At last, it happened: The David Bailey Breakout Game™.
In Sunday’s win over the Cleveland Browns, the New York Jets’ second overall pick finally looked like the game-wrecker that No. 2 picks are expected to eventually become. Bailey racked up three sacks, the most by a Jets rookie in 31 years, and all three were crucial in a 17-12 victory that was anchored by the defense.
A sigh of relief could be heard throughout the states of New York and New Jersey, as at least for one week, Jets fans’ concerns about the highest drafted defensive player in franchise history were put to rest.
Over his first four NFL games, Bailey’s performance could be best described as “fine”. He had been executing the fundamentals of his role quite well, but there was little pomp to his game, especially as a one-on-one pass rusher.
Jets fans had not seen many glimpses of the superstar pass-rush potential that you anticipate seeing from the first non-quarterback selected in a draft class. Worry had begun to accumulate that the Jets may have drafted a non-star with the No. 2 choice.
One game does not prove that Bailey has officially declared himself a superstar just yet, but it certainly puts him on the right track toward that destination. After all, he’s only five games into his career. Four games of growing pains should have been expected, and there will probably be more from here.
The hope, though, is that in time, performances like this one become increasingly consistent for Bailey. At the very least, Jets fans have finally seen a tangible vision of just how good Bailey can be. Now, it’s all about how consistently he can deliver these types of games.
The thing is, though, Jets fans might not be fully appreciating just how great Bailey was against Cleveland.
Jets fans shouldn’t overlook that Bailey’s breakout was about more than just sacks
The three sacks are the headliner, and it’s those three sacks that qualify a game as “dominant” in the eyes of the national media and most casual observers. The extent of Bailey’s dominance went far beyond just the “3.0” in the sack column, though.
According to Pro Football Focus, Bailey racked up nine total pressures, which is an astronomical single-game performance. For perspective, that is the fifth-best single-game total by any defensive player this season.
On top of his three sacks, Bailey racked up five hurries and one quarterback hit; that hit helped force a third-and-6 incompletion on Cleveland’s last-ditch attempt to drive for the game-winning score.
It is also critical to note the legitimacy of Bailey’s three sacks. While Bailey had two sacks over his first four games, both were chasedowns to the sideline for small losses, so they hardly qualify as “sacks” in a traditional sense even if they were positive plays for the defense. Against Cleveland, though, his sacks were legitimate.
One of Bailey’s sacks was unblocked, but he made an excellent finish in a one-on-one situation with Deshaun Watson; other Jets defenders whiffed on plenty of wide-open sack chances in this game, so those are no gimmes.
The other two, though, were Bailey’s first Grade A, organic, no-pesticides, “quality” sacks of the season. On the first, Bailey created push with a bull rush before peeling off to the inside and sacking Watson. Later, Bailey won with speed and explosiveness to the outside, bending the corner for a pretty, quick sack on Watson.
Here’s what really puts Bailey’s performance over the top, though: His impact went far beyond pass rushing.
Bailey thwarted two screen passes to running backs, stopping them for gains of 1 and 3 yards, respectively, with the first stop finishing off a three-and-out. He also had two run-game tackles short of the sticks that held the runners to a combined 4 yards.
That is what makes Bailey’s game truly exciting.
Bailey’s performance would have been hyped up in the proverbial tabloids even if the three sacks were the only ways he got involved across his 57 snaps, as the national media, even today, has an archaic obsession with sacks as if they are the only way that defensive ends contribute to a game.
That was not the case, though. Bailey constantly popped off the screen throughout the afternoon, getting his fingerprints all over the game in ways beyond just sacking the quarterback.
The thing is, though, Bailey had already been doing this before his breakout against Cleveland. Despite questions about his run defense and all-around game coming out of Texas Tech, Bailey was actually quite proficient as a run defender and coverage player over the first four weeks. His motor as a pass rusher also stood out, helping him rack up plenty of pressures on chasedowns.
Bailey was doing just about everything right besides the one thing he was drafted to do: win one-on-one pass-rush reps at an elite level.
On Sunday, Bailey finally tapped into the pass-rush ceiling that got him drafted second overall, and all the while, he maintained the surprisingly sound fundamentals that he had been displaying since his debut. The result was one of the most well-rounded single-game EDGE performances of the early NFL season.
When the Jets drafted Bailey, the widespread hope was that they would be getting a pass-rushing menace who could consistently generate 15+ sacks and multiple forced fumbles. If he added anything else, it would be gravy.
Now, though, Bailey’s ceiling suddenly appears much higher than anyone anticipated. What we saw on Sunday was an all-around game-wrecker who can find ways to ruin plays no matter what the offense calls or what assignment he is asked to handle.
It remains to be seen whether Bailey can tap into this level of play on a routine basis. Most NFL pass rushers are capable of having a massive performance now and then. What separates the league’s elite pass rushers is their ability to dominate week in, week out, even as opponents fixate on stopping them.
No player can record three sacks and nine pressures every week, but Bailey’s goal over the long haul is to raise his consistency to the point where he can at least register multiple quality wins on a weekly basis, avoiding long stretches of silence. He must raise his pass-rush win rate to the degree that even on his worst days, he makes a positive pass-rush impact.
For now, though, Jets fans should be ecstatic about the ceiling that has been displayed by their team’s second overall pick. Bailey’s potential is no longer hypothetical: we’ve seen it in action.
And not only is that ceiling real, it’s also higher than anticipated. Bailey has the stuff of not just a dominant pass rusher, but a dominant football player.
