Some New York Jets fans are all-in on the tank, whether it’s #TankFerNando, #TankForTy, or the latest edition of #SuckForTheDuck.

Other Jets fans couldn’t care less about tanking; Aaron Glenn would seemingly agree with them.

Any stance is the right stance. There is no “correct” way to be a fan, nor is their a definitive best path to success for the Jets.

If you’re all aboard the tank, follow along as we map out the Jets’ path to climb up the draft board.

Jets’ path to the #1 pick by the end of Week 16

The Jets have a chance to move into the first overall pick by the end of Sunday’s games.

Here is how the draft order looks as of Dec. 20:

  1. New York Giants: 2-12 (.536 SOS)
  2. Las Vegas Raiders: 2-12 (.548)
  3. Tennessee Titans: 2-12 (.575)
  4. Cleveland Browns: 3-11 (.485)
  5. New York Jets: 3-11 (.536)
  6. Arizona Cardinals: 3-11 (.570)
  7. New Orleans Saints: 4-10 (.492)
  8. Washington Commanders: 4-10 (.508)
  9. Cincinnati Bengals: 4-10 (.523)
  10. LA Rams via Atlanta: 5-9 (.500)

Given that their strength of schedule is equal to or lower than each of the three teams with worse outright records, the Jets are in an excellent position to climb the draft board.

The Jets’ SOS (.536) is lower than that of the Tennessee Titans (.575) and Las Vegas Raiders (.548), meaning the Jets would win a tiebreaker against either team as things currently stand.

The Jets’ margin over Tennessee (9.5 games) should be large enough for New York to preserve the tiebreaker through the end of the season, barring a miracle in which the Titans get a near-perfect string of outcomes to go their way. Las Vegas is close enough (3.0 games) to have a more realistic chance of surpassing the Jets, but the margin is wide enough that the Jets are in a good spot to maintain the advantage.

Meanwhile, the Jets’ SOS is tied with that of the Giants’ (.536) thanks to the Steelers’ Monday night win over the Dolphins. That means the Jets essentially have a 50-50 shot to claim a potential tiebreaker over the Giants, depending on the results of specific games that affect the two teams’ SOS.

However, the Jets’ SOS is far higher than that of the Browns (12.0 games), too much higher for the Jets to have a chance of taking the tiebreaker (it’s technically possible, but the Jets would need every single one of 26 specific outcomes to go their way; it’s not happening). Thus, the Jets must have an outright worse record than the Browns to jump them in the draft order.

It is worth noting that the Cardinals are also tied with the Browns and Jets, but Arizona’s .570 SOS should be far enough behind the Jets’ .536 (8.5 games) for New York to retain the advantage. So, the Cardinals are not an imminent threat to beat the Jets in a tiebreaker (although it is technically still possible, similar to Tennessee).

With a Jets loss and wins by the Browns, Raiders, Titans, and Giants, the Jets would move into a tie for the first overall pick by the end of Week 16. The Jets would at least possess the third overall pick, and depending on the results of SOS tiebreakers, they could move as high as first.

Here are the outcomes New York needs to have a chance of claiming the first overall pick by the end of Week 16:

  • Jets loss @ Saints
  • Giants win vs. Vikings
  • Titans win vs. Chiefs
  • Browns win vs. Bills
  • Raiders win @ Texans

This scenario would leave the top of the draft board as follows:

  1. New York Giants: 3-12
  2. Las Vegas Raiders: 3-12
  3. Tennessee Titans: 3-12
  4. New York Jets: 3-12

Then, it would just come down to SOS tiebreakers.

The Titans cannot threaten the Jets in this department, at least not this week (and it would take astronomical luck to pull it off even over the course of all three weeks). That means the primary focuses are the Giants (tied with Jets) and the Raiders (3.0 games back of Jets).

Courtesy of Tankathon, here are the specific games that will affect the SOS margins between the Jets and the Giants/Raiders. Each star represents a half-game’s worth in the Jets’ favor (i.e. one win for the schedule of the Giants/Raiders or one loss for the Jets’ schedule). Thus, the more stars, the more weight the game holds in the Jets’ respective SOS battles.

The good news for the Jets is that most of these games overlap. Here is a list of games to root for that affect the Jets’ SOS tiebreakers against the Giants and/or Raiders, ranked by the combined weight between the Jets’ SOS tiebreaker races against both teams:

  • 3-star (1.5 games): Lions win vs. Steelers (2★ NYG, 1★ LV)
  • 3-star (1.5 games): Browns win vs. Bills (2★ LV, 1★ NYG)
  • 2-star (1.0 game): Bengals win @ Dolphins (1★ NYG, 1★ LV)
  • 2-star (1.0 game): Chiefs win @ Titans (1★ NYG, 1★ LV)
  • 2-star (1.0 game): Cardinals win vs. Falcons (1★ NYG, 1★ LV)
  • 2-star (1.0 game): Broncos win vs. Jaguars (1★ NYG, 1★ LV)
  • 2-star (1.0 game): Chargers win @ Cowboys (2★ LV)
  • 1-star (0.5 games): Giants win vs. Vikings (1★ LV)
  • 1-star (0.5 games): Raiders win @ Texans (1★ NYG)
  • 0-star, but worth rooting for regardless due to Colts pick and greater importance of Giants tiebreaker: 49ers win vs. Colts (1★ NYG, -1★ LV)

The great news is that wins by the Giants and Raiders, which the Jets want to happen anyway, would both help the Jets in their respective SOS battles, too.

I included a 49ers win over the Colts as an outcome for Jets fans to root for despite it helping the Raiders, because the Jets own the Colts’ first-round pick, and it’s more important for the Jets to gain ground on the Giants, anyway, as they have a cushion over the Raiders.

With the SOS craziness covered, here is every Week 16 outcome that Jets fans should root for in pursuit of climbing the draft board:

  • Jets loss @ Saints
  • Giants win vs. Vikings
  • Titans win vs. Chiefs
  • Browns win vs. Bills
  • Raiders win @ Texans
  • Lions win vs. Steelers
  • Browns win vs. Bills
  • Bengals win @ Dolphins
  • Cardinals win vs. Falcons
  • Broncos win vs. Jaguars
  • Chargers win @ Cowboys
  • Giants win vs. Vikings
  • Raiders win @ Texans
  • 49ers win vs. Colts

To be clear, the Jets do not need every one of these games to go their way to earn the No. 1 pick by the end of Week 16. They do need each of the five bolded games, but in terms of the SOS-related games, they just need enough games to go their way to beat out the Giants.

Obviously, it’s unlikely that all of this goes the Jets’ way, but there are still two weeks to go. The more ground they can cover this week, the better for their hopes of the No. 1 pick moving forward.

Would the No. 1 pick cure all the Jets’ woes? Is there even a quarterback worth taking first overall? Do they actually need to climb the draft board to be successful? Is it worth them losing more games to climb the board if it means their current coaches and players are proving worse and worse at winning football games?

The answers to all of those questions will remain subjective until the end of time. I’ll tell you one thing, though: It’s a ton of fun running through the scenarios. Well, at least when there aren’t any playoff scenarios to discuss. Those would undoubtedly be more fun, but I’ll take the consolation prize.

Hey, we need something to talk about.