Geno Smith led the NFL with 17 interceptions in 2025.
That number is a big reason why many analysts, and even a sizable chunk of New York Jets fans, are not high on Smith’s outlook going into 2026 as he returns to Florham Park.
But did he really earn that number?
Pro Football Focus doesn’t think so.
The NFL analytics website named Smith the unluckiest quarterback of the 2025 season based on how many interceptions he recorded versus how many he was expected to have.
According to PFF’s analysis, Smith threw 4.7 more interceptions than he would be expected to have based on his number of turnover-worthy throws.
“The ugliest interception total in football during the 2025 season was largely driven by variance. Smith recorded 18 turnover-worthy throws — hardly an extreme figure relative to his volume — but 12 of them became interceptions, producing a 66.7% conversion rate that sat nearly 18 percentage points above the league average,” wrote PFF.
“The bad luck didn’t stop there. Smith also threw five interceptions on non-turnover-worthy plays, well above the roughly 3.4 expected based on league-average rates. Altogether, his 17-interception season paints a far harsher picture than the underlying process suggests. Under league-average interception luck, Smith’s season profiles far more like a 12- or 13-interception campaign than the 17 interceptions attached to his name in the official record.”
As the Jets hope for a bounce-back season from Smith, this analysis is a legitimate reason to believe a rebound is not just plausible, but perhaps likely. If Smith maintains the same process as he did last season—even in a horrid situation with the Raiders—then he should be expected to throw significantly fewer interceptions.
That would bring Smith closer to the quarterback he was when he led the Seahawks to three straight winning seasons from 2022-24: a result New York has not achieved since 2015.
