New York Jets free agent profile: Green Bay Packers RB Jamaal Williams

Jamaal Williams is a jack-of-all-trades running back who could be a fantastic bargain for the New York Jets. Positives Ball security There may not be a single running back in the NFL who can compare to Jamaal Williams when it comes to the fundamentals of the position. The BYU product has mastered the most unheralded aspects of playing running back. Let's start with Williams' ball security. He cradles the football as if it were his own child. Over 652 career touches (regular season and playoffs), he has never fumbled the ball. In 2020, the average NFL running back fumbled on 0.847% of their touches. If that rate were maintained over Williams' career total of 652 touches, it would result in a total of about 5.5 fumbles. So, that is approximately the total number of fumbles that Williams has saved compared to league-average throughout his four years in the league. Williams' total of 622 career regular season touches without a fumble stands as the most among active players and the most by any player in the Super Bowl era (since 1966). While it will be extremely difficult for him to hold that record until retirement, he will remain the best protector of the football among the league's running backs until proven otherwise. Pass protection Another fundamental facet of the position where Williams thrives is in pass protection. Over the course of his career, Williams has allowed 18 pressures over 267 snaps in protection, a rate of 6.7% that falls well below the 2020 league average for running backs (10.4%). Williams' career pass blocking grade at Pro Football Focus is a sparkling 76.6 (2020 position average: 53.1). In three straight seasons from 2017-19, Williams ranked top-10 in PFF's pass blocking grade among running backs with at least 30 protection snaps (a group that usually includes around 50 players). In 2020, he posted a career-low grade of 61.0, but that was still good enough for 13th-best out of 49 qualifiers. Green Bay made the most of Williams' talent in this area by deploying him in protection quite frequently. Williams ranked top-16 among running backs in protection snaps in three of the past four seasons. Drops Adding to his knack for avoiding big mistakes at a ridiculously good level, Williams has pillow-soft hands and catches almost everything that's thrown his way. Williams had a little bit of trouble with drops in his rookie season as he dropped three passes and caught 25 for a drop rate of 10.7%, higher than the 2020 positional average (7.4%). However, over his past three seasons, Williams has snagged 104 passes while dropping only three for a tremendous drop rate of 2.8%. Receiving productivity We've already discussed Williams' elite pass protection and hands, so we know that he checks two of the most important boxes required for a running back to thrive on third downs and in other obvious passing situations. He's got more to his receiving game than just the fundamentals, though. Williams is a very efficient receiving back. Over the course of his career (regular season), Williams has pulled in 122 of 155 targets for 961 yards, eight touchdowns, and 42 first downs. With 50 conversions on 155 targets, his conversion rate of 32.2% is well above the 2020 going rate for running backs (24.9%). He has surpassed the 24.9% mark in all four of his seasons. Williams has posted a positive receiving DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average, via Football Outsiders) in three of his four seasons. He ranked 16th out of 50 qualifiers with a +14.2% mark in 2020, and in 2019, he ranked seventh out of 49 qualifiers with a mark of +27.4%. Age Williams will turn 26 years old in April. His mileage is relatively low, as he has taken on a career average of 163.0 touches per season (10.2 per game). Scheme fit In a Packers offense coached by Matt LaFleur, brother of Jets offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur and a fellow disciple of the Shanahan coaching tree, Williams gained plenty of experience in the wide-zone run scheme that the Jets are likely to employ. Durability Williams has a reliable track record of durability, playing in 64 out of 68 (94.1%) possible regular season and playoff games for the Packers from 2017-20. All four of the missed games came over the past two regular seasons. Williams missed two games in 2019 at separate points of the year, one due to a concussion and one due to a shoulder injury. In 2020, he missed one game due to COVID-19 and another due to a quadriceps injury. Williams returned for the next game following all four of the aforementioned ailments. Negatives