The New York Jets need a quarterback and have plenty of cap space.
Thus, it stands to reason that they will explore the possibility of pursuing Malik Willis, perhaps the highest-upside quarterback slated for free agency in 2026.
Should the Jets make an aggressive bid for the 26-year-old signal-caller?
Let’s unpack his resume and his potential scheme fit under Frank Reich to find out.
Malik Willis’ career trajectory
Willis was chosen by the Tennessee Titans with the 86th overall pick in the third round of the 2022 NFL draft.
The Liberty product was slated to be the backup and developmental project behind veteran starter Ryan Tannehill, who was entering his age-34 season.
Willis started three games in his rookie year, and the results were disastrous. He finished his rookie season completing 31 of 61 passes (50.8%) for 276 yards (4.5 yards per attempt), no touchdowns, and three interceptions. He also took 10 sacks for 49 yards.
Overall, Willis had a 42.8 passer rating and a 13.3 QBR, while averaging 3.2 net yards per pass attempt. It was a ghastly start, even relative to the low expectations of a third-round rookie.
Willis’ poor rookie season allowed the Titans to feel comfortable using a second-round pick on Will Levis in the 2023 draft. Levis usurped Willis as the Titans’ second-string quarterback, and he started all nine games that were not started by Tannehill in 2023.
In his second season, Willis made just one extended appearance, briefly filling in during a game against the Ravens. It was another ugly performance, as Willis finished with just as many sacks as completions (4).
Willis’ stock had plummeted after his first two seasons. In August 2024, Willis was traded to the Green Bay Packers for a seventh-round pick in the 2025 draft.
Since arriving in Green Bay, Willis’ career has flipped on a dime. Across limited opportunities, he has been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the NFL over the past two seasons.
From 2024-25, Willis made 11 appearances and started three games, leading the Packers to a 2-1 record. In a Packer uniform, he completed 70 of 89 passes (78.7%) for 972 yards (10.9 yards per attempt), six touchdowns, and no interceptions. His passer rating in Green Bay was 134.6. Oh, and don’t forget about his 42 carries for 261 yards and three touchdowns.
In total, Willis had nine touchdowns and two turnovers (those being lost fumbles) with the Packers. Taking sacks was still an issue, as he absorbed 11 of them (9.3% of dropbacks), but even after accounting for his sacks, he generated an otherworldly 9.2 net yards per pass attempt. For perspective, the qualified league leader in that category was Drake Maye at 7.8.
It’s an utterly stunning night-and-day turnaround for a quarterback prospect who was valued at a seventh-round pick after two NFL seasons. In Tennessee, Willis barely looked like he belonged in the NFL. Suddenly, in Green Bay, he has been posting video game numbers.
The sample size is small, but it’s large enough to demand attention when the production is that stellar. The man is completing nearly 80% of his passes for north of 10 yards a pop. Those numbers would be mesmerizing in a single game, let alone across the 118 total dropbacks he played for the Packers.
Market outlook
Willis’ absurd production in Green Bay, coupled with his youth (26 going on 27), has him slated to be the most coveted quarterback in the 2026 free agent market.
Willis will not suddenly become one of the highest-paid quarterbacks in football, given how small his sample size of quality production is, but he will likely be paid quite handsomely. It’s extremely rare to see an ascending quarterback in his mid-twenties hit the free agent market. There will be plenty of QB-needy teams willing to invest in the upside that Willis displayed as a Packer.
Considering that Green Bay is already committed to Jordan Love, it seems highly unlikely that Willis returns to the team. The franchise tag is out of the question, as it is valued at $47.3 million for quarterbacks, per Over The Cap. The Packers would have to sign him to a new deal. Given how much interest he will command from other teams, they will probably be priced out.
Here’s the deal: A 26-year-old quarterback is going to be on the open market after accruing a 134.6 passer rating on 100-plus dropbacks over the past two seasons. That’s a rare amount of upside to find on the free agent quarterback market, so the bidding could get intense.
Spotrac estimates Willis’ market value to be $35.5 million per year, citing comparisons to the recent contracts signed by Sam Darnold ($33.5 million), Baker Mayfield ($33.3 million), and Geno Smith ($37.5 million).
That might be a stretch, given how limited Willis’ sample size is compared to those three quarterbacks. However, he is also younger than any of those three quarterbacks were when they signed, while the ceiling he has displayed is higher (in terms of peak statistical efficiency). Given that he’ll be on the open market in an offseason expected to be filled with quarterback turnover, it is not inconceivable that Willis’ price could soar that high.
A reasonable floor for Willis could be the contract signed by Justin Fields in 2025. Joining the Jets as a high-upside bridge quarterback, Fields signed a two-year, $40 million deal with $30 million guaranteed.
