Succeeding in the modern NFL requires a quarterback and his play-caller to be on the same page schematically.
There are only a few players in today’s game who can thrive regardless of the scheme, and New York Jets quarterback Geno Smith isn’t one of them, meaning his connection with offensive coordinator Frank Reich will be crucial this season.
As our own Michael Nania broke down, the good news is that Smith’s strengths align perfectly with Reich’s play-calling tendencies.
Reich emphasizes in/dig routes (+2.2% vs. NFL average), while it is also Smith’s best route per EPA (+0.285 vs. NFL average). Reich also uses drag routes 1.4% more than the league average, where Smith also excels (+0.252). Hitch/Curl routes are also heavily featured in Reich’s system (17.9%), which is another of Smith’s strengths (+0.112 EPA).
The OC has historically relied less on post routes/go balls, which are weaker for Smith according to EPA.
Now, how does that align with the Jets’ WR1, Garrett Wilson?
How do Smith and Reich fit with Wilson?
The good news is that Wilson also aligns with the strengths of Reich and Smith.
Across his first four NFL seasons, Wilson has totaled 703 yards and four touchdowns on in/dig routes, averaging 21.3 yards per catch. On drag concepts, he has hauled in 20 of 29 targets for 205 yards while posting a strong 68.9% catch rate. On the other hand, he has consistently delivered on hitch/curl routes, posting 445 career yards on a 76.1% catch rate.
Throughout his career, Wilson has consistently won on intermediate breaking routes largely due to his shiftyness and elite body control. Unlike bigger-bodied X receivers, Wilson’s game is built on separation rather than on winning jump balls or making physical plays at the point of attack.
Smith is also the perfect quarterback to help Wilson produce more as a deep threat.
During his time with the Seattle Seahawks, Smith developed into one of the NFL’s best deep-ball QBs. In 2022, his 99.2 deep passing grade from Pro Football Focus on throws of 20-plus yards was the best among 29 qualified quarterbacks.
In 2023, his 95.6 mark was the sixth-best, while his 38.2% big-time throw rate on deep attempts finished as the league best. During the 2024 season, his 95.1 deep grade finished fourth.
On paper, there is a perfect fit between Reich, Smith, and Wilson.
Riech’s offense leans into the route concepts where Smith and Wilson have both thrived throughout their careers. Beyond that, though, perhaps the most intriguing element of this trio is what Smith could turn Wilson into as a deep threat.
If the quarterback is able to revert to the form that he displayed with the Seattle Seahawks, which is very plausible, he could unlock a new area of Wilson’s game. Wilson has never fully exploded downfield throughout his career, largely due to rocky quarterback play.
Smith not only has the potential to change that but also to turn Wilson into the best version of himself to date.
