Best Week 8 prop bets for New York Jets-Cincinnati Bengals
The New York Jets (1-5) are massive home underdogs as they host the AFC-leading Cincinnati Bengals (5-2) on Halloween.
Led by second-year quarterback Joe Burrow, Cincinnati has won four of its past five games and would own the top seed in the AFC if the playoffs began today. Burrow leads an offense that ranks seventh in scoring (27.0 points per game).
The Bengals also boast an elite defense that has allowed the fifth-fewest points per game this season (18.3). Edge rusher Trey Hendrickson (6.5 sacks) and cornerback Chidobe Awuzie (7 passes defended) lead the unit.
New York returns home for the first time since they defeated the Tennessee Titans in an overtime thriller on Oct. 3. The Jets remain 1-1 at home this season but are 0-4 on the road. Fortunately for them, seven of their next 11 games are at home.
Cincinnati is 3-1 on the road and has taken three consecutive games outside of Paul Brown Stadium.
This is one of the biggest David-versus-Goliath matchups of the early NFL season. Here are some of the most intriguing prop bets to consider for the game, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Mike White: Under 213.5 passing yards (-110)
Mike White threw for 202 yards in about 2.5 quarters of play after relieving Zach Wilson against the Patriots last week.
However, it took him 32 pass attempts to do so as the Jets were in catch-up mode the entire time he was in the game. He only averaged 6.1 yards per attempt.
White was a check-down artist in his debut, averaging 4.0 air yards per completion. For reference, that rate would be the second-lowest among qualified quarterbacks on the season, beating out only Jared Goff (3.8).
A large chunk of White’s yards were gained on dump-offs to running backs against soft defensive coverages with New England having the game wrapped up. On passes traveling over 10 yards downfield, White was 4-of-10 for 63 yards with a pair of interceptions. He will likely struggle if Cincinnati takes away the short game and makes him push the ball downfield, which is what their game plan will probably be after watching his tape.
Against a Bengals defense that has limited huge gains through the air, allowing the sixth-fewest total yards per completion this season (10.1), it seems unlikely that the ultra-conservative White musters up many big plays, so White will need a boatload of attempts to hit 214 yards.
To boot, Cincinnati has been great at shutting down running backs in the passing game, so White could have a hard time getting all of the dump-off yards he gained last week. The Bengals have allowed 6.4 yards per reception to running backs, the second-lowest rate in the league.
White’s most realistic path to eclipsing 213.5 yards would likely involve a similar scenario to last week: the Jets getting blown out early so White could go pass-heavy and rack up check-down yards. But even if that happens, I’m not sure White is good enough to hit that mark against a team that shuts down the check-downs.
Joe Burrow: Over 263.5 passing yards (-110)
Joe Burrow is averaging 279.4 passing yards per game this season. He has surpassed 263.5 yards in four consecutive games and is facing a Jets team that ranks 25th with 275.0 passing yards per game allowed.
Removing sack yardage, the Jets have allowed opposing quarterbacks to average 287.7 passing yards per game. Four of their six opposing quarterbacks have surpassed 263.5 yards, with the exceptions being Teddy Bridgewater and Mac Jones (first matchup).
Making matters worse for the Jets, they will be without edge rusher Bryce Huff in this game, who is a big piece of their pass rush. That is bad news against Burrow, who ranks second in the NFL with an average of 9.7 yards per attempt when throwing from a clean pocket.
The only three defenses to hold Burrow under 263.5 yards were Minnesota, Chicago, and Pittsburgh, who each rank top-13 in passing defense DVOA. The Jets are ranked 28th. Burrow has gone over 263.5 yards in all four of his games against teams ranked in the bottom half of passing defense DVOA.
Ja’Marr Chase: Over 76.5 receiving yards (-110)
Ja’Marr Chase is averaging 107.7 receiving yards per game and has gone over 76.5 yards in five of his seven games, including each of his last four.
The Jets do have a good cornerback unit that could challenge Chase. New York has allowed the fifth-fewest receiving yards per game to wide receivers (140.5).
However, Chase takes a larger portion of his snaps on the left side of the field (62.3%), where he takes on the opponent’s right-side cornerback. For the Jets, that’s where Brandin Echols (1.52 yards per cover snap allowed) lines up. Echols has been up-and-down this year – it’s left-side corner Bryce Hall (0.84 yards per cover snap allowed) who is the primary reason for New York’s good numbers against wideouts.
Considering that Chase is likely to see much more of Echols than Hall, he should be able to stay hot.
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No first-quarter touchdown by either team (+200)
With +200 odds, this is a great shot at some bang for your buck.
The Jets are a notoriously bad first-quarter team. They have yet to score in the first quarter and are averaging a league-low 10.4 yards per drive on drives that began in the first quarter.
Things are unlikely to improve against the Bengals, who are excellent defensively in the first quarter. Cincinnati has allowed 19.4 yards per drive on drives that started in the first quarter, second-best in the NFL. The Bengals have allowed only two first-quarter touchdowns in seven games.
So, things are looking good in regards to the Jets not scoring a touchdown in the opening period.
On the other side of the ball is where things get a bit tricky.
The Jets have allowed a first-quarter touchdown in four of their six games and each of their previous two. This muddies things up a bit.
However, Cincinnati’s offense has not been great in the first quarter. They have scored a first-quarter touchdown in only three of their seven games.
With fantastic odds of the Jets not punching the ball in and seemingly 50-50 odds of the Bengals failing to do so, a +200 bet for no first-quarter touchdowns feels like a worthy play.
Any Time Touchdown / Moneyline Parlay: Cincinnati D/ST / Cincinnati Bengals (+450)
The Jets rank second in the NFL with 12 turnovers but are yet to allow a non-offensive touchdown. They’re overdue for one of those turnovers to turn into a score.
Mike White should offer up at least one takeaway for Cincinnati. He threw two interceptions in less than three quarters of play in his NFL debut and also tossed up a jump ball that should’ve been intercepted but was broken up by Denzel Mims.
In his preseason career, White has had 11 turnover-worthy plays over 182 dropbacks, a brutal rate of 6.0% that would put him on pace to have about two turnover-worthy plays in a full regular-season start.
Even as a conservative game manager, White is fairly turnover-prone. He will present the Bengals’ defense with opportunities to score.
