The New York Jets’ 2026 schedule has arrived, which means it’s time for fans and analysts alike to start announcing their predictions (which will certainly change at least five times before Week 1).
There is often a lot of groupthink when it comes to schedule predictions. Many predictors tend to agree on where the “tough stretches” and “soft spots” of a schedule are.
But the NFL is as unpredictable a sport as there is. “Any Given Sunday,” as they say, right?
Yet, few schedule predictions take this to heart and display the guts to predict results that make little sense on paper… even though it actually makes even less sense to predict that nothing unpredictable will happen.
In any event, here are three games on the Jets’ 2026 schedule that are widely being chalked up as likely losses for New York but are actually much more winnable than people realize. This is not a guarantee or a prediction that the Jets will win these games, mind you.
Week 2 vs. Green Bay
A home opener against the Packers seems cruel in the eyes of some Jets fans, especially coming off a road season-opener against a head coach striving for vengeance.
But the Jets may have caught the Packers at the right time.
Superstar edge rusher Micah Parsons may begin the season on the PUP list as he continues his recovery from a December ACL tear. If that is the case, New York would be hosting the Packers in their most vulnerable form.
The Packers were only 4-4-1 on the road last season; 4-5-1 if you include the playoffs.
Without Parsons, the Packers finished the season 0-3, plus a playoff loss. They also lost the game in which Parsons was injured, blowing a second-half lead, which brings their true Parsons-less record to 0-5.
Four of those five losses were on the road. That’s an 0-4 record without Parsons.
If there is a perfect time and place for the Jets to face the Packers, it’s at MetLife Stadium within the first two weeks of the season.
Week 4 at Chicago
Going on the road against an 11-6 Bears team that ran to the divisional round last year seems like a daunting task, especially coming off another NFC North road game against the Lions.
Chicago, though, is one of the NFL’s top regression candidates this year.
The Bears went 11-6 despite having a point differential of just +26, which suggests they should have been expected to win 9.1 games, per Pro Football Reference. Chicago’s point differential ranked seventh in the NFC and third in their own division.
What the Bears did last season does not feel sustainable. They won an NFL-record six games in which they trailed in the final two minutes of regulation.
It required plenty of luck for Chicago to get that done. The Bears recovered 57.5% of fumbles (ninth-highest) and enjoyed an opponent field goal percentage of 77.3% (third-lowest). Will these things happen again? Probably not. Can the Bears control whether they happen again? Absolutely not.
To sustain their 11-6 record, the Bears have to actually play like an 11-win team, which would require significant improvement upon their 2025 performance. That is certainly possible as Caleb Williams seeks another leap in his third season. But it is also possible that Williams plateaus.
Chicago hasn’t yet earned the right to be viewed as a chalked-up loss, even for a team as unproven as the Jets. This isn’t to say that the Bears shouldn’t be viewed as heavy favorites in this game, but it is a stretch to say that the Jets have no shot of coming out victorious.
Week 14 vs. Denver Broncos
The Broncos appear formidable after a 14-3 season and a run to the AFC championship game. Like the Bears, though, they could be headed for regression this year.
Of the Broncos’ 17 games last season, 13 were decided by one score. They went 11-2 in those games. They only claimed three multi-score victories, and all of those came at home.
All eight of the Broncos’ road games were decided by one score. Denver went 6-2 in those games.
The bottom line is that most of Denver’s games went down to the wire, including all of their road games. So, it’s not as if they are an unstoppable machine that cannot be contained. The Jets will probably have a chance to win the game in the fourth quarter.
The differentiator that typically allowed the Broncos to prevail in close games was their pass rush. With a league-high 68 sacks (11 more than the closest team), it was usually Denver that made the game-sealing play.
While the Jets do not have a pass rush on Denver’s level, what they do have is a high-ceiling group of pass-blocking offensive linemen who can counter the Broncos’ pass rush.
Forget about the nine sacks that Denver racked up on Justin Fields last year; many of those were Fields’ fault. With a competent veteran quarterback under center in Geno Smith, the Jets’ offensive line will have a realistic shot this time around.
New York’s pass protection is one of the greatest strengths on the entire roster, and arguably the greatest strength on offense. For that reason, they should match up well against teams like Denver that count on the pass rush to close out victories.
If the Jets’ offensive line can neutralize Denver’s pass rush, the Broncos will lose the advantage that allowed them to squeak by in so many close games last year. Suddenly, a 14-3 team turns into a coin-flip team that could win or lose any game based on a bounce or two.
Matchups against teams like the Broncos will highlight the value of New York’s sturdy pass protection. For Jets fans, it is especially encouraging because of the unit’s collective youth. Looking to the future, that pass protection could be the anchor of the Jets’ success for years to come.
A late-season home win over Denver, even if it doesn’t contribute to a playoff push in the present, would be an exciting preview of the brand of offensive football to come in 2027 and beyond.