With these contract projections in mind, does Willis make sense as a target for the Jets?
The main question: How real is his breakout?
Nobody should expect Willis to sustain a 134.6 passer rating and 10.9 yards per attempt for his entire career. But even if he is 75% as efficient on a full-time basis, he would be an above-average starter.
With numbers that impressive over a sample size equivalent to about 3.5 games, there is a real chance that Willis could be blossoming into a quality starting quarterback.
There may even be an elite ceiling within Willis, but that would be gravy. Teams will happily sign up for the chance that Willis is the next Sam Darnold-esque signing, i.e., paying mid-level starter money in hopes that the player maintains a surprising breakout and performs like a top 10-15 starter.
This is the question teams must grapple with: How likely is it that Willis actually pulls that off?
It wasn’t long ago that Willis looked unplayable. His performance in Tennessee had him on the brink of being out of the NFL.
Suddenly, Willis started putting up 2011 Aaron Rodgers numbers.
Did Willis really improve that much overnight?
Probably not. The reality is that while Willis clearly improved as a player, his numbers were likely buoyed by his environment in Green Bay.
Willis was playing under a tremendous offensive coach in Matt LaFleur. In the same system, Jordan Love ranks second in the NFL in adjusted EPA per play over the last two seasons (0.251), trailing only Josh Allen. Love is obviously a great player, but his efficiency over the last two seasons is also an indicator of LaFleur’s ability to get the most out of his quarterback.
Any team looking to sign Willis has to feel confident that their coaching staff can maximize his abilities as effectively as one of the best offensive minds in the league. If they have a quality offensive coaching staff in place and can build a system around Willis that is similar to the one he had in Green Bay, then they can feel pretty confident that Willis will be a quality starter for them.
Are the Jets that team?
Does Willis fit with the Jets?
Before evaluating Willis’ potential fit with the Jets, we need to understand what worked so well for him in Green Bay.
Understanding Willis’ Packers scheme
Here is a breakdown of the route types that Willis targeted across his two seasons in Green Bay (percentage of total pass attempts). The route types are sorted based on Willis’ target rate differential compared to the 2025 NFL average.
The first thing that stands out is that LaFleur let Willis take plenty of vertical shots. Willis targeted go routes at nearly double the NFL average rate. He was extremely effective on those, completing 9 of 14 attempts (64.3%) for 318 yards, a touchdown, and no interceptions.
When Willis wasn’t chucking bombs, LaFleur kept things simple for him. Willis threw a very high rate of screens, along with above-average rates of quick outs and swings.
LaFleur did not ask Willis to do much work over the middle of the field. Willis had very low target rates on drags, posts, and slants, which all break toward the middle. He also generally avoided in/dig routes, the most common in-breaking route in the league.
The Packers included Willis in their rushing attack. He averaged 7.0 rush attempts per game across his three starts in Green Bay. However, it’s worth noting that 11 of his 21 rushes were scrambles, while only 10 were designed, giving him 3.3 designed rushes per game. So, designed runs for Willis were certainly a part of the game plan, but they were not necessarily a fixture.
It is also critical to note the importance of play action in Willis’ success. Willis used play action on a whopping 36.4% of his Packers dropbacks, per Pro Football Focus. For perspective, this would have ranked second among qualified quarterbacks in 2025, trailing only league MVP Matthew Stafford (36.8%).
Pre-snap motion is another core component of the Packers’ offense. In 2025, Green Bay ranked 10th with a 60.8% pre-snap motion rate.
So, how does all of this fit into Frank Reich’s offensive scheme?
Not tremendously, to put it lightly.
Projecting Willis in the Jets’ offense
Seen below is a side-by-side comparison between the route distribution of Reich’s offenses from 2021-23 and Willis’ route distribution from 2024-25. You can see that they are significantly different in almost every area.
The most glaring issue is the discrepancy in go route frequency.
The go route was Reich’s second-least-favorite route compared to the 2025 NFL average across his three most recent seasons as a head coach (-1.4% versus the 7.9% league average). This would be problematic for Willis, as the go route was the crux of his success in Green Bay. Willis threw go routes more than twice as frequently as Reich’s last three offenses.
Another major issue is that Reich loves targeting in-breakers. Reich’s two favorite routes relative to the league average were the in/dig route (+2.2%) and the drag route (+1.4%), both of which Willis generally avoided.
Looking at Willis’ route distribution chart, it is apparent that LaFleur wanted Willis to focus on working either deep or behind the line of scrimmage. If he wasn’t throwing a go route, there was a high probability that he threw a screen or a checkdown (quick out or swing).
