet to gauge the worldwide consensus on the draft landscape at any given point.

So, who were the Jets expected to draft at this point one year ago?

I was able to pull up the consensus mock draft from Dec. 24, 2024. The Jets were projected to select eighth at the time. Here is how the consensus mock draft shook out:

  1. New York Giants: Cam Ward, QB, Miami (73% of picks)
  2. New England Patriots: Travis Hunter, CB, Colorado (73%)
  3. Jacksonville Jaguars: Will Johnson, CB, Michigan (48%)
  4. Tennessee Titans: Kelvin Banks, OT, Texas (40%)
  5. Cleveland Browns: Will Campbell, OT, LSU (33%)
  6. Las Vegas Raiders: Jalen Milroe, QB, Alabama (33%)
  7. Carolina Panthers: Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Arizona (60%)
  8. New York Jets: Abdul Carter, EDGE, Penn State (17%)
  9. Chicago Bears: Josh Simmons, OT, Ohio State (12%)
  10. New Orleans Saints: Mykel Williams, EDGE, Georgia (28%)

If that doesn’t sum up how inaccurate December mock drafts are, I’m not sure what will. Only one of the top eight picks was spot-on: Tetairoa McMillan landing with the Carolina Panthers.

The Jets were projected to select Penn State edge rusher Abdul Carter, which is wild to think about in hindsight. Carter’s stock rose throughout the draft process, and by draft day, he was widely considered the best overall prospect in the class. Carter went third overall to the Giants.

Meanwhile, the Jets wound up picking seventh overall, where they took Missouri offensive tackle Armand Membou. Where in the first round was Membou projected to go in December, you ask?

Nowhere.

One year ago at this time, Membou was ranked 60th overall on the consensus big board—nowhere remotely close to consideration for the Jets’ first-round pick.

Membou’s stock rose throughout the draft process, highlighted by a fantastic combine, and he ended up being the second tackle off the board. Despite the apparent risk of drafting a late riser, Membou has been one of the NFL’s best rookies in 2025, regardless of position. Pro Football Focus has the 21-year-old ranked as the 11th-best right tackle in the NFL this season.

Another fascinating takeaway for the Jets is the shift in the quarterback landscape. Alabama’s Jalen Milroe was projected to go sixth overall to the Raiders one year ago, and he ended up being chosen in the third round. Could one of the quarterback prospects currently projected to go top-10 in 2026 end up suffering a similar free-fall?

December 2023

Here is the consensus mock draft from Dec. 19, 2023:

  1. Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams, QB, USC (83%)
  2. Arizona Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State (83%)
  3. Washington Commanders: Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State (42%)
  4. New England Patriots: Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU (75%)
  5. New York Giants: Malik Nabers, WR, LSU (33%)
  6. Los Angeles Chargers: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia (40%)
  7. Tennessee Titans: Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame (33%)
  8. Chicago Bears: Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA (50%)
  9. New York Jets: JC Latham, OT, Alabama (40%)
  10. Atlanta Falcons: Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina (11%)

We had a slightly more accurate read of the draft landscape in December 2023 than in December 2024. Three of the top 10 picks were correct: Caleb Williams, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Malik Nabers.

With the Jets preparing to welcome back an aging Aaron Rodgers off an Achilles injury, they were widely expected to select an offensive tackle. That turned out to be correct, but the prospect rankings looked much different.

Olu Fashanu, the Jets’ future 11th overall pick, was projected to go third overall to the Commanders. Fashanu was expected to be the first tackle off the board, ahead of Joe Alt and JC Latham.

As it turns out, Alt was the first tackle chosen, going to Los Angeles at No. 5, while Latham followed him, going to Tennessee at No. 9. Fashanu ended up third in the tackle pecking order.

Alt has certainly been the best tackle of this class, justifying his late rise over Fashanu in the draft process. Fashanu, though, has ascended to one of the NFL’s best pass-blocking left tackles over the last two months. Latham has also been a solid starter for the Titans, although he moved from left tackle to right tackle after his rookie season, and Fashanu has been the better pass protector.

It’s fascinating to think about a world where Washington passes on Jayden Daniels for Fashanu, Daniels lands in New England instead of Drake Maye, and Atlanta scoops up Maye instead of Michael Penix.

December 2022

The closest date I was able to find from 2022 was Dec. 6.

Crazy as it may sound, the Jets held a playoff spot on Dec. 6, 2022. They had just lost to the Minnesota Vikings, but they still had a 7-5 record, good enough for a wild card spot at the time. As a result, the Jets were projected to select all the way down at No. 22.

Here is how things were expected to shake out in the Jets’ projected pick range:

  • 17. New England Patriots: Jaxson Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State (24%)
  • 18. Washington Commanders: Trenton Simpson, LB, Clemson (13%)
  • 19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina (23%)
  • 20. Seattle Seahawks: Clark Phillips III, CB, Utah (25%)
  • 21. Tennessee Titans: Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma (13%)
  • 22. New York Jets: Brian Branch, S, Alabama (15%)
  • 23. New York Giants: Kayshon Boutte, WR, LSU (25%)
  • 24. Denver Broncos: Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia (22%)

The most notable takeaway here is that six of the eight players did not even get drafted in the first round. It goes to show how drastically the draft landscape can shift up until draft day, especially once you get past the top few prospects.