Elusiveness and explosiveness Williams' game is based around intelligence, fundamental soundness, and consistency rather than flair. He is not great when it comes to evading tacklers or producing enormous plays. As a rusher, Williams' career average of 0.105 broken tackles per carry is decently below the 2020 positional average of 0.141, while his career average of 2.59 yards after contact per carry is also below the 2020 positional average of 2.88. Williams posted marks of 0.116 and 2.72, respectively, in the 2020 season (playoffs included). In the passing game, Williams has averaged 0.194 broken tackles per reception, below the 2020 positional average of 0.215. He had a 0.200 mark this past season. The longest rush of Williams' career was a 45-yarder in 2019. Other than that, he doesn't even have another 30-yarder under his belt. Williams caught a 54-yard touchdown and a 30-yard touchdown as a rookie in 2017 but hasn't been able to snatch another 30-yard reception since. Look for Williams to provide the bulk of his impact through his fundamentals, and as a ball-carrier in both phases, he wins with consistent chunk gains and good vision rather than home runs and highlight-reel moves. Other notes Decent rushing production Williams' career production as a rusher isn't awful, but it isn't anywhere near eye-popping. He has carried the ball 500 times for 1,985 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 99 first downs. That's just 3.97 yards per carry - the 2020 NFL average for running backs was 4.38. With 109 conversions, his conversion rate of 21.8% is also below the 2020 positional average (23.7%). However, since LaFleur became the engineer of Green Bay's offense in 2019, Williams' rushing production - at least in the box score - has greatly improved. After averaging 3.72 yards per carry from 2017-18, Williams has averaged a far more respectable 4.27 yards per carry over the past two seasons. When it comes to DVOA, Williams has actually been above the median among qualifiers in all four of his career seasons despite his lackluster yardage numbers, but he has never quite been elite. 2020: +2.9% DVOA (22nd of 47 RBs with 100+ carries) 2019: -1.5% (21st of 45) 2018: +1.8% (22nd of 47) 2017: +7.4% (12th of 47) It's also worth noting that Williams was running behind a Packers offensive line that has been among the league's best, so it's not as if he was hampered behind a bad line and has untapped potential that could be unlocked behind a better one. His new team's offensive line will most likely be worse. You count on Williams for effective, better-than-average rushing, but he isn't a game-wrecker in this phase. Film How are we going to start off this film review of a running back? With a pass protection rep, of course! Williams' pass blocking makes him a fantastic asset for any offense on third downs. On a third third-and-5 play, Williams picks up the unblocked blitzing linebacker through the A-gap and completely stonewalls him, not giving up an inch of penetration from the point of contact. Thanks to Williams, Aaron Rodgers gets a pristine pocket that he uses to find Davante Adams for 48 yards. Rodgers and Adams get the glory and the fantasy points, but Williams' great block is the first domino that had to fall for this big play to happen. Williams' rushing game is built around his vision. He does a great job of scanning the field for any and all available lanes. Through this ability, the cutback is a big part of his game. Here, Williams faces congestion on the front side of the play, but he notices the backside defensive end crashing down hard, so he stops on a dime to let the defensive end take himself out of the play, opening up the cutback lane. Running behind a great Packers offensive line over the past few years, Williams has put his vision to good use as he has become adept in the art of maximizing good blocking. If his teammates block effectively and create a hole, Williams will find it. He will not put a well-blocked rep to waste by grabbing the ball and charging downhill into traffic (a la Frank Gore). When Williams takes this handoff, there is a gigantic hole in the left-side B-gap, but Williams knows he can't just dart through it right away with the unblocked middle linebacker lingering. Williams patiently presses the right-side A-gap to lure the linebacker inside, and once the linebacker bites, Williams cuts into the vacated outside hole, evading a tackler on his way to 18 yards. I love the vision from Williams on this run. A gigantic hole in the A-gap is presented to him as he takes the handoff, but it's not as big of a hole as it seems. Two unblocked