An obvious rebuild has begun for an AFC East team. It’s just not the one many think it is.
With the trade of wide receiver Jaylen Waddle, the Miami Dolphins have taken on over $170 million in dead money for the upcoming year. Other stars like Tua Tagovailoa, Bradley Chubb, and Tyreek Hill were also shown the door this offseason.
While many analysts believed the New York Jets would be the team pushing for the top pick of the 2027 draft, the Dolphins have stepped in with a much more blatant plan.
That brings both good and bad news for a Jets team that has taken strides since the start of free agency. Armed with four top-45 picks in the upcoming NFL draft, New York’s roster will look drastically different from last year’s three-win iteration—even if all eyes will be on an expected “tank-off” between the two AFC East rivals.
Good news: Jets can still get their QB in 2027
Led by a new GM and head coach, Miami moved quickly to clear out the roster. Many fans and analysts believe they will have one of the most talentless rosters in the league this season. That could give the Dolphins a chance to jump the Jets for one of the top quarterbacks in a deep 2027 draft class.
The good news for the Jets is that Miami’s tanking efforts will be inconsequential to them. The 2027 rookie quarterback class is expected to have many top arms coming out of college. Arch Manning, Dante Moore, LaNorris Sellers, and a plethora of other athletes comprise the stacked list.
No matter where the Jets end up picking, they should feel confident they can get their future starting quarterback, especially with three first-round picks at their disposal.
With two extra first-rounders coming in from Indianapolis and Dallas (the better of Dallas and Green Bay’s picks), the Jets not only have three shots at a high pick, but they will have the assets to trade up if necessary.
Bad news: All rebuilding moves will be tied to a rival
New York is not in the same stage of rebuilding as Miami. The Jets are a year ahead of their division rival.
The difficult part coming for the Jets, though, is that every move they make going forward will be tied to what Miami is doing. Both teams will likely be looking for a new quarterback next season and will have ample cap space to work with.
Everything New York does will now be tied to their rival down south. If the Jets add too many quality players and win too many games, there will be fans and analysts who wonder if their rival will end up leapfrogging them for the best quarterback in the 2027 draft.
Should the Dolphins find success next year, the Jets will be criticized for taking longer to rebuild than a team that just began the process.
It’s a lose-lose scenario for a team that needs to focus on itself, not on the outside noise.
Good news: Dolphins’ dead-cap charges exceed New York’s
Many Jets fans are wary of the fact that the organization has carried such a large dead cap into 2026—over $104 million, according to Spotrac.
That pales in comparison to the over $175 million owed to players not on the Dolphins roster next season, though. Miami’s rebuild goal is clearly to scrap everything from the previous regime that brought regular-season success but failed to win in the playoffs.
New York hasn’t been to the playoffs in 15 years. But moving on from their dead cap number should be relatively easy over the next few months compared to their division rival.
The Jets also still have over $40 million in cap space to work with in 2026. Miami, meanwhile, is the only NFL team over the salary cap. New York’s financial situation is sound, despite the dead cap number.
Bad news: Miami has a recruiting advantage
Ask a player who is expected to command a large contract in free agency where he would like to play between two states: one with a state income tax over 10%, or one without any income tax at all?
Tyreek Hill was upfront about his preference in 2022.
The Jets’ everlasting challenge is that, while their facility is close to New York City, they are at a financial disadvantage compared to teams in states with lower tax rates. The Dolphins are among those teams. Miami is also a strong recruiting location for athletes looking to play in warm weather.
The Dolphins may be rebuilding, but it should be easier for them to attract top talent simply because of their location than for a team based in New Jersey.
Good news: Receiver options remain available
Miami shipping Waddle to the Denver Broncos has unintended consequences for one of the top teams in the conference last year.
Denver has too many mouths to feed out wide.
Waddle joins a receiver room with Troy Franklin, Marvin Mims, and Courtland Sutton. With so many quality receivers on the roster, it would make sense for the Broncos to try to move one of them to at least balance out their passing offense.
The Jets, with a clear need at receiver, would be smart to call the defending AFC West champions to see what it would cost for one of their receivers.
Bad news: No excuses for 2026
New York hasn’t finished with a division record over .500 since the 2010 season. They haven’t won more than two division games since 2015. Their struggles in the AFC East are well-documented.
There will be no excuse for the team not to get at least two wins in 2026. Miami, even with Malik Willis at quarterback, is in for a rough season. The Jets have drastically improved over the last few weeks.
One of the key goals Gang Green must accomplish in 2026 is to post a respectable record in division games. If they can do that, they will have taken a step toward becoming a stable franchise again.
Anything less, and Jets fans won’t be very forgiving.
