You’ve heard what OG draft pundits like Mel Kiper Jr. think. You’ve heard what today’s most respected and plugged-in draft analysts, like Daniel Jeremiah, think.

Heck, you’ve even heard what Jets X-Factor thinks.

Now it’s time to ask the numbers who they think the New York Jets will select in the 2026 NFL draft.

The National Football League’s official website features a section called “NFL IQ” that displays analytical information about each team’s offseason. Part of that section is a projection showing the prospects estimated to have the highest chance of being drafted by the team.

Who is the NFL’s official website projecting the Jets to draft, you might ask?

Here are the top five candidates to be chosen by New York in the first round, whether it is with the second or 16th overall picks:

  1. Arvell Reese, LB, Ohio State (28%)
  2. Makai Lemon, WR, USC (10%)
  3. Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State (9%)
  4. Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama (8%)
  5. David Bailey, EDGE, Texas Tech (4%)

Four of those five names are not unfamiliar to mock-hungry Jets fans, but Ty Simpson’s appearance at this stage of the draft cycle is mildly surprising.

For most of the 2025 college football season, Simpson was frequently pegged to the Jets in mock drafts with a top-five pick, depending on where the Jets stood at the time. Even when the 0-7 Jets held the first pick around mid-season, Simpson was in the conversation.

Then, a late-season slide from Simpson tanked his stock to where it stands now: that of a borderline first or second-round prospect. Thus, Simpson has been completely eliminated from contention for the Jets’ second overall pick, and he is only considered a wild card for the 16th pick.

This is all speculation, though. The Jets need a quarterback as much as any organization in professional football. If they hold Simpson in a high regard, they could draft him in an earlier slot than many people expect. That could entail using the 16th pick, or it could entail a trade-up into the late-first round.

As Jets X-Factor’s Joe Blewett illustrated, Simpson’s early-season film in 2025 justified the hype of a potential first-round quarterback prospect. If the Jets believe strongly enough in the peaks that Simpson displayed, they could easily see him as a first-round prospect.

Few mock drafters expect it, but the numbers provided by the official NFL website argue it is far more feasible than many are willing to admit.