The Jets, though, were expected to land the best player of the bunch: Alabama safety Brian Branch. Detroit ended up selecting Branch 45th overall in the second round, while Aaron Glenn was their defensive coordinator. Under Glenn, Branch ascended to Pro Bowl status in the 2024 season.

In fact, the Jets had a chance to select Branch with the 43rd overall pick, but they chose Wisconsin lineman Joe Tippmann instead. It’s hardly a regrettable pick, as Tippmann is one of the Jets’ few reliable starters going into the 2026 season.

New York has not drafted a safety within the first three rounds since Ashtyn Davis in 2020. The last time the Jets took a safety within the first two rounds was in 2017, when they took Jamal Adams and Marcus Maye in the first and second rounds, respectively.

As a result, the Jets have struggled mightily at safety throughout the 2020s, and it remains one of the team’s greatest needs entering the 2026 offseason. While it is not a premium position, the Jets have almost no upside to speak of at the position, so it would not be surprising if they use one of their four projected top-50 picks on a safety.

After a 7-4 start, the Jets ended up losing the remainder of their games in 2022, pushing them up to the 13th overall slot of the 2023 draft. They would move back two spots as part of the Aaron Rodgers trade. At No. 15, they took edge rusher Will McDonald.

On Dec. 6, 2022, McDonald was nowhere close to the first-round conversation, placing 69th on the consensus big board. He rose throughout the draft process, but even on draft day, McDonald was still ranked 34th overall. It was a slight shock when the Jets called his name at No. 15.

December 2021

Here is the consensus mock draft from Dec. 20, 2021:

  1. Detroit Lions: Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE, Oregon (48%)
  2. Jacksonville Jaguars: Evan Neal, OT, Alabama (44%)
  3. Houston Texans: Matt Corral, QB, Mississippi (20%)
  4. New York Jets: Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU (36%)
  5. New York Giants: George Karlaftis, EDGE, Purdue (14%)
  6. New York Giants: Kenyon Green, IOL, Texas A&M (12%)
  7. New York Jets: Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame (13%)
  8. Carolina Panthers: Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh (11%)
  9. Atlanta Falcons: DeMarvin Leal, DL, Texas A&M (10%)
  10. Philadelphia Eagles: Andrew Booth Jr., CB, Clemson (14%)

Armed with two first-round picks and two second-round picks thanks to the Jamal Adams trade, this was one of the Jets’ most highly anticipated drafts in franchise history, and it lived up to the hype.

The Jets’ first four picks yielded Sauce Gardner, Garrett Wilson, Jermaine Johnson, and Breece Hall. While the most accomplished of those four players is already gone, his impact on the franchise will be felt for years to come, as the Jets turned him into two first-round picks and Adonai Mitchell.

In December 2021, the Jets’ expected output looked quite different from how it ultimately ended up, but it would still have been a great haul. Instead of Sauce Gardner, they were expected to choose future Texans cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. with the fourth pick. Stingley, who wound up going one spot ahead of Gardner at No. 3, was a first-team All-Pro in 2024.

With their No. 7 pick from Seattle (a pick that ended up slotting in at No. 10, where the Jets took Garrett Wilson), the Jets were expected to select future Ravens safety Kyle Hamilton, who is now a two-time All-Pro.

Wilson was expected to be chosen 13th overall by the Saints, while Gardner was projected to the Bengals at No. 17. Johnson was not in the first-round conversation yet, as he was ranked 58th overall on the consensus big board. Hall was ranked 40th overall.

Fast forward back to December 2025

After getting a feel for the inaccuracy of consensus mock drafts in December, let’s return to 2025 and check out the current landscape, knowing it will undoubtedly look hilarious in the future.

Here is the consensus mock draft from Dec. 19, 2025:

  1. New York Giants: Arvell Reese, LB, Ohio State (44%)
  2. Las Vegas Raiders: Dante Moore, QB, Oregon (60%)
  3. Tennessee Titans: Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State (50%)
  4. Cleveland Browns: Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana (39%)
  5. New York Jets: Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama (32%)
  6. Arizona Cardinals: Spencer Fano, OT, Utah (50%)
  7. New Orleans Saints: Rueben Bain, EDGE, Miami (33%)
  8. Washington Commanders: Keldric Faulk, EDGE, Auburn (31%)
  9. Cincinnati Bengals: Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State (25%)
  10. Los Angeles Rams: Francis Mauigoa, OT, Miami (25%)

Which one of these quarterbacks will go in the third round? Which quarterback not pictured will shoot into the top 10? Which player will we look back upon and laugh about their first-round projection, and which player will we be shocked wasn’t considered a surefire top-10 pick?

Why am I asking you all these questions?

We’ll find out the answers in due time, but until then, we’ll keep speculating, if for no other reason than to have fun talking about football.