How well did Zach Wilson perform against the Buffalo Bills?
Throughout the 2021 season, I will be running a weekly series of breakdowns in which I analyze the performance of the New York Jets’ quarterback(s) by grading every single one of their plays on a 0-to-10 scale.
My goal with this grading system is to capture the true quality of the quarterback’s performance. Box score statistics can be misleading, as they do not account for a variety of factors that determine whether a quarterback performed well or poorly on a given play.
After re-watching each play on the All-22 film, I grade them on a 0-to-10 scale and then take the average of all plays to form a 0-to-100 overall score with 50 being approximately league-average (based on my studying of numerous other quarterback performances across the league).
Here are just a handful of the primary factors that are taken into account in the grading of each play, and a basic description of what I’m looking for:
- Decision-making (Did the QB choose the best available option or did he leave a better play on the field?)
- Throw difficulty (Clean pocket or pressured? Wide open or tight window? Stationary or on the move? More difficult throws are more valuable.)
- Accuracy/placement (Even if the pass is completed, was the ball placed in the best possible spot or did the receiver have to make an extra effort to catch it?)
- Game situation – score, time, field position, down and distance (Good decisions based on the clock/situation are crucial. Playing the sticks is also important – it is not a good play to complete a 5-yard out on third-and-10 while a 15-yard dig is open, but a 5-yard out on third-and-2 is good.)
Ultimately, it’s all about context. Not all 40-yard completions are created equal. Not all interceptions are created equal. You need to watch a play to understand whether the quarterback did a good or bad job. The raw result of a play cannot give you that answer.
When we analyze every play on film multiple times and grade the quarterback’s individual effort independent of his surroundings or the on-paper outcome of the play, we get a much better estimation of how well he actually played.
Of course, keep in mind that these grades are subjective. They are but one man’s opinion and are not gospel. Feel free to let me know your takes on my grades for these performances.
Let’s dig into everything that went into my 0-to-100 grade for Zach Wilson‘s rookie-year finale against the Buffalo Bills. Was Wilson quietly decent? Or was he truly as bad as his utterly atrocious box score stats suggested?
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Michael…thank you for this feature each week. It helps those of us interested in contextually understanding what this kid QB is really doing. Your conclusions about him needing to improve his pressure throws and his knowing how not take avoidable sacks are spot on. He also still needs to continue the mechanics of hitting the “easy throws”. He is way better now than even a month ago, but it’s not where he needs to be to be above average or elite. His reading of defenses has improved noticeably. I like the trajectory Zach is on to end the season. With the typical off-season growth that most rookie QBs have plus an improved supporting cast and a year of experience in the system, absent injuries, next year should continue Zach’s climb to an above average NFL QB.
Thanks for reading! Fun to do it, I’m always fascinated by analyzing the details of a QB’s performance and really digging deep to figure out exactly how well he did at executing his own role, regardless of what his stats were.
Agreed, if he continues on the usual young QB trajectory, he should become at least an average QB in Year 2, sort of like the leap that Josh Allen took from 2018-2019, improving from atrocious to OK. He really improved his long-term outlook with that solid second half of the season. Prior to that, you’d have to grasp at straws to find hope. He had so many holes in his game. But he corrected many of those holes in-season over an extended stretch of games, which is promising.
After watching his games extensively during his last season at BYU, and knowing how bare the Jets cupboard was, his rookie season went about the way I expected: slow early with gradual improvement as he got more experience. In hindsight, the time off plus getting Beck really helped. The one thing that surprised and bothered me was the short area inaccuracies though there were yips here and there at BYU to suggest it could be an issue when confronted by the speed of the NFL. His highs in college however were really high once he nailed down understanding of the offense. I believe that capability is there in the NFL if complemented by a solid surrounding cast and he maintains his focus on dedication to the game.