This is the polar opposite of Reich’s offenses. Reich targeted deep passes and behind-the-LOS passes at below-average rates, while he emphasized the short-to-intermediate range.
Here is a comparison of Willis’ target distribution by route depth versus Reich’s offenses from 2021-23.
You can see that Reich’s offenses typically operate in the opposite fashion to the Willis-led Packers offense.
The yin-and-yang route distribution is not the only issue for Willis’ potential fit in New York. It is also problematic that Reich used play action at a very low rate across his most recent stops.
The 2022 Colts had a 16.3% play action rate. At his next head coaching stop, Reich took another step back, as the 2023 Panthers had a 13.3% rate.
In fairness to Reich, he has shown a willingness to use play action in the past. The 2021 Colts, quarterbacked by Carson Wentz, had a 32.5% rate.
That was an outlier, though. Reich’s previous three Colts teams came nowhere close to 32.5%. Overall, his teams’ average play action rate across his six seasons as a head coach was 21.5%. Not only is that well behind Willis’ sky-high 36.4% rate in Green Bay, but it isn’t even up to the 2025 NFL average (23.1%).
To top it all off, Reich is way behind the times when it comes to pre-snap motion, which LaFleur used at an above-average rate this past season.
The Jets would require significant scheme changes to accommodate Willis
In a vacuum, Willis should make sense for the Jets.
New York needs a quarterback. The ideal solution for a team in their position would be to draft one in the first round, but the Jets are in an unfortunate spot there.
They did not land the No. 1 overall pick, which will likely prevent them from taking Fernando Mendoza, who is widely considered the only quarterback in the 2026 class who is worthy of a top-10 pick. After Mendoza, there is believed to be a large drop-off.
The Jets could target Alabama’s Ty Simpson, but taking him with either of their first-round picks (No. 2 or No. 16) would be a risky gamble based on Simpson’s profile. After Simpson, the rest of the class is filled with dart-throw projects.
Thus, with no undeniably appealing quarterback options in the draft, it makes sense to turn to the veteran market—specifically, free agency, where the Jets have oodles of cap space and would not have to part with valuable draft capital to land a player.
Willis will be expensive, which isn’t ideal for a Jets team that is already due to commit $57 million to Aaron Rodgers and Justin Fields this season (although some of Fields’ dead money can be kicked to 2027 with a post-June 1 cut). But can Aaron Glenn really afford to hitch his job security to a mediocre stopgap like Jacoby Brissett, Joe Flacco, or Carson Wentz?
Probably not. Glenn needs an irrefutably successful 2026 season to save his job after a nightmarish 2025 season. And if his coaching purge was any indication, Glenn is ready to go down swinging.
Thus, an all-out free agent pursuit for an ascending 26-year-old quarterback would seem to make plenty of sense.
Willis’ floor is low, and it is unclear how likely it is that he ultimately becomes a reliable 17-game-per-year starter in the NFL. But for a Jets team that cannot get any worse (at quarterback or otherwise), the risk is worthwhile to bet on the incredible ceiling that Willis showed in Green Bay.
The problem is Frank Reich.
His outdated scheme is not built to accommodate Willis’ strengths and weaknesses. The system that worked for Willis under LaFleur could hardly be more different from the tendencies that Reich displayed at his recent coaching stops.
Whether Willis is the Jets’ quarterback or not, Reich needs to modernize his play-calling, play designs, and overall philosophies for New York to have any chance of success. In terms of modernization, the Jets clearly regressed by going from the 42-year-old Tanner Engstrand to the 64-year-old Reich.
We shouldn’t write off a Reich resurgence, though. He’s been a successful coach in the past. Perhaps Reich has learned from the mistakes of his recent NFL failures and is prepared to bring a completely revamped vision to the Jets’ offense in 2026—one that is unrecognizable from the systems he ran in Indianapolis and Charlotte.
If that is the case, maybe Willis could fit in New York, after all. Reich’s biggest issues included low usage of pre-snap motion, low usage of play action, and a low frequency of deep shots. Should he recognize those deficiencies and focus on improving them, he would not only modernize his scheme, but also make the Jets’ offense a more compatible landing spot for Willis.
Pursuing Willis would make sense for the Jets if Reich is returning to the NFL with plans to modernize his offense. But if Reich plans on running a similar offense to the ones he’s overseen in the recent past, the Jets should steer clear of Willis.
Willis is an appealing young talent; he is trending up and has displayed a lofty ceiling. However, he is going to command an exorbitant price for such an unreliable player (based on his low floor and small sample size of success). To justify the investment it will take to acquire him, it is essential to have a situation that is tailor-made to maximize his abilities.
The Jets won’t be able to offer that situation with a traditional Frank Reich scheme.
