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Jets-Texans odds: Curiously low projection for Jets RB highlights best prop bets

Ty Johnson, NY Jets, Stats, DFS, Fantasy, Keeper
Ty Johnson, New York Jets, Getty Images

Best Week 12 prop bets for New York Jets-Houston Texans

Sparked by the return of rookie quarterback Zach Wilson, the New York Jets (2-8) are aiming to put together a strong seven-game finish to the 2021 season that builds momentum they can carry over into 2022.

The Houston Texans (2-8) will be Wilson’s first opponent following his return from a four-game absence. Houston is 2-2 under the leadership of quarterback Tyrod Taylor, who helped the team pull off a road upset against the Tennessee Titans last week.

New York is looking for its first road win of the season after an 0-5 start away from MetLife Stadium. The Texans are 1-3 at home. Houston is listed as a 2.5-point favorite at most outlets.

Here are some of the most intriguing prop bets to consider for the game, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Elijah Moore Alt Receiving Yards: 80+ (+280)

Elijah Moore’s over-under for receiving yards is set at 53.5 (-110). Taking the over on that number is a good play, but I feel confident enough in Moore to push that number up in exchange for greater rewards.

Moore is averaging 84.0 yards per game over his past four contests, going for at least 80 yards in two of those four. He has been incredible on a per-play basis, ranking fourth among all wide receivers in yards per route run from Weeks 8-11 (2.92).

The rookie achieved those numbers despite getting only 41.8 snaps and 7.8 targets per game – a sizable workload, but not a “true No. 1” workload.

With more snaps and targets to go around against the Texans due to a couple of key injuries, Moore should receive an increased volume of opportunities that allows him to extrapolate his incredible efficiency for big numbers.

The Jets will be without Corey Davis and Michael Carter this week. They have accounted for 92 of the Jets’ 390 targets this season (23.6%).

As the team’s no-doubt No. 1 receiver today, Moore is poised to hog many of the targets vacated by the Davis-Carter duo, which should allow him to soar beyond the season-high total of 11 targets that he saw last week (which he turned into 141 yards, showing what he can do with a large workload).

Houston struggles to stop the opponent’s best outside weapon. The Texans are allowing 76.1 yards per game to opposing No. 1 wide receivers, ranking fifth-worst in the NFL. They have allowed at least one wide receiver to eclipse 80 yards in seven of their 10 games this season.

I would feel comfortable about hitching my wagon to Moore this week considering the opponent and the vacated targets that the Jets will have to spread around. The best play for me would be 80+ yards at +280 odds, but the more aggressive plays – 90+ yards at +400 and 110+ yards at +850 – are worth considering if you’re feeling lucky. The stars are aligned for Moore to explode.

Alternate Elijah Moore bets:

  • 25+ receiving yards (-750)
  • 40+ receiving yards (-250)
  • 50+ receiving yards (-140)
  • 60+ receiving yards (+118)
  • 70+ receiving yards (+188)
  • 80+ receiving yards (+280)
  • 90+ receiving yards (+400)
  • 110+ receiving yards (+850)

Ty Johnson Alt Rushing Yards: 60+ (+750)

With Michael Carter sidelined, the oddsmakers are much more optimistic about Tevin Coleman’s potential rushing output than Ty Johnson’s, putting Coleman’s rushing yardage over-under at 37.5 (-110) and Johnson’s at 25.5 (-110).

I think this can be exploited.

Yes, Coleman out-carried Johnson five to one last week. That ratio is likely the driving force behind the oddsmakers’ rushing expectations.

However, Coleman and Johnson played the same number of snaps: 20 apiece.

In fact, that was the first instance of this season in which Coleman matched Johnson’s playing time. Johnson out-snapped Coleman by at least eight snaps in every other game that the two backs have played together this season.

Coleman and Johnson should share the workload with Carter absent. Coleman figures to get a slight edge in carries while Johnson takes the brunt of the passing-game workload, but Coleman’s carry advantage will probably not be large. Johnson will likely still get a healthy share of opportunities: I’d guess around 10 carries is a realistic estimation.

Sixty yards may be tough for Johnson to reach in the ballpark of 10 carries, but at +750 odds, it is a very reasonable number for a player who figures to receive half of the snaps in the backfield.

Plus, the Jets are facing an abysmal Houston run defense. The Texans rank 30th in rushing yards allowed per game (133.5) and 26th in rushing yards allowed per carry (4.5).

It is also worth noting that New York’s run game should improve going forward with Laurent Duvernay-Tardif taking Greg Van Roten’s place at right guard. The Jets rushed for a season-high 5.7 yards per carry in Duvernay-Tardif’s first start against the Dolphins last week.

If you’re not feeling aggressive enough to make the 60-yard play at +750, Johnson’s more conservative alternate props are still intriguing. You can nearly triple your money with only 40 rushing yards from Johnson.

Alternate Ty Johnson bets:

  • 25+ rushing yards (+106)
  • 40+ rushing yards (+280)
  • 50+ rushing yards (+450)
  • 60+ rushing yards (+750)

Any Time Touchdown / Moneyline Parlay: Ryan Griffin / New York Jets (+800)

Houston has allowed six touchdown receptions to tight ends, tied for the fourth-most in the NFL. The Texans have allowed a tight end to score in five of their 10 games.

Ryan Griffin only has one touchdown this season (thrown by Josh Johnson against the Colts) but there are reasons to believe that he will find the end zone more often throughout the rest of the year.

Zach Wilson has shown signs of favoring tight ends. In his final season at BYU, his favorite touchdown-scoring target was tight end Isaac Rex, whose total of 12 touchdown receptions was four more than any other player. Wilson also threw two touchdowns to tight end Tyler Kroft in the preseason.

Wilson had a chance to hit Griffin for a game-winning touchdown against the Titans in overtime of the Jets’ eventual Week 4 win, but he missed short on a wide-open throw that Griffin would have easily scored on.

Griffin has also seen an uptick in production recently. He was averaging 1.4 receptions on 2.6 targets for 10.1 yards over his first seven games. Over the last three weeks, he is averaging 2.7 receptions on 4.3 targets for 29.3 yards.

It’s not too far-fetched to imagine a tight end with those numbers finding the end zone – especially when you consider that Griffin has played over 70% of the offensive snaps in every game he has played without Tyler Kroft on the field.

A Griffin touchdown and a Jets win would not seem like that surprising of an outcome today, and yet, it can turn one dollar into nine.

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verge tibbs
2 years ago

Too late now but for future .. anybody tell me the proper things to click to get to the alternate player props? Really wanted to get on that emoore over 110 yds action. Its draftkings app right? I was only able to find emoore 57.5 yds at a measly -110 so i did some parlays to raise it up

verge tibbs
2 years ago
Reply to  Michael Nania

Ahh.. cool, thanks. I’ll see if they have some of those sweet money matching promos n get an account there. Appreciated.