linebackers are waiting at the second level while the 3-technique defensive tackle to the left side quickly penetrates to the inside. Williams is not fooled by the attractive amount of space and cuts the run outside to the right edge, where the right guard and right tackle have their defenders sealed to the inside. Williams picks up eight yards. Williams puts his vision to good use in the screen game. He pinballs his way through traffic on this delayed screen to pick up nine yards, innately cutting into the best available path at every crossroad. Williams can also do damage when flexed out of the backfield. Here, he lines up outside and goes uncovered on a wheel route, extending for a nice grab and holding on through a hit to the legs. On this third-and-goal play from the 1-yard line, Williams lines up outside the numbers on the right side. He is initially covered on the drag route, but as the play continues, Williams improvises and heads for the back pylon. Aaron Rodgers makes one of the most incredible throws you will ever see, and Williams cashes in with a marvelous grab as he pulls it in through the contact and taps his feet in-bounds. Contract estimate The best guess for Williams is that he will get a mid-level deal for the running back position. He is not enough of a game-changing play-maker to earn a top-tier deal, but his well-roundedness and ability to thrive in the passing game should earn him a very solid contract. Here are some of the largest contracts signed by free agent running backs in 2020. Melvin Gordon (Chargers to Broncos): 2 years, $16M ($13.5M guaranteed) Jordan Howard (Eagles to Dolphins): 2 years, $9.8M ($4.8M guaranteed) Todd Gurley (Rams to Falcons): 1 year, $5.5M ($5.5M guaranteed) J.D. McKissic (Lions to Washington): 2 years, $3.3M ($1.0M guaranteed) Peyton Barber (Buccaneers to Washington): 2 years, $3.0M ($600K guaranteed) Carlos Hyde (Texans to Seahawks): 1 year, $2.8M ($750K guaranteed) Leonard Fournette (Jaguars to Buccaneers): 1 year, $2.0M (none guaranteed) Around $3-4 million per year seems like a fair estimate for Williams. As things currently stand, a cap hit of $3.0 million would rank 22nd among running backs in 2021, while a cap hit of $4.0 million would rank 16th. That appears to be a reasonable ballpark for a 26-year-old who may not be a bell-cow who can carry the load, but has few weaknesses and excels in the passing game. Projecting Jets' pursuit Considering that their most accomplished running back under contract being Ty Johnson, the Jets are absolutely in need of some help at the position. However, they are unlikely to make a substantial investment in a running back. The position has become increasingly devalued in the NFL, so it probably wouldn't make sense for a rebuilding team like the Jets to allocate major assets to the spot when they have bigger holes at far more important positions like offensive guard, wide receiver, edge rusher, and cornerback. With that in mind, the Jets will likely be looking for affordable options, especially ones who can be a part of a committee. Over Mike LaFleur's tenure in San Francisco, the 49ers never had a true face at the running back position and always leaned towards a committee approach. When you throw in the state of the position on the Jets roster - two young players under contract in Johnson and La'Mical Perine in addition to a possible re-signing of Josh Adams - it would make sense to think that the Jets are going to target players who will not eat up too many snaps. As long as he does indeed stay in a reasonable price range, Williams checks all of these boxes. He is the prototype committee back, possessing the ability to come in on any down and fluidly execute the fundamental aspects of his job while also boasting the capability to provide solid efficiency as a rusher and receiver in short spurts. He can make a big impact at a sensible cost while still leaving plenty of playing time for the younger options. The LaFleur connection adds fuel to the Jamaal-to-the-Jets fire. When you couple that with Williams' committee-ready toolbox and potentially affordable price tag, it certainly seems like he will be at the top of the Jets' list of desirable running back targets.

New York Jets free agent profile: Green Bay Packers RB Jamaal Williams

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New York Jets free agent profile: Green Bay Packers RB Jamaal Williams

Jamaal Williams is a jack-of-all-trades running back who could be a fantastic bargain for the New York Jets.

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Michael Nania

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