What NY Jets fans are probably missing about David Bailey

Relative to the lofty expectations of being the second overall draft pick, David Bailey’s first three games with the New York Jets have been somewhat underwhelming in certain ways.

The explosive edge rusher already has two sacks, which looks good on paper, but both were chase-downs on scramble drills for one-yard losses. Outside of those, Bailey hasn’t recorded many highlights as a pass rusher off the edge; he has gone quiet for long stretches in that area.

That does not mean he is playing poorly, though.

The Jets have deployed Bailey in all sorts of ways as an outside linebacker in their hybrid defensive scheme. To the surprise of some critics, who may have expected him to be a one-note player in the NFL (especially in his rookie year), Bailey has made the most of his versatile role, finding all different ways to make a positive impact—even as he develops his pass rushing.

Let’s state it bluntly: Bailey has certainly struggled as a pass rusher, and he has a long way to go in that area before he starts to justify his status as a No. 2 overall pick. According to Pro Football Focus, his 4.5% pass-rush win rate ranks 66th among the 70 edge defenders with at least 50 pass-rush snaps this season.

Still, when you turn on the film, it’s hard not to notice Bailey constantly getting his fingerprints on the game.

The Jets’ latest contest against the Detroit Lions provided multiple examples of how Bailey has managed to be a net-positive player despite his lackluster pass rushing thus far.

David Bailey flashes his all-around game in Detroit

The highlight of Bailey’s outing in Detroit was a well-rounded three-play sequence in the fourth quarter. Bailey made two straight tackles against the run, followed by a solid rep in coverage, to set up a fourth-and-1 stop by Kingsley Enagbare.

On Detroit’s opening drive of the game, Bailey locked down Sam LaPorta in coverage to force Jared Goff into eating a sack from Andre Cisco.

David Bailey’s floor is rising rapidly

If I told you before the season that Bailey would have a 4.5% pass-rush win rate through three games, you would probably think that he might be the NFL’s greatest liability on the edge.

Coming out of Texas Tech, Bailey’s athletic traits and pass-rush ceiling were undeniable; the questions concerned his all-around game, especially his run defense. Ultimately, the Jets selected Bailey over Ohio State’s Arvell Reese primarily because of his pass-rush ceiling, whereas Reese was touted as a better all-around outside linebacker with more rawness as a pass rusher.

The prevailing belief was that Bailey would enter the NFL as an explosive downhill edge rusher who might need time to develop the other aspects of his game. So, if he were to fail to live up to that pass-rush ceiling, it would have been reasonable to expect that things could get ugly.

Yet, three weeks in, the Jets are essentially getting the experience that many thought they’d get by selecting Reese.

Bailey’s pass rushing is a major work in progress. Nonetheless, the Jets are finding ways to squeeze impact out of Bailey by putting him in a role that lets him run all over the field and make the most of his physical gifts. Bailey has acquitted himself well, showing much better edge-setting chops and coverage fundamentals than anyone could have realistically expected.

Despite the lack of pass-rush wins, Bailey has racked up some impressive numbers in other facets. He is tied for fourth among edge defenders with eight solo tackles against the run, while his 73.9 run defense grade (via PFF) ranks 12th out of 88 qualifiers at the position.

In coverage, Bailey has dropped back 15 times, earning a 77.8 coverage grade from PFF, good enough for fifth among edge defenders with at least 10 coverage snaps.

And in the passing game, while Bailey has struggled to record legitimate one-on-one wins, he has still gotten involved by using his motor to chase plays down.

Bailey is tied for 20th among edge defenders with 10 total pressures, per PFF. Again, that number is misleading as it pertains to his raw pass rushing execution thus far, but it shows that he has found ways to make his presence felt even when he isn’t winning one-on-one reps. That’s still a useful skill, even if it isn’t as valuable as pure pass rushing.

It should also be noted that Bailey has already drawn two holding penalties this season. Toss in his forced fumble against the Packers, for good measure.

David Bailey’s long-term outlook

The first three games have done wonders for Bailey’s long-term floor in the NFL. He’s shown himself to be much more capable in non-pass-rush areas than a lot of people expected. If this is the worst version of Bailey that could possibly exist, he’s still a solid football player, even if the Jets certainly expect more from the No. 2 pick.

Perhaps more importantly, though, is how high Bailey’s ceiling has risen.

Look at the impact Bailey is already making while being a bottom-five starting edge rusher in terms of pass-rush win rate. He’s stuffing runs, drawing holds, setting up sacks and scrambles in coverage, and racking up pressures at a top-20 rate purely through his ability to chase plays down.

If he ever throws elite pass-rush consistency into that pot, he will be one of the most destructive defenders in the NFL.

Bailey’s pass-rush ceiling isn’t going anywhere. His top-tier athletic traits have been an obvious advantage on the NFL field, and his pass-rush skills can be seen all over his Texas Tech film. As long as he plays, he will always be a ticking time bomb for opposing offensive lines.

The question is whether he can learn how to win pass-rush reps in the NFL at a consistent enough rate to become one of the sport’s true game-wreckers. Right now, he’s far away from that. But he’s only played three games, and he deserves time to iron out his repertoire against NFL tackles. Penei Sewell is a little bit different than the guys Bailey faced at Kansas and Houston.

Time will tell how long it takes Bailey to reach his ceiling as a pass rusher, and how high that ceiling actually is. A start as cold as the one he’s had is at least mildly concerning, even if it’s too early to sound the alarms.

In the meantime, it’s a major positive for the Jets to see that Bailey can help them win games even while he develops his pass rushing. It raises his floor in the short-term, and over the long-term, it elevates his ceiling from “dominant pass rusher” to “dominant